The US Dollar softened a touch following the 75BPS hike by the Fed and yesterdays US GDP report confirmed that the US economy has now entered recession with the economy having shrunk by 0.9% annualised QoQ in the second quarter and this is now the second quarterly contraction. This appears to have been pretty well priced in, however the JPY rallied valiantly and...
The triple divergence of the daily RSI points to a significant loss of upside momentum and is giving a red warning flag that we may well see the start of a corrective move lower. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting,...
Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient....
I just had to pop this chart on here this morning – it is the CBOT monthly wheat chart. It demonstrates that no matter what your time frame that it is important to look at long term charts and it also demonstrates the importance of resistance. There are two resistance points to mention on here – the first is the 1349 2008 high and the second is the shallow...
One of the things that has really bothered me over the years is the amount of bad analysis out there that claims to be technical analysis. I am perfectly happy for anybody to publish comments on TA as long as the analysis holds water (and no, the vomiting camel is NOT a pattern!!). I am sorry this is going to sound like a bit of a rant, but I think it is important...
Just wanted to highlight for you this morning the importance of trendlines. Good trendlines are like a good wine – the older they are the better they become! A 3-month trendline is more important than a 3-week trendline for example. They also help to enforce discipline; they can act as entry or exit zones and they can help with timing. This one on the Crude Oil...
The US 10Y yield continues to plough higher. We had been watching the support at 2.73 (end of April low) for a possible break but in the end, this held several attempts, and the market has recovered well. This support was reinforced by the 55-day ma, which lies at 2.78 currently and this has left the market well-placed to tackle the 3.20 May high. In the past I...
I sometimes like to use Andrew’s pitchforks on my charts, to help me to determine if we are coming close to a break point and I need to start paying more attention to a particular asset class, and I think we may have an interesting one on Bitcoin – take a look below. For those unfamiliar with this tool….I have taken this from John Murphy’s Chart school……’ Andrews'...
We suspect that the US Dollar up move that has been in play for a little over one year is most likely done for now. Firstly, the market has failed to maintain its bid to head above the 103.91/86 peaks seen in 2017 and 2020 AND the daily RSI has a large divergence reflecting a severe loss of upside momentum. This is seen when price makes a new high BUT the RSI...
On May 11th I wrote about the S & P …. the first area of support is 3948 (base of channel on the daily chart ) and the 38.2% retracement at 3815 (of the move 2020-2022). On Friday the low was 3859, well within this band. We also note the divergence of the daily RSI (relative strength indicator). This measures momentum and we can clearly see that although the price...
Investors are facing a horrible combination of slowing growth, rising inflation and rising interest rates and are rightly worried that this will trigger a recession. This is happening with the backdrop of a war and of course Covid. Yesterday’s sell off was triggered by Chinese Export data which indicated that the expected recession may arrive sooner rather than...
I recently attended a talk by Stephen Hoad on behalf of the STA for the CISI, where he discussed his use of Renko charts. Well, it piqued my interest and I decided to take a closer look myself. Renko charts were invented in Japan, they ignore time and just use price changes that meet a minimum requirement, which to my mind sounds exactly like Point & Figure...
Much has been said about the Nasdaq entering a new bearish phase, but to my mind the red flag warning signs were there technically from the beginning of the year. If we take a brief glance at the weekly chart, we can see the MACD indicator was below zero from mid-December 2021 onwards, when the market had only just reached a new high in November. The market was...
A somewhat confused picture has emerged over the past few days on the USD/BRL chart. I have what looks like a triple top on the monthly and weekly charts, which any chartist will tell you is BEARISH. But…. Over the past couple of days on the daily chart we have what looks like a double bottom which has just completed, which is bullish short-term pattern – so what...
Cable or GBP/USD did not finish last week well and has started this week by seeing another dive lower. Taking a look at a weekly chart I can see the following information – we are in new lows for the year and about to hit the 1.2675 September 2021 low. Is this likely to hold? It is possible – the weekly RSI is low (but not showing sign of divergence currently) but...
I think I need to re-visit something I wrote on the 17th January on the Silver market, at the time silver was trading at 23.04…. to my eye it looks even more interesting now, it has finally started to lift off the 21.17 pivot and the obvious targets are the highs around 28/30 seen back in 2020. This is what I wrote in January…’ I was chatting to a techie friend...
While there has been much commentary about the US Dollar Index hitting 100.00, we note two things from a technical perspective – the first is a shooting star pattern on the candlestick charts and the second is that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the recent high. This happens when price makes a new high, but the oscillator does not – it is otherwise known as...
We have been talking for months now about the US Dollar going higher and with another strong month for jobs growth last week fundamental data and the technical view remain aligned. We thought that we would take a look at the USD/JPY chart this morning, which has recently broken above the 20-year resistance line and looks well placed for further gains to the...