Why look at weekly charts? We look at weekly charts because it reduces volatility when scanning for stocks. This is especially important during bear markets when the stocks are more volatile. What do we want to see? Base depth no more than 30% Close on the weekly bars near the highs Closes are tight (about 1-1.5% of each other) Peak closes on...
The the S&P 500 bear market statistics for the past 50+ years show that the average number of Failed Follow Through Days (FTDs) is 5. However, in the stagflation market of 1973-74, characterised by rising inflation and declining economic growth, there were a shocking 9 failed FTDs! If we exclude the two short bear markets of 1982 (only 53 days) and 2020 (V shape),...
The market is ready to enter its "Best 6 Months" as the calendar transitions from October to November. 👉 Yale Hirsch , the man behind the creation of the Stock Trader's Almanac, originally described the "Best 6 Months" tendency in 1986. The "Best 6 Months" idea is a straightforward one. Hirsch's analysis indicates that during the past several decades, a...
Taking the second half of XLE here. Second half has win of +9.14% First half had win of +6.65% Blended win rate: 7.95% Initial Stop Loss was 4.36% hence this is 1.82R win
This is a Power Play (High tight flag) setup. We had advancement of +150% and Correction of -15% Relative Strength is outperforming the market Volume is mostly bullish Bought on 28OCT and added on 31OCT Formed a Cup and Handle Base on top of the Power Play
Here are the dates when the next wave of potential True Market Leaders (TMLs) have broken out. We are seeing mixed action. 🟨 Yellow notes shows the stocks that are still above their pivot point 🟥 Red shows those who have been more volatile and have breached the pivot point
There is an important study, that estimates the success of a Follow Through Days depending on how close a Distribution Day is observed. Look at the annotated chart on SPX. In essence if we observe Distribution Days close to the FTD then the probability of Failure is high. (Failure is defined by undercut of the Day 1 Rally Day ). Study is courtesy of IBD...
Some notes that made SWAV a lower prob setup. The big drops near and below the 50SMA, took quite a long time to gain back. This is a sign that it is not institutional buying supporting the wedge and breakout.
This might continue to run, but I want to take profits into strength +6.65% I am only taking half of the position. For the rest of position stop loss is at break-even. This way I am GUARANTEED profit for at least +3.33% on the whole position. With this technique I have massively improved my worst case scenario. Probability is high for a pullback.
IBD Market School indicator suggest we have a clear sky to start testing waters. Here is what the methodology has flagged after the recent Rally Day. Annotations 1 = Most recent unbroken Rally Day 2 = Follow Through Day 3 = Confirming Buy signal (named B3) 4 = Additional Follow Through Day + Confirming Buy Signal (B8) 5 = Permitable Market Exposure as per the...
HOW-TO instruction This video shows how my custom MonAlerty indicator works for TradingView that evaluates Post-Buy signals. I am very excited about building this for you since it has made a massive impact in my trading. In this video you will see: 👉 How to add the indicator 👉 What are the customisable settings 👉 How the Pop up function works 👉 How you can print...
- Strong sector and industry - Good consolidation - Volume signature is mostly bullish
Starting a small position in $NBIX Industry group is #7 Stage 2 uptrend Highlighted volume bars are mostly bullish Base on top of base setup
I like the structure I like the sector I like the fundamentals tiny position, to teast waters
This is @ +4.34% winner. I will move stop loss to break-even to improve worst case scenario.
- nice base, VCP characteristic - one of the few good plays here with a good relative strength and early Stage 2 characteristics - since no Follow through Day I buy very tiny position
- established position at 37 - i like the volume - i like the RS action
- i like the base - i like the volume patterns - i like the RS moves