jordandotdev

jordandotdev

Now the fun part - when you realize how hard it is to predict the future! Now we are faced with countervailing forces: 1. The Fed's state goal of decreasing inflation to 2% 2. Large public banks going insolvent needing are back-stopped to avoid contagion This kind of "uncertainty" is normally bad for stocks, but longer-term followers of the market are also...

jordandotdev

During '22 and each of the last 3 times the $VX 5/10 week SMA has done a 'Golden Cross' (5 week passing above 10 week) we have seen 5-10% drawdowns in S&P500 E-Minis Will history repeat itself?

jordandotdev

Not much has changed in the stock market since I published my previous thoughts 6-8 weeks ago. Anecdotally, I read somewhere that changes to the Fed Funds rate lag ~6 months, so if we use the first 750 basis point bump from last year (In June), we should start to feel the medicine now. Obviously, job cuts have started in earnest in HIGH-MULTIPLE TECH (Not a...

jordandotdev Updated 

A .786 Fib-Retracement of the COVID Low to ATH takes us to roughly ~8900 on the $NQ, roughly another 20% from today's levels (~11000) and a total of an over 53% fall from an ATH (~16700) I'd call this "brutal" if there wasn't a precedent in the tech. bubble: - By the end of 2000, it looked very much like the NASDAQ bubble had deflated. The index was back to 2500...

jordandotdev

Achieved a .38 retrace of trailing 3-month high (8/16 high)

jordandotdev Updated 

Using "COVID LOW" and current downtrend to draw a "Descending Wedge" a firm break above this wedge may yield some fall-through this fall