asdf098

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Hovering / bouncing off medium-term (2018) parallel channel support Hovering / bouncing off short-term (2020) price level support RSI-D looks like it is bouncing off from oversold levels RSI-W approaching oversold levels Risks V expensive relative to own history, does not bode well for Long-term Returns Expensive relative to market...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 in upward channel, near bottom Recently retested MT downtrend resistance-turned-support (2009, 2006) Cheap relative to market but low growth and low margin Risks RSI-W not quite at oversold levels, this means we could continue to hug the trendline down towards support of parallel channel negative FCF About average (possibly...

asdf098

Neutral for now, but long-term looks like UK is set to outperform Eurozone Better to wait for confirmation! Either way, UK (EWU) is looking somewhat promising as well.

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 3/5 Main risk is that we will retest previous support at a lower level Evidence breaking out of LT support (2007) RSI-D recently turned down from overbought levels Risk Could retest previous resistance at lower levels in the coming weeks/months RSI-M and RSI-W are not showing particular signs of overbought or oversold

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Better to wait until we break above downtrend resistance line, but overall looks strong seemed to bounce off 100WMA RSI-W at historical buy points bounced off (for now) 50% retracement RISKS Very expensive relative to historical trend

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 retesting MT (2016) support RSI-W at oversold levels with possible bullish divergence Growth is still good P/S levels pretty reasonable Risks support was broken in 2020 Short history, does not cover last recession negative FCF slightly below historical equilibrium zone

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 Thesis at former resistance-turned-support (2008 peak) near channel (2016) support very cheap (P/S of 0.67), although more expensive relative to own history RSI-W not overbought at all RSI-D showing possible bullish div Risks balance sheet is a bit weak (low quick ratio)

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Bouncing around channel since end of 2018 RSI-W at oversold levels, although another leg down for bullish divergence is not out of the question Still relative expensive... especially at a time when investors value value

asdf098

Conviction: 5/5 Retesting LT channel support (2000) Retesting previous downtrend resistance-turned-support. RSI-D showing really strong bullish divergence. RISK: what will fed raising rates do? unlikely to be good?

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Still bouncing around in (what seems to be) a bull-flag. How hovering at a strong support level (2014). At least a good trade until top of flag channel, although I think (pure personal opinion) that silver has potential to reach ~$50 level if elliott wave OR bull flag is correct. For this to be confirmed, should wait until prices break above...

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 Silver also seems to be finding a bottom / multiple touches on support. Bounced off MT (2016) support as well. RSI-D showing bullish divergence.

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 3/5 Should probably wait for better entry around bottom support (4/5) General Thesis Weekly RSI good entry level Daily RSI bounced off oversold, could still become bullish divergence with a lower low bounced off near-term (2017) support trend line since inception Growth Gross margins (45%) is pretty steady the last few years, at all...

asdf098

Conviction: 5/5 May have some short-term fall to retest previous resistance. Better buy after a brief pullback / pause. Recently bounced off LT (2003) channel support at year-end 2021. Also, at the same time seemed to be forming a bullish divergence with RSI-D and RSI-W. Main risk: chinese company de-listing

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 Main Risk: Riding top of channel since inception (2004) Quite expensive P/S of 8.5 relative to S&P500 of about 3 Thesis: Seems to be trading in range since surge in 1/2 half of 2020, now at the bottom of range in the last year. RSI-W at very attractive levels. Trading between 100WMA and 200WMA and have never gone below 200WMA after recession of...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 A confluence of supports (2013, 2014, support level from 2018) hopefully will create a support zone that allows the stork price to move up again. RSI-W at oversold (and historical bounce) level. P/S ratio is at historically low while margins and growth still seem pretty strong. Main risk... history does not capture 2008 recession.

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 3/5 likely (40%) to go down more to touch lower trend line support (2008) General Thesis potential bullish div on weekly RSI @ oversold levels could go down more to touch lower channel support (2008) hovering long-time resistance / support line from peak of 2007, which was broken by covid panic Growth Gross margins high (82%), but...

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 Value looks ripe for long-term out-performance against Growth stocks (Russell 1000 Value vs Russell 1000 Growth) Just put in double bottom, similar to what happened in 2000 peak. HOWEVER, this is bad for general markets, as most of the out-performance that happened last time in 2000 was due to Value GOING DOWN LESS than Growth... RISKS, the...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 Thesis Reached trend support (2016) RSI-D showing potential bullish divergence... Touched 0.786 retracement too, confluence could be powerful P/S is high on absolute scale (S&P 500 P/S is about 3), but nearing lows of Feb 2020 Risks Short history, does not contain last major recession in 2008 RSI-W super low (18) but in...