The last time I updated Nvidia I stated that below 459 there is a higher chance we decline closer to $400. Read my last update here. Price did decline to breach $459 and we have subsequently moved to the upper trading ranges but have yet to make a new high. Below the previous all-time high of approximately $506 I still favor a move down closer to the $400 area.
We have our first indication of a top in bond yields with price overlapping and losing it's impulsivity to the upside. However, a top is not confirmed until yields breach 3.40% which is our wave 4 of one lesser degree. To do so should confirm the beginning of our wave 2 decline into the target box, and over time.
I remind in my updates periodically, that nothing clears up confusing-overlapping price action, like more price action. Meaning sometimes, as an analyst, it can be difficult to forecast precisely what is playing out, until right before a pattern concludes. This current pattern off the October 2023 lows is one of those occurrences. Corrective waves can take on...
This evening I was watching TV and I get an email alert. The title of email, “Wall Street’s 2024 SP500 forecasts are out, are you positioned?”, … and to my surprise (not really) the future looks bright for the US stock markets next year. I immediately thought to myself…What did I click on to get this garbage? LOL Truthfully, I didn’t think that…I eagerly went to...
We're getting alternation between an almost indistinguishable wave 2 and this current wave 4. However, if we breach 459, then we have declined lower than .50% of wave 2 and 3, and although we have NO overlap, the chances are high we are no longer dealing with a wave 4. Therefore I will keep this simple, above 459 and we go higher to complete this larger...
Currently I have NVDA starting a c-wave of iv down to 467 minimum. If at anytime price breaches the $449 area, chances become very high, NVDA may have topped. Under that scenario, I expect price to find support in the $400 region and to hold that area and rally, could mean that is our minor a-wave bottom. Suffice to say, if you own NVDA, raising some cash at...
In the micro count, it appears we're in our wave iv with another low to come to complete. From there I am expecting one more high to complete this two-decade pattern.
Starting with the big picture containing all the price action within Trading View charts. Based on fib extension levels my long-term green labeled count is my primary. Purple is an alternative, but again, based on fib extensions levels it seems unlikely that purple is the optimal long-term count. Nonetheless, in either scenario, we should be entering a...
Has Elliott Wave Lost Its Forecasting Accuracy? I cannot recall the exact setting, but many years ago I was asked this specific question… ” …as the number of practitioners of Elliott Wave Theory grows due to its popularity, won’t more people be trading these wave patterns and in doing so, somehow skew the theory’s efficacy”? It’s a great question. One...
As we continue to subdivide within this larger cycle wave a down targeting the low 3,000 area, we appear to find ourselves in a countertrend b-wave retracement. This area has the potential to carve out potential complex patterns as b-waves and wave 4's are the areas where traders are frustrated from a sentiment standpoint. I do not think we should be prepared...
We've all heard that the small capitalized publicly traded companies lead the larger cap companies, more so featured in the broader indices. A quick look back shows the Small Caps Topped in November 2021, whereas the Nasdaq and SP500 did not top till January 2022. Subsequently, the IWM bottomed in June of 2022, and it took the NDX and SPX till October of 2022 to...
I just returned from a week's long vacation in the beautiful appalachian mountains and updated my members on the current posture of the SPX cash market, the ES and NQ futures. However, I did not forget my trading view followers who I have not updated in some time. I do believe this current pattern down extends and if there was a time within the current pattern...
Is the Stock Market Dead Money For The Next 10-20 Years? So much of how our markets work is based on optimism. Can you imagine being a money manager and your entire sales pitch is some negative diatribe about how the market is going down and will continue to go down? Would you fork over your hard-earned savings based on such a story? Not a successful plan...
Earlier today I was on a conference call with traders examining the index price patterns and discussing the initial price action of The SP500 (INDEXSP: .INX) and the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) off their July highs. Currently my company is forecasting we revisit, and ultimately breach the October 2022 lows sometime in the first half of 2024. However, what the...
In my latest installment of the repeating Sentiment chart, we get a front row seat on how trader sentiment ebbs and flows with price action. Once we hit the target of 4172-4180, that will be a function of the bearish thesis getting aggressive. A complete unwinding of the utter junk spewed on CNBC a month ago. New highs possible? Soft landing? The magnificent...
Today we hit my long standing targets and so far have bounced. I have carried an orange bullish count and a bearish blue count on this chart for a while now. If we can develop an impulsive 5-wave structure up that breaches 4508. I'll remove the bearish blue count targeting 4030-4060. Should we rally in a corrective 3-wave manner and fail to take out key...
Post 2009 Financial Crisis, they made movies about the housing and economic downturn. Here’s the thing, there are over 10M financial advisors, money managers, hedge fund managers, and fundamental and technical analysts in the industry. This doesn’t include the geniuses in the Financial News business. However, why did only a hand full of that total population...
I’ve written about price heading to the mid 4200’s to low 4300’s for a while now. By my count, I’ve written a total of 4 times just in the month of September. Links below: Sept 15 Sept 14 Sept 8 Sept 2 The target moved up slightly following the Sept contract change to Dec from 4256 to 4307.50. As the analysis changed, I adjusted my targets. But I...