dalmazio

dalmazio Updated 

This quick idea is a comparison of the pararbolic $20k top formation of Dec. 2017, and what may be the top formation of the recent parabolic spike with a high currently at $9.1k. Both exhibit similar characteristics, namely, the double-zig-zag fractal in pink (up-down-up-down), followed by a spike to a final top in purple, followed by a double bottom formation in...

dalmazio Updated 

This chart idea updates the previous idea with new Elliott Wave counts to include the recent run from the $8.5k local high (which turned out to be the end of wave 3 instead of wave 5) to the $9.1k high. This would then put the $9.1k high as a truncated 5th wave. It is still possible that we could move higher to complete a 5th wave with a target in the high $9k’s,...

dalmazio Updated 

This idea is based on some historical analysis of previous top patterns in addition to some Elliott Wave analysis. One of the things to note is that every major high and subsequent deep correction that has occurred since the 2017 high has exhibited 1) a high, 2) a rapid drop or dragonfly candle that quickly gets bought up, and 3) a subsequent lower high. Only on...

dalmazio Updated 

In this idea we are focusing on the daily time frame and the broader price structure. First a quick note on the recent drammatic 1000+ point drop from the $7450+ highs. As other traders have mentioned, these markets are extremely dangerous to trade on margin, unless you’re coming in and out for a quick 1-2%. There is just too much risk of a short or long squeeze...

dalmazio Updated 

This idea comes from observing some fractal patterns on the 30m chart. In the first cycle of the pattern, short interest climbs to 33.9k, and a short squeeze causes shorts to drop by 5.8% to 31.9k. The pattern then repeats itself with short interest climbing to an "ATH" of 39.9k, and a short squeeze causes shorts to drop by 10.6% from 39.9k to 35.6k. It appears...

dalmazio Updated 

Just having a play with some patterns on the daily timeframe, and saw some interesting repeating ones. The higher highs leading up to the $20k top seem to loosely track a parabolic curve. That's pretty obvious in hindsight. But there are frequent corrections in the fib. 0.5 to 0.618 retrace intervals shown as red boxes within these blue box bull movements....

dalmazio Updated 

I’ve noticed a lot of BART moves in the charts lately. These are moves where whales pump the price, then consolidate/distribute, and after a short time dump. The result is a price chart that looks a little like the head silouhette of Bart Simpson, thus the name. If we are due for such a dump, it should still follow the general rules of EW theory and correct to...

dalmazio Updated 

This is one possible idea which assumes that the low is in for this correction, and that we are in the early stages of a much-anticipated bull move. If we break the low of $5755 recently established, this idea will be invalidated. Although this idea is tagged as “short”, it’s actually more nuanced than that. The basic idea presented here is that I expect price...

dalmazio Updated 

It has been quite a challenge making sense of the price movements in this market, with continuous short and long squeezes appearing from out of nowhere. In this view, we overlay Elliott Waves on the major price movements on the 4h chart. There are some clear wave counts, though the more common wave length ratios are somewhat shortened. In particular, the...

dalmazio Updated 

This market seems rife with short and long squeezes as evidenced by the many rapid red and green cliff-hanger price movements. However, the market does appear to genuinely want a correction after the recent bull move from $6k to $10k. The bear squeezes seem to be an attempt to shake out the highly leveraged shorts, who are (perhaps inadvertently) contributing to...

dalmazio

Some interesting patterns have formed in the daily chart for Ethereum. This chart shows how cycles and patterns repeat as fractals. With our Elliott Wave numbering, we have completed wave 1 of a higher order wave (1) again of a higher order wave I. You can also see the symmetry of the corrections, where each subsequent correction is a smaller version of the...

dalmazio Updated 

Here is another scenario where Bitcoin doesn’t correct until after the Bitcoin Gold fork. In this scenario, the buying pressure, possibly due to Bitcoin Gold , is too strong to result in a correction to at leat $5k support, resulting in the correction being postponed until after the Bitcoin Gold fork. If this happens, then we have several possibilities as far...

dalmazio Updated 

At present, the bull structure above $5k doesn’t have any support. In order for Bitcoin to move higher, it needs to establish support, making the previous $5k resistance zone a support zone. We haven’t done that yet. This is the way of markets, previous resistance becomes subsequent support. Therefore, Bitcoin will be making its way back down to $5k, attempting to...

dalmazio

As many traders realize by now, Bitcoin has been setting the broad trend for all cryptos, especially when it comes to corrections. As some traders have pointed out, large upward price movements in Bitcoin are not always as strongly correlated in the altcoins as large downward price movements. Given this, it helps to look at Bitcoin price activity in order to...

dalmazio Updated 

I'm including the same analysis here as for the sister post (Part 1: Bear). I've published them separately as overlaying bear and bull scenarios on the same chart can get kind of messy. It seems there is a region of both charts that overlap in such a way that both the bear and bull view can be supported in this region simultaneously. But as soon as we exit this...

dalmazio Updated 

I decided to create two parallel reality charts (also applies to Ethereum & company). One for the bear view, and one for the bull view. What I found was interesting. I'll publish them as two separate ideas, as overlaying bear and bull scenarios on the same chart can get kind of messy. It seems there is a region of both charts that overlap in such a way that both...

dalmazio Updated 

The move to $4k invalidated some key requirements of Elliott Wave Theory in regards to subwave numbering of the ABC corrective wave. Therefore, we need to re-analyze and re-number waves. There are two possibilities here. The first is that the ABC corrective wave has completed and that we are in the early stages of a bull trend. The second is that the ABC...

dalmazio Updated 

This analysis is very similar to my recent Bitcoin analysis (twin sister). It seems all cryptos are generally following Bitcoin’s price movements in this major correction. So you can apply the ideas here to pretty much any crypto. I’ll do this analysis separately for Ethereum so you can see just how similar they are. The move passed $267 invalidated some key...