Chart pattern:
Cup and handle
- Cup completed. Handle forming
- Handle is a falling wedge (squeezing declining volatility) which is bullish in an uptrend
Long term (years) uptrend channel still intact.
- more room for upside.
Open interest indicator is low on a monthly timescale.
- which corresponds to squeezing (declining) volatility
All in all long term...
Quick summary
Chart elements:
Bullish: cup and handle, double bottom (adam and eve)
Fundamental elements:
Bearish dollar: Weakening dollar (QE to infinity)
- us dollar losing its global reserve currency status
- 25% of all usd in circulation since 1944 is created in 2020 alone
Corporate adoption and fomo
- paypal
- microstrategies
- square
- etc
sidenotes
DEFI = emergent high layer solutions = probable new money flows
YFI = one of the most well known defi coins = new money flows drawn to it. ( btc of defi)
extremely low circulating supply of only 30k
all coins minted.
fair launch
waiting for a correction back down to 14k usd per coin before considering about entering.
Quick summary
Bullish reasons (charts):
1. Multi decade uptrend within a channel
- currently under reversion to mean
2. Cup completed now forming a handle.
- retracement since a year long uptrend (impulsive)
3. Descending wedge is about to be broken.
4. retest of multi year resistance at 1800 (perfect psychological number) turned support.
Bullish reasons...
Chart elements:
Multiple consolidation structures broken. If it closes above 14000, the only resistance zone left is the 20000 all time high.
Fundamental elements:
Supply shock (after 2020 halving)
Current institutional buying (microstrategies, square, etc)
Inflation (mass usd and currency printing around the globe)
- Election results regardless of a biden or...
Simplified analysis
Overall thesis:
1. Multi-year support (1994-2020) that spanned decades had just recently broke.
Price action
1. Recovery from an impulsive selloff
2. Confluence of resistance zones
- Recovery heading for a retest of the broken multi-year support turned resistance.
- Also heading for a retest of a horizontal resistance (in blue).
Trend...
Long term downtrend
Confluence of resistance (horizontal and diagonal at the 71.3 value) => Probabilities align to the downside => Great Reward to risk ratio.
- rising wedge (diagonal resistance)
- horizontal resistance (that spans years)
Observe how price reacts at the psychological level, 70.0
Keep a look out for opportunities (strengthening trend integrity)...
Probabilities favor a down move:
1) Regime filter: Strong downtrend.
2) Broken support turned resistance
- resistance respected by a bounce downwards when tested
3) High reward to risk ratio
- a meaningful stop loss placed at the psychological level of 0.64
Trade type:
1) Long term trend following: 2 weeks to 3 months time frame.
- pyramiding down as trend...
