mabonyi

mabonyi

There are remarkable similarities to the failed support and lack of strength after an attempt to accumulate. The future is a little bleak, but maybe we'll do something different this time.... I hope.

mabonyi

The classic forex-like behaviour of BTC this week seems to continue playing out. Sunday/Monday: stop hunt rise and drop Monday: false move week beginning, a drop lower Late Monday to early Wednesday: continuous rise with small level test above / at Sunday stop hunt Early Wednesday: midweek reversal, top of the pattern Mid Thursday: second leg of the...

mabonyi

Too much talk I see online about the 21 weekly. It really isn't as important as the 50-EMA on the 1W, because while it is rarely seen, it is the true mark of the beginning of part two of a cycle or the end of the macro trend. When price closes above the 1W 50-EMA, it is a very bullish signal. When it closes below or lingers on the 50 EMA, it will breakdown in the...

mabonyi

This analysis I think speaks for itself and it is just a warning to those who see it, to temper their enthusiasm and be careful. Like in 2019, we have a CME gap at the bottom of this bull run, around 23k to 26k. There is a credible chance that these strong parallels in circumstances and fractals as circled are more than just symmetry. This local top is shaping...

mabonyi

We are currently in the penultimate Spring phase of the smaller 3 months Wyckoff accumulation pattern and in the final phase's last Show of Resistance in the 2 year pattern. That would definitely make sense from a market psychology point of view too, as BTC grows in adoption and legitimacy, the applications of blockchain ignite re-evaluations, and holdings are...

mabonyi

The two sections highlighted are zoomed out quite a lot and you can see that they bear remarkable similarity to each other. This is the 4H chart of Binance over the last 2 months, compared to the same symbol on the 1D timeframe from late 2017 to today. The area in question is up to May before there was a small correction and continuation. We should expect from...

mabonyi

It is about as 50/50 as it gets, it seems. I would lean towards upside because of the power law midline I posted earlier and the 128 day EMA that crossed it (which I will note here, is usually followed first by a dump to spring upwards), which in every instance in the past 10 years meant a sustained bull run for at least 6 months to 1 year, but there are other...

mabonyi

Berger's article on the Power Law Model for Bitcoin is compelling: medium.com When you apply this to previous bull runs in Bitcoin, there are a number of times that the power law midline acts as a strong support for further rallies (both successful and unsuccessful). The one that bears the closest relation I found was the 2013-2014 rally. What is interesting is...

mabonyi

Waiting for it to go up, I guess bulls got so bored they started drawing with price action. I noticed a bull had appeared on my screen. I need a drink, clearly.

mabonyi

Not the most enticing prospect now. What's with these IEOs? They last a week at best.

mabonyi

I saw some news posts saying this is the parabola broken but surely not. The break point moves up ~$100 / day right now and, today, is at $7625. We're nowhere near that.