Spanish stock market IBEX 35. CRITICAL 6000 support. Another 10% lower and it will be at 23 year lows! The TECHNICIAN term is "head and shoulders".....going to ZERO. The TECHNICAL term is "screwed". Need a miracle.
There are 3 types of price gaps in markets and all 3 are visible on the TSLA chart. Today is likely the final exhaustion gap and the stock price could return to 600 very quickly.
Despite being ultimately bearish very long term (several years) my med term view is currently looking for the scenario where we see a low in coming days weeks around the 2600 zone give or take a bit (this will be circa -25% from the highs) for a substantial rebound in an ongoing bigger picture wave 4) triangle pattern that could last through the end of 2020...
GDX Looks like need a bit more downside to maybe 23.50 area (c=a in a wave 2 of C) Before we can base and go higher in a 3rd wave of C
RUT is coming into potential buy zone Support at 1260 (Dec 2018 low) and 1240 (wave c/y equal to wave a/w) RSI at 25 oversold territory
IWM (Russell small caps) is at key support and uptrend level of 126 Oversold so getting close to a decent bounce imo
Similar story to Utilities When defensives are down as much as the market (-5%) you know you are in trouble Again, I would have to say this seems like throwing the bay out with the bath water type of investor selling (indiscriminate) so we may be getting closer to a short term oversold low
XLI (industrials ETF) at kep uptrend support from 2009 lows Important to hold these sorts of levels if market is to move higher directly from here Otherwise a decisive break would be longer term bearish RSI is at 2011 levels
XLU (Utilities ETF) is down 5% on the day.... a sign that the market is in trouble....but but.....One could argue that this is "throwing the baby out with the bath water" type of investor behaviour....ie a potential puke indicator to be followed by a rebound Having said that the major uptrend since the GFC doesnt have big support until 53-54 area (another -10% lower)
XLF (Financials ETF) at a key level around 23.....long term trendline from 2011 (note RSI also at lows last seen 2011) and also within 4% of the Dec 2018 spike low support. With the FED expected to slash and burn rates next week the worst of the decline for banks etc may be "in the price" and may see a bounce (short term) at least
Ridiculous move in SPCE From $7 to $34 in 10 weeks NSANITY Huge mkt cap, basically zero revenues and huge losses
I have bee looking for 186 level on bond futures (100% Fib extension of waves 1 through 3). Fell just a tad short on the spike this evening. May be enough for now at least s/t....smells like we may be getting a washout trade (unless of course a fin instn bank or fund is the wrong way round and leveraged up the wazoo....in which case 2008 redux here we come)
Yes I know I am not going to win the popularity stakes among the equity permabulls for this post/view but here it is. I see 5 waves higher from March 2009 finished at Jan 2018 TOP (all time high). Since then 3 wave correction down in wave A (or W) and three wave rally back up in wave B (or X). It looks to me like we are missing a big leg lower - either as wave C...
Over the coming weeks I will continue to post some of my (maybe controversial) 2020 predictions. US Yield Curve (10y-3mo). Next few weeks: up to +60bps 1q/2q pullback to maybe 0bps Rest of 2020: rapid rise +200bps
AUDJPY, traditionally a marker for risk on/risk off has shown a complete DISCONNECT from equity indices (SPX = orange line) over the last 3-4 months. This rally in stocks is UNSUSTAINABLE. AUDJPY today potentially turning lower and could pressage a turn around for stocks over coming days/weeks.
Longer term view remains unchanged as it has for last year or so......ultimately headed lower to test/break $25 in final wave .5 green of C) red Medium term looking for Crude to take out $40 level coming few months. Short term, don't be fooled by the "bounce" from 49+ to 52+.
With the pop above 52.20 on 4h charts this morning Oil has fulfilled criteria for a simple flat a-b-c correction from recent 49+ lows and ready to head lower again shortly This aligns with other signs for risk off imminently JPY crosses have rebounded into decent Fib retracement zones SPX looks to be out of steam and more interestingly China A50 has met Fib...
I am sticking to my long held belief that the DAX made an important top 2 years ago based on a picturesque Elliott Wave count from 2009 post GFC lows. Over the last 2 years we have had a down leg (2018) wave A or W. Then an upleg (2019) wave B or X and now re-testing the ATH. My view remains that we are about to have another major corrective leg lower during 2020...