Everywhere good news, inflation is dropping, the FED is about to pivot. Energy is dropping and every single technical indicator is telling us that we are in a "perfect bottom". Many argue that we are in a similar situation to 2015, at least the price action of the main indices. So let's discuss some arguments and figure this out. First and foremost, price...
Spaaaaaaaaaaace! Let's make a quick party, also bring a cake to celebrate! Make it quick, because it's late and I am tired and I should be sleeping by now. We have reached the top of the world. Well, equities have. It is time for them to lose value big time. Their successor is here, bonds. I have talked about it extensively in my last idea. This is an urgent...
I feel bad when I am filling up your feed with my non-stop posting. There are too many charts that I want to talk about. I could post them as "updates" to my earlier ideas. But this would be confusing for me and for the reader. Therefore, here is another short chart analysis. The last few months were peculiar. DJI began diverging away from the other main...
As the famous billionaire said in December 2021 (elon), the "prophet" who is apparently loved and trusted by everyone. I don't know why... Disclaimer, SPX by itself will probably not follow this path, things are quite complex as you will soon find out. First of all, Recession is not something simple. Everyone talks about it, but it is not always meaningful. This...
My recent posts were super bearish... well not this one. Imagine if you will, somehow, an impossible scenario. With nuclear war looming, food crisis and monetary tightening, something is triggered takes us to the moon, literally and metaphorically. One of them, which got quite popular (for a man my size), shows an imminent VIX explosion. Maybe the VIX explosion...
Not all is black and white. Innumerable financial fundamentals point towards economic weakness. The thing is, nobody has managed to pinpoint when this will happen. The only thing I can do today is get some perspective on the cycles of SPX, and perhaps pinpoint the beginning/end of some of them. Maybe we are in the beginning of a new super-cycle! First things...
The market has chosen a way to profit throughout all these years. This is the end of this way, QE lead us here... in this dead end. Equities was the "gold" of the time that passed. Now this is changing... If you read until the end of this idea, you will realize that a lot is changing. I will briefly analyze this chart and what it tells us. This is the ratio of...
Just a short update for today. It is important, so it deserves an idea on its own. For the first time since 2019, the FED is now officially giving money into the system. What could this mean for the US economy? Are they sensing weakness or is this just a response to the recent banking crises? Now let's look at the history of bailouts. Price made a...
Unemployment is tricky. You just cannot announce high unemployment. The political damage is too much to take. But unfortunately, the time comes when unemployment just increases... Every sane person would want the economy to remain calm for as long as possible. This is not sinister or bad. After all, it is in the duty of Governments and Central Banks to keep our...
Spoiler alert: More evidence against NDQ in this idea! US Companies are organized in clusters, some of them are DJI, SPX, RUT, NDQ etc. Some of them are more trustworthy than others. And by that I mean which of these sets one can depend on. DJI is indeed a dependable group of companies, the so called Blue Chips. Composed of the 30 largest US Companies. These...
You might not recognize this chart. To get some background on it, refer to the linked idea down below. You will find it in my profile. As it turns out,it looks like we are in a classic Wyckoff Distribution. It is remarkable that this is hidden beneath our noses. The timing and the accuracy of the future phases may not be completely correct, the path is...
I have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time. Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful...
The anxious moment when your investment goes through a period of slowdown or drop. When everything is good, everyone is happy. Nobody thinks twice when a market is growing. It's at that point of the first lower-low, when an investor loses their sleep. And it can be suffering when insomnia is prolonged. The 2022 Recession will be remembered as the most confusing...
SPX vs Inflation is a chart I explained in the following idea. While this chart showed incredible golden-ratio behavior, there are some periods which stand out. The smooth dance of the ratio throughout the last 100 years, has some quirks (the red ellipses). These periods are not random, they all feature a bubble behavior. It is clear as day that in 1996 the...
This is not the 2008 Recession. This is deception. This is the Recession nobody remembers. SPX by itself doesn't show the entire truth. The monster of QE clouds your vision, clouds your judgement. It's strength, it's pressure pushes everything upwards so much. Too much... Until you are in a delusion. The 2020 Black Swan was not black. He was in the shadows. One...
Ah the beauty of Fibonacci... when after a painful recession for equities, we reach the golden ratio alive and well. The satisfaction!!! Now we can go all-in equities! Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who bought the October bottom, then congrats to you! How much was your profit really? After all, this was a peculiar year... Yields massively increasing,...
In an unexpected turn of events, SPEU actually performs better than SPY in the years to come... RSI is now below it's SMA. Are we witnessing the top of the pair? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Oil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar). World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both... US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared...