TheLazyBrother

TheLazyBrother

This my interpretation of the advance in German stock market that started in 2003 and would end in 2025

TheLazyBrother

SPX is deeply oversold, only 10% of all stocks being above 50 dMA, and sitting right on 200 dMA (not shown). At the same time it is breaking a down trend line, and showing mometum divergence against both RSI and MACD.

TheLazyBrother

SP500 succesfully retested 200dma, broken down trendline and 0.618 retracement of the January rally. A/D line is on the lower pane, note the strong underlying breath. This is a low risk buying opportunity, as support is just under current prices. Rally may extend to 4600-4800 area in next few months.

TheLazyBrother

SPX broke two important resistance levels: the downtrendline from the peak, and 200d ma. At the same time, AD line is surging and taking out previous peak one after the other. We can conclude that FAANG's were dragging the indicies lower, while the broad market was rallying for some time already. Now that MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, TSLA, FB, AMD, NVDA, etc... seem to have...

TheLazyBrother

NDX is the weakest index, as TSLA and AMZN are lagging the "old economy" represented by DJI. Thanksgiving is behind us, so it is time to go short and fade the overextended market. Pivot is a pipe dream, JPow wants the market down. He will pivot only AFTER market crashes. Liquidity is being withdrawn, and breath is worsening. Be short into the FED meeting and 12/16 OPEX.

TheLazyBrother

After an impulse to the downside, Russel 2k seems to have completed a double three correction WXY right into the 0.618 fib level. Time to press the short side. Mind your sizing.

TheLazyBrother

Russel 2k bottomed with the rest of the market in October, and retraced in three waves, marked with ABC circled. Off the PPI high, the index dropped in five waves, and is now drifting sideways in making abc moves. Note that other indicies are all over the place, diverging quite a bit. The weakness is primerily in XLK, XLY and XLC, some other sectors doing ok. We...

TheLazyBrother

SPX retraced September sell off right into 62% mark, drawing a corrective abc structure, while breath is deteriorating. Tomorrow is the OPEX, expect all indicies to resume the bear.

TheLazyBrother

Market corrected in three waves W-X-Y, and broke on the FED day following the hawkish Jay Powell rhetoric. 3700 level showed support, and several bounces from that level ensued, not lookin overly inspiring i.e. the structure looks corrective. The only caveat, a warning sign for this stance is USD weakness on Friday i.e. across the board strength in commodities....

TheLazyBrother

Strong dollar has been a drag on gold prices. But despite historic rally in USD, gold held relatively well. All speculative money is out of the market as suggested by COT, and momentun is waining on the downside.

TheLazyBrother

It seems that SP500 has completed the corrective move near 50% retracement, structural resistance and w=y measurement. Price has been contained by parallel channel, which would mean that the surge was not sufficiently strong out of the bottom. Usually bull surge out of the bear market is relantless with no or shallow retracements. Keep in mind that this...

TheLazyBrother

After 5 waves down, an upward correction is unfolding. For now it is taking a form of double combo that should reach w=y target at 3915, but could morf into a triple combo to shoot for 4000 level. So, patience is required for a week or two before pulling the trigger.

TheLazyBrother

Curiously, on the day of Sep CPI, prices were drawn to the exact same level that they were at right before the Aug CPI was released.

TheLazyBrother

After five waves up, we have a possible double tree correction lower where W = Y. RSI is diverging against the price, showing waning momentum to the downside.

TheLazyBrother

Gold pop-up on CPI number, but quickly turned red. The move seems exhausted, momentum indicatotors diverging from the price action. One should now be patient, and wait for an ABC correction to build a long position.

TheLazyBrother

10/2 curve has inverted for the fourth time in the last 35 years. There was a brief inversion in 2019, which was only marginal and not marked on the chart, but its consequences do not contradict the following conlcusion to the least. Every time, without exception, 10/2 inversion meant substantially lower 10Y rates (bond bull market) for a prolonged period of...

TheLazyBrother

NDX bubble topped with a truncation, at least it seems like the best interpretation to me. I have put it forward as "just an idea" a few months ago, but it was never negated, on the contrary. Presented count suggests that we are in the eye of the storm, and that we will be crashing in the 3rd wave pretty soon.

TheLazyBrother

There was an epic rally in energy. However, NG futures are clearly showing that momentum is waning, as RSI and MACD are showing divergence against the price. Does it mean go short? Not necessarily, but if you are long, it might be wise to take some or all of your profits off the table.