oliverrathbun

oliverrathbun

Charted is a proposed price pathway for the 10yr T Bonds. I'm looking for an easing in yield soon... in the 4.125 area (.786 Fib level) specifically, sometime in early March. This will represent the top of the b wave of wave 4 off the Aug. 2020 low. This expectation flies in the face of recently released inflation related news. As such my parameters are well...

oliverrathbun Updated 

I Calls Em As I Sees Em. This is not a popular idea...Ask me how I know. Ha Ha This is a MONTHLY chart. Take that into consideration. I've been tracking/anticipating this trade for months. I believe I am at the point of taking this trade. Risk is well defined. As the chart illustrates I think we are now entering the acceleration down phase of the large C wave...

oliverrathbun

I'm publishing this as an alternative EW count. I've been suspicious of many of the attempts to label the waves off the 2022 top. This hypothesis will be labeled as a "WXY" to label a double zig zag pattern On the ES...my assertion is the true top was in Nov 2021. The ultimate top was part of a three wave move that I'm counting as part of a series of three wave...

oliverrathbun Updated 

What do we do with Tesla.... Breathtaking run up has shorts scrambling for cover. I'm initiating a Sell ... I think this is an important inflection point. Analyzing price structure on a weekly log (to get adequate perspective) I believe this recent run up represents a wave 4 of a large "A" wave in the long term view. EW alternation of wave 2-4 exist here. Wave...

oliverrathbun

Where do we go from here? Ask a hundred people...get a hundred different opinions. Here's mine for whatever it's worth. The decline off the January '22 top left the door open for many corrective scenarios. You have the 2000/2008 "crashers" and you have the "correction is over" and we're on a Nirvanic journey into the stratosphere. There's little doubt in my...

oliverrathbun Updated 

NG has sustained an ugly sell off. Not unusual in this market. This is an opportunity for short and longer term gains I believe. One needs to be prudent in selecting entry points in this market to manage risk. I believe we are now at that point. I will be looking to get long next week. If you prefer an etf to use UNG chart below. Ideally if A = C entry would be...

oliverrathbun Updated 

Seems the conventional wisdom has assumed BTC has bottomed. The prevailing thought is gauging...how high is it going? I have a suspicion there is one more surprise ahead of us. This is strictly and solely based on my TA.... Nothing fundamental about it.... What has bothered me about the November '22 low is the structure did not resemble a climactic bottoming...

oliverrathbun

This market has been in a 4 1/2 month decline. Traditionally this market moves inversely to the SPX. Although...not so much recently. Technically this looks like it's set up for a good risk reward trade. This scenario fits into my expected correction in the ES in the near term. See my posted SPX idea linked below..

oliverrathbun

Short - Intermediate Term Buy on US Oil I believe there is a corrective move off the intersecting median lines to upper channel ahead. Median line has been tapped twice. Use that as a stop for your longs...

oliverrathbun

This stock was brought to my attention by one of my followers requesting my opinion. WEEKLY Linear chart... This looks juicy ..... I believe this is poised for a substantial drop. Capable of producing a return over 50%. Longer term put option or a LEAP may be in order here. I believe we have just completed the "B" wave on a long term Elliot Wave sequence. The...

oliverrathbun

Long term DXY chart for perspective on what is possibly in the works. I believe this is an accurately drawn channel based on fib conformation. Are we about to embark on a trip to new Dollar highs? As you can see we've recently bounced off the .62 channel retracement which nicely coincides with the channel median line. At the very least I think we are now...

oliverrathbun Updated 

Costco..... As a retailor it's hard to argue. They have a good thing going! If we can use this as an indicator..... the health of the consumer economy going forward looks grim. The longer term pattern displayed on the chart is clearly a topping pattern. How it plays out is of course, what we're interested in . This is how I see it.

oliverrathbun

A strong rejection at the starred median line forming a doji star on the weekly chart gives us a defined risk point for a short trade with the objective of a move to the lower channel line at roughly 89.00.

oliverrathbun Updated 

This is an update to my August 8th sell publication. A sell recommendation...Appears to be a common theme among retailers... As you can see there was a breakdown through the white median line on October 28th. I believe we are now in the middle of the "C" wave with a downward acceleration about to commence. My price target is in the mid 50's area... TBD....

oliverrathbun Updated 

Here is my current expectation on direction for the S&P. The short term path will involve more deceptive corrective moves. The take away idea I intend to convey is that I'm expecting the down sloping trendline to be taken out leading to a sustained move up. This will provide a good opportunity on the long side. Be prepared to get long for a few months.

oliverrathbun Updated 

Chevron MONTHLY Linear Scale This 30 year price line has been breached 4 times since it's origin in 1992. Each time there has been a subsequent sharp reversal greater than 40%. Earlier this summer there was a breach that resulted in a sharp and dramatic sell off. Thatwas a fantastic no brainer trade. As you can see we are approaching this level again. Short...

oliverrathbun Updated 

Weekly Uranium etf Just completing 9 month correction. Projected move and point of risk illustrated on chart.

oliverrathbun Updated 

Copper Linear Mode Hourly/Monthly With the recent breakdown in gold it seems unlikely to expect appreciation in copper although this chart suggests otherwise. Is copper about to become the new gold ? The Monthly chart shows copper has completed a wave 4 pattern at the lower channel as shown. On the hourly chart prices are currently printing a bullish pattern...