fringe_chartist

fringe_chartist

It's easy to want to buy here. It appears that, regardless of reason (we don't want to speculate on individual reasoning here), buyers in the 30k+ area recently had the goal of either simply: a) buying more when the price breaks above above the 65k area, a signal of strength b) selling if the price is about to break below 30k into the 15-30k area, a signal of...

fringe_chartist

Let's look at the money-supply adjusted S&P. If you're not familiar with money-supply adjusted charts, just know that money supply expansion always fuels the rise in asset prices first. Historically this takes about 6-18 months to play out. Now ask yourself, how long has it been since the 2020 mega-easing policy response of the FED? It seems like those tailwinds...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Day trade idea: will momentum carry us over 4280 or lead to the same result? I can't imagine CPI news will be exciting. Maybe another reason to dump. But otoh, maybe we need more short covering? My gut tells me to lean more short so will probably do that. If commodities and DXY keep dipping, will lean towards long. Good luck and hedge your bets.

fringe_chartist

Yikes. Nothing else really to say here, just another domino falling even further. The chart is an average (1 year or 2 year avg, can't remember, sorry!) equally weighted index of some of the big companies with lots of domestic investments. A handful of these companies, and maybe some not in the chart, are failing to pay interest payments on debt. Good luck and...

fringe_chartist Updated 

When investors have a poor outlook for the economy, what do they do? They buy the longest term debt they can because it's one of the ways to price in the uncertainty of "right now" into the long term. Therefore, rational actors would do something like this: Buy 30 year treasuries. Buying ensues, yield goes down, price goes up. Eventually 20 year yield becomes...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Notice how everyone's wages were doing fine for TWO DECADES after Volcker was the FED chair? It's not coincidence. He was the most criticized FED chair in history because his policies WORKED for the working class. Fast forward to today, and we have turned the dollar into infinitely dividing pieces of confetti. These clowns at the FED are nothing more than puppets...

fringe_chartist

Today we have a very simple idea. When to invest in S&P 500 vs Oil. The white centerline is the center of the logarithmic price distribution. The red line at the top is +2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of Oil will put the price here. The green line is the opposite, -2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of the S&P will put the price...

fringe_chartist Updated 

People think oil just went to "record high prices". But this is a perspective that has been distorted by money supply growth. It's also targeted propaganda specifically to make you think and HOPE that it won't go any higher. If you account for money supply growth, you get a sideways chart. Not a coincidence. Good luck and hedge your bets

fringe_chartist Updated 

This is a swing trade idea, not a long term trade. Under the green line we have wholesale prices, and above we have retail prices. For the next few weeks, maybe a month, we should see a pullback in crypto as roughly 85% of buyers in the past year have losses. Perhaps before all the latest news behind the fed rate hikes and war broke out, most of these losses were...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Litecoin seems like a pretty good deal if you consider the rhythm of log returns. The fun will last shorter than usual unless we can break out of downtrending peak returns, and this would put us facing more losses. Notice how there is a higher proportion of red vs green in each third of the chart. I think we have yet to see peak losses. Good luck and hedge your bets.

fringe_chartist

In the chart is the M2 adjusted price of gasoline matched to the current price. It measures the portion of total dollars it would take to purchase a gallon of gasoline. Essentially it's a chart of dollar strength in gasoline terms. Chart up = strong gas, weak dollar. Chart down = weak gas, strong dollar. The white trendline in the center is the longterm linear...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Same pattern same result? I guess we're about to find out. Good luck and hedge your bets!

fringe_chartist

The market is an immobile crime lord that only knows one thing: cracking skulls like the Hutt mafia to get easy money with zero effort. Rules for thee, not for me. Oh yeah and the higher up syndicate already sold at the top months ago, by the way. When the fat man doesn't get what it wants, it gets angry! Note the quarterly log returns at the bottom, which has...

fringe_chartist Updated 

See what I did there? Heyo! Notice the proportion of candles spent trying to break the trend line early on in February. Now look at the past week, hardly any candles there and they got rejected by Thor's hammer like it was a bolt of lightning. Unless we suddenly break out today with a wild swing of momentum from US markets, which I think could go either way short...

fringe_chartist

Asset markets are still overbought on the yearly scale, but really, shorting right here seems like asking for a slap in the face. I won't fall for the new popular narrative of panic shorting and everyone suddenly unloading their bags only AFTER a massive drop. I am a contrarian by necessity, not for convenience. I'll short when the crowd is comfortable going long...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Ignore the scale of the chart. DXY goes down, 1/ BTC goes down. Which means BTC goes up along with assets until we reach DXY support. Now check the long term support for DXY: Good luck and hedge your bets!

fringe_chartist

Dogecoin had a great year in 2021. After exploding from 0.2 cents to 74 cents, a 370x(!) move, we can easily pull back >90% as occurred in previous cycles. Good luck and hedge your bets!

fringe_chartist

Purchasing power gains lost. PE ratio is 15. So where are the real gains? Should we be expected to wait 15 years to get our dissolving dollars back from dividends? Good luck and hedge your bets.