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US inflation data in July 2023 provided mixed signals. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving in the right direction, producer price inflation suggest pipeline pressures are picking up. Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.2% for a second month in a row . However, US producer prices picked up in July, owing to increases in...

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On 23 August, we saw another set of incredible results from Nvidia. The company’s data centre business grew revenues more than three times in six months, hitting $10.323 billion and a figure of more than 171% growth year-over-year. Guidance for the current quarter is now $16 billion, while consensus was in the range of $12.6 billion . We see Nvidia’s...

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History shapes our views and we are always seeking analogs comparable to current events. Even if we know that ‘past performance is not indicative of future performance’, we are still comforted when we draw parallels to the past. Many are now drawing parallels of the current tech enthusiasm to the dawn of the internet. The quintessential example of a ‘bubble’...

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On 24 July, the NASDAQ 100 Index conducted a special rebalance to reduce the concentration of the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ in the index. The seven stocks whose strong performance this year has driven the index are Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta. The index is typically reconstituted annually in December, with additional...

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Central banks packed quite a punch last week. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that raised policy rates by 25Bps, as was widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on July 28 unexpectedly decided to tweak the Yield Curve Control (YCC) band. The BOJ begins its withdrawal from YCC It will now allow some deviation above the long-term rate...

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The decline in the US inflation rate to more than a two-year low, marks a major step towards the end of the Fed’s historic monetary tightening cycle1. We believe key deflationary forces are in play – (1) weaker commodity prices (2) improvement in global supply chains (3) moderation in demand (4) lower inflation expectations. Therefore, the June decline in...

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The Nasdaq-100 has recorded its best H1 since the inception of the index in 1985, propelled by the year-to-date rally in the biggest tech stocks riding the artificial intelligence (AI) wave. For investors looking to benefit from the long-term growth offered by the AI megatrend, this period presents an opportunity to analyse how the AI-focused thematic strategies...

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Dividends are a fundamental source of returns for investors. Looking at an investment in the S&P 500 since 1930, 41% of the performance generated would have come from dividends1. This is almost half of the total returns. Having said that, there are many ways to invest in dividend-paying stocks: from focusing on companies with high past dividend yields, to...

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The energy transition - the process of moving away from greenhouse gas intense energy consumption towards more renewable energy sources - presents a significant positive demand shock for the metals needed to build out grid infrastructure, distribution and transmission cabling, vehicle charging infrastructure, battery components, solar panels, and wind turbines....

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The start of 2023 has marked the return of tech growth stocks alongside the surge of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs). The biggest tech companies in the world have benefitted from the buzz created by ChatGPT and rapidly rising enthusiasm around AI in general. Nvidia, a leading semiconductor company seen as one of the main AI...

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The failed rebellion by the Wagner group over the June 24th weekend brought to light not only the ineptitude of the Russian top military command but also the carefully crafted image of President Putin as the guarantor of stability. Putin’s assertion that the quick end of the 24-hour revolt had shown the unity of Russians behind him was contradicted by footage of...

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Cocoa continued its upward price trajectory, rising 3% over the prior month (22 May to 23 June 2023). The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has corrected its forecast for the supply deficit on the cocoa market in the current crop year up from 60,000 tonnes to 142,000 tonnes as production is expected to be lower and grinding higher than previously expected....

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Paradoxically, aluminium was one of the worst performing base metals over the past month (22 May to 23 June 2023) despite the bauxite ore ban potentially tightening the market. In 2022, Indonesia produced some 21 million tonnes of bauxite, according to data from the US Geological Survey, making it the world’s fifth-largest producer. Almost 85 percent was exported...

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There are a variety of risks to consider when investing in AT1 Contingent Convertible bonds (affectionately known as ‘CoCos’). These financial instruments, issued by financial institutions, may appear peculiar on first inspection but, once you get to know these quirky financial instruments better, you will better appreciate their unique risk/return profile. CoCos...

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To shed some light on the potential of artificial intelligence (AI), and discuss the role of the supporting infrastructure enabling this boom, we were delighted to leverage the expertise of Eric Rothman, Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Securities with CenterSquare. CenterSquare is a dedicated real estate investment manager, with around $14 billion under management,...

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Copper is one of the few elements that has been used by humans for over 10,000 years. Archaeological evidence suggests that copper was first discovered and utilised by ancient civilisations as early as 9000 BCE1. Its malleability, durability, and excellent conductivity made it highly prized for tools, weapons, and decorative objects. Copper's rich history as a...

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The inflation battle is far from over in the UK. In fact, the nature of inflation is taking a new form as the root cause moves away from external to more domestically driven shocks. While the headline rate remained unchanged at 8.7%yoy in May, core inflation accelerated to 7.1% in May from 6.8% in April, marking the highest rate since March of 19922. In response...

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Gold is arguably the most sensitive commodity to monetary policy. The metal operates more like a pseudo-currency than a regular commodity (a regular commodity’s price is driven by the balance of supply and demand, gold is driven by many of the macro determinants of currencies). After hiking rates every meeting since February 2022, the Federal Reserve (Fed) took a...