When VIX closes above 18 (and I say when not if) then the stock market will get well and truly hammered...... Don't shoot the messenger FOMO permabulls
Trading View thinks US 10yr yield went to ZERO this morning LOL
Nothing has changed in terms of the view on Oil Fundamentals are still poor despite recent Libya/Venezuela events. News today suggests OPEC could increase production again come June (if they aren't cheating already). Supply is going to increase whilst global econ slowdown will impinge demand plus inexorable move to EVs and solar/wind/alt energy etc to take its...
SPCE doing a Tesla dotcom ramp before it runs out of fumes and returns to earth $5bn valuation on $2m of revenues (no profits obviously) Shares from $7 to $27 in 9 weeks.... You do the maths.... INSANITY - seller at 27 small position stop 35 target back at 10 or lower
With the pop above 52.20 on 4h charts this morning Oil has fulfilled criteria for a simple flat a-b-c correction from recent 49+ lows and ready to head lower again shortly This aligns with other signs for risk off imminently JPY crosses have rebounded into decent Fib retracement zones SPX looks to be out of steam and more interestingly China A50 has met Fib...
With the pop above 52.20 on 4h charts this morning Oil has fulfilled criteria for a simple flat a-b-c correction from recent 49+ lows and ready to head lower again shortly This aligns with other signs for risk off imminently JPY crosses have rebounded into decent Fib retracement zones SPX looks to be out of steam and more interestingly China A50 has met Fib...
With the pop above 52.20 on 4h charts this morning Oil has fulfilled criteria for a simple flat a-b-c correction from recent 49+ lows and ready to head lower again shortly This aligns with other signs for risk off imminently JPY crosses have rebounded into decent Fib retracement zones SPX looks to be out of steam and more interestingly China A50 has met Fib...
Similar to recently formed idea on DOW futures Potential H+S top forming Resistance for right shoulder around 13350 IF pattern confirmed below neckline 12900 then TARGET is circa 12150
Resistance on front futures contract around 28850 area for right hand shoulder IF the pattern is confirmed (break of neckline around 28100-150) then target is circa 27,000
People often ask me why I like to trade the DAX (given that it is not the largest of stock market indices....I do also trade US markets mostly and occasionally HK/NKY). The answer is because the DAX is often a technically gorgeous market to trade in terms of clear patterns (EW and classical like H+S etc) and provides clear entry and exit (stop and t/p) levels. It...
TSLA is in a blow-off top This is a bubble and eventually will pop Sell here 630 on open (could go even higher to 680 so stop above 700) expecting a refill (at minimum) back test of open gap at 430.
For those that like the market topping action via the A-B-C Elliott Wave pattern (in big picture wave 4) then TODAY could have seen the TOP of the correction. Wave B (year long) could be complete after an (a - triangle b - c) pattern where wave c = fibo 0.618 extension of wave a. Also within wave c it looks like five complete waves with the last mini wave v...
This is potentially one of the most important charts regarding direction of markets overall in 2020. If the large triangle ((wave b) of 2 or B) plays out then 2020 will see USD/JPY head a lot lower towards 95 area. Trade possibility is selling here at 109.60 with a stop 300 points higher (112.60) and target 1400 points lower (95.60). Roughly 3.5/1 reward/risk....
As I wrote during the day last Friday (13th Dec) after the shenanigans of the orchestrated US-China "trade deal, I think the DJIA may have TOPPED. This could easily be a buy the rumour sell the news scenario given the bloated hyperbole about "the deal" over the last 12 months from Trump. The only remaining prop for this egregiously valued stock market is the FED...
The 2007-2008 decline was impulsive. The recovery back to marginal new Highs took over 9 years and is corrective. I believe we may see more declines in the coming 6-9 months to test 21,500 level which is a confluence of A=C legs and is 78% of the rally from 2016 low.
Yes I know I am not going to win the popularity stakes among the equity permabulls for this post/view but here it is. I see 5 waves higher from March 2009 finished at Jan 2018 TOP (all time high). Since then 3 wave correction down in wave A (or W) and three wave rally back up in wave B (or X). It looks to me like we are missing a big leg lower - either as wave C...
As posted previously regarding SMH, here is another look at SEMICONDUCTORS via the SOX. Semiconductor stocks have PEAKED after a major bull run (from a minimum of 2009 and possibly a lot longer 20-30yrs...this could be the end of a SUPERCYCLE). There is a fairly picturesque Elliott Wave count in play which suggests we are heading for a MINIMUM pullback of 40% and...
Technically picturesque EW count....this is the END of a MAJOR CYCLE from at least 2009 if not the last 20+ years. A DECLINE of at LEAST 40% is on the cards over the coming 12-18 months. CAVEAT EMPTOR.....