Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind. This chart clears the picture. On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart. This chart tells us...
Relative Strength Index, is one of the most famous indicators. If analyzed correctly it can show us warnings very early on. Look at this period between 2010-2014 for USOIL Price is supported by a very wide ribbon, while RSI is under significant resistance. When we are talking about such wide timeframes, RSI action is VERY important. One could say that RSI...
...must come down. Conservation of Energy We all know QE... The god-given gift which made everyone rich! Well, not everyone... Consumers sure took a hit. But who cares about them? We want corporations rich! And they got rich . And boy some of them did go rich... That's the beauty of the American Dream! Sure we were cheating... ...but look at all this...
I have this question... Why are high yields bad? What is bad? We are in a period of big changes. There are lot's of balances changing, one of them is money. We have just passed (?) the biggest monetary experiment ever (QE) and we are about to enter the successor to that experiment, digital money. Digital money conveniently came about just at the time when...
BTC supply is rarely calculated/used in charts. Since we analyze equities/idices divided by M2SL, we should divide BTC with it's supply. Since 2021, BTC supply increases by ~0.003% per week. At least according to the BTC_ADDRESSES ticker. While this may not analyze the true amount of BTC in circulation, it is at least a start... This process allows us to add a...
Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose...
We live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides...
"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are...
The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold...
A very short idea. Make sure you got the scale right, one decimal away and you are ded. PS. The title is a reference to GTA:SA Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Trapped between these very important retracements. They act as price magnets, and significant support/resistance levels. These were drawn with the magnet tool, so there is no bias towards their positions. Do note that we are analyzing the DXY*DJI chart, which shows us a clearer picture of recent price action. A closeup. Are we in UTAD? And another...
The balance between SPX, NDX and DJI changes. Some are stronger than others. If we don't have food on our table and if there is no electricity or internet, who will go buy the new shiny faux bijou? Meta, Tesla and Google need internet to exist. If push comes to shove, they will be the first to drop. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Don't mind me, I am just messing around... I did an experiment a while ago, which I now repeat as a standalone idea. The method is simple, draw some "meaningful" trendlines on RSI which contain 3 touches with RSI. The 3 points on which RSI touches the trendline, draw a curve on the price chart. You now have a beautiful chart. Some experienced traders/coders out...
Spoiler alert, there is a lot. Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously. An easy-to-explain chart. As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when...
A while ago, I posted on why SPX was not in the clear. Today, I will cancel myself out, like a common contradictory human being you will find out in the wild. This chart above is the BTC rolled chart back in 2015. Back then, very few knew about it. So with this short idea, I will try to get into the mind of the trader in the past, our ancestor. First of all,...
The history of the new world, reduced to its fundamentals. A simple channel and a few important events, define a Wyckoff Distribution. This chart is the DNA of the new world. The end of phase four would be the much-advertised-great-reset. The end of the past 120 years, and a beginning of a new era, if it is for the best or for the worst. I am not very hopeful...
Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it? But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23? And another question... have equities peaked? For the past year, bonds have been...
It may not be that simple... Now that inflation is in the headlines, I decided to "follow the herd" and post an idea regarding it. To compare the current financial market with the market 100 years ago, one may analyze the pairs DJI/CURRCIR, or DJI/ GOLD . From the chart is trivial to realize that DJI/ GOLD historically moves inside the blue channel. Historically...