TradeWithAdam

TradeWithAdam Updated 

It doesn't get much more clear as the line in the chart above. We are right at resistance in my most despised trade war stock, DE. The reluctance for this stock to roll over despite tons of bad news, terrible earnings and terrible guidance has been uncanny. I think DE is especially vulnerable here with no good news in the trade war in sight. Let's short DE...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

The US stock market has done an amazing job of absorbing bad news lately. Hopes that the Fed would continue to lower rates have buoyed stocks despite rather bad news in the US-China trade war. Friday reached a new apex in the trade war as Donald Trump "ordered" companies to leave China after China retaliated with more tariffs on US goods. The price action in...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

TLRY is currently flirting with (and breaking) a 9 month downtrend line. We can see this strong action throughout all of the pot stocks this morning. I believe this may be the start of a change in trend and may be a good time to be long pot stocks given their secular nature against the backdrop of a newly volatile stock market. Let's buy TLRY on the trendline...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Let's take a shot shorting the S&P here @ 2930. See the chart above for my reasoning -- posting this quickly! Short S&P @ 2930 Target 1: 2915 Target 2: 2890 Stop: 2940

TradeWithAdam Updated 

GOOGL reported great earnings on July 25th and gapped up accordingly. The overnight gap from 1143 to 1228 is nearly filled now that the price lingers in the 1165 level amid broader market weakness due to trade tensions. On a purely technical basis, as seen in the charts above, GOOGL will likely find gap support or trendline support for a bounce before it goes...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

A quick note to suggest that we are running into major resistance here at 2885-2892 in the S&P 500 after a spectacular 157 point rally in a few trading hours. This jaw-dropping rally is all off of the hopes of the US Fed cutting rates 2-3 times in the very near future. This, of course, is while the tariff and trade picture is more unclear than ever. I believe...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

In the middle of May, Deere reported earnings during what was a massive cascading sell-off in its stock. Their main issues for poor guidance were the China tariffs and the fact that they had begun to hurt the revenues of farmers and therefore the machinery that Deere sold to farmers. The stock took yet another spill after earnings and managed to bottom around...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Since the turn of the New Year, bears have been calling for an end to this unstoppable rally. Everyone, including myself, seemingly wanted to short a bounce in the market and we all got crushed. Can you blame us? Volatility often begets volatility and it seemed that a recession was right on time with the current bull market's length reaching record territory. ...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Gold has been extremely out of favor lately as stocks have rallied and market participants seem to be unconcerned with inflation. With gold stuck in a downtrend since the middle of February, I have been lucky that my last few calls have worked out (with the exception of the most recent one). Once again, however, we find ourselves at an interesting level. In the...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

In my last two gold trades, I took advantage of support and trendline patterns while having a bullish view on gold as a way to play what I believed to be an inflationary environment. While both trades (see here and here ) worked quite well, gold has spent the past few weeks languishing after a swift move lower. Instead of gold, oil and the stock market have...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

This is an update of my prior call in gold which worked out about as well as a call could have. After ricocheting from the illustrated overhead resistance line twice since our last trade, gold is now going in for a third test as I write this. While it may not break this time, we should stay on watch for a potential breakout as a breach above this line...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

WYNN topped out in May of 2018 at $200 and has since plummeted. The great S&P recovery of 2019 has taken this stock from $90 to $125 in just two short months. We currently find WYNN in a downtrend, counter to its more intermediate-term uptrend. From a fundamental perspective, WYNN is seen to be very tied to the China trade war due to their presence in Macau. ...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Back in January, I made a call that gold was likely to break to the upside . It did, and proceeded to rally much further than I targeted. In the past few weeks, however, gold has since faltered and has been dealt a fast and precipitous move to the downside. Fundamentally, gold should be well supported here as the Fed has essentially telegraphed that they are...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Constellation Brands has enjoyed a massive run-up in the past 6 years and has come sharply off of its highs (around $230) in the past 5 months. STZ is a juggernaut in the alcohol industry and has deserved its high stock price given a very strong earnings growth trajectory. Lately, however, money has come out of the traditional vice stocks (alcohol and...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

It's official. As of tonight, China and the US are starting to put pen to paper on a trade deal. The overnight futures rushed to 2798 when Reuters broke the story. This news comes after weeks of hearing about a 'trade deal coming' and the market pushing higher on every notice. As I type this, the futures are coming off of their session highs (now around 2794)...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

The market has been in a never-ending buy-the-dip mode lately. With the Fed out of the picture and Trump tweeting about a China trade deal everyday, the stock market has seen very few decliners. Picking shorts has been a losing battle for 8 weeks now. I've found that it's never a good idea to arbitrarily pick tops unless I can give myself a solid technical...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

The other day I pointed out that oil was potentially trying to breakout with price action above $55. I saw a lot of forecasters calling for $60 oil on the move and the price action seemed less than stellar, so I closed the trade early. In the past few sessions, we've seen oil find support towards the bottom of its $54-51 range and it has set a picture-perfect...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

A quick note here to take a shot shorting the S&P 500. Thanks to the Fed, the market has plowed directly into 200 day resistance with almost zero pullbacks in over a month. Today the S&P took a valiant shot at breaking through the 200 day MA but seems to have failed without actually reaching it. A few things I am watching that support this idea: the...