optionfarmers

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Dow and Rusell2k have rallied back and may be finding seller supply at current levels. If prices go lower and fail to hold recent support, then an extension of the down move could be in play. The majority of the gains stocks have been from the ai and magnificent 7 stocks (nvidia, amazon, tesla, microsoft, apple, google, meta). These stacks are a larger...

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Canadian Solar bounce potential trade. Its oversold and potentially pricing alot of the potential risk, making it attractive for a trade. Fundamentally is attractive. Tangible book value is 38 ish while stock is under 15. They took one debt to build manufacturing facility, so debt is productive. 3.6b debt vs 1.94 cash. PE is under 5, but when we factor in debt...

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Copper has been in an uptrend since february 2024. Price is currently outside Bollinger bands (50 period). Some of the reasons copper has been rising is near term demand and shortages, some articles pointing out to data center demand for copper for the AI boom. With Nvidia, intc, amd and other tech stocks showing weakness in last week, my opinion is that it...

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Stocks to gold ratio had dropped weeks before the spx in dollars had turned. Was the gold buying a signal that safe haven collateral was in demand? In a panic, both stocks and gold can be sold as investors need more and more liquidity in falling markets. So gold is not necessarily an inverse asset to stock, keep this in mind. In most major sell offs, gold...

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Its taken a long time, but silver has finally shown life toward the upside. Bullish moves in silver have taken 8-10 years in the past to fully play out. If 2020 marks the beginning of the bullish move, then this move could last until 2030. Bullish head and shoulders pattern could target silver to the mid 30s level. If silver shows continued strength, then...

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Correlation for risk on assets will mean that if bitcoin keeps selling, its likely that the rest of tech could see profit taking. Fed rate Wednesday is expected to be no change in rates, but commentary could be a catalyst. Most indices are at or near breaking the 20 period moving average. Bitcoin is now below the 20 daily moving average, an indication of...

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Nvidia currently trading at 36 times sales and pricing in all the forward growth in earnings analysts can see. Many cheap stocks trade at 1-2 x sales, normal price to sales for growth stocks might be 5-10x sales. But 36 x times has a huge built in growth premium which makes holding these growth names risky. Its just like a premium on precious metals at the coin...

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double top pattern in play after IWM and RUT failed to breakout higher with the rest of the large cap indices. patterns alone can be deceiving, but fundamental risks support this double top thesis. banks risks, higher costs from supply chain constrains and or inflationary costs in play. Higher rates may be finally hitting consumers and businesses as an extra...

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See my work of math art. I plot estimates of value over time. If you can visualize, it helps with understanding. Investors first must understand 3 things: does it make money now? will it make more money later? how is the company funded? Avoid money losers. Avoid companies that cant scale or grow. Avoid balance sheets that are weak or rotted with debt.

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The growth premium on Tesla ran the stock up ahead of the fair value. The enthusiasm from 2021 was too much for the business value. However, the turbulence and slowing sales seen now will bring opportunity. 400-500 as a 5 year price is fair given the growth rate on earnings per share. So the lower the price falls, the better for investors looking to buy at a...

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Gold is slow to move over time and hits its targets. The current move has been trying to break out for 3 ish years now. An extension of the current range of 1600-2050 points to a chance of 2500 as a target. And after than, if gold keeps rising, the decade range extension points at a shot at 3000. These numbers are hypothetical targets. When making new highs,...

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spx/gold is a way to measure the value of stocks compared to real commodity metal instead of printable dollars. Gold is a "safe haven" for many reasons including that once its in your hand you own it and no one is your counterparty. Dollars depend on the federal reserve and the supply of dollars circulating. When you hold gold, you hold a real commodity that has...

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3.44$ stock seems to be a deep value play. Tangible book is near at 1.85. Already earning .41 for 2023 and expected to earn .49 in 2024, IQ has a forward earnings yield of over 14%. In addition to low Price to earnings, the growth potential expected is over 20% to as 38%. Plotting out the growth to 2029 and using optimistic growth stock multiples, a stock like...

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after todays fed commentary, and this weeks earnings disappointments of the likes of Google, Apple and Microsoft, is it time vix to come back? NYCB made headlines as well by cutting the dividend and shoring up capital for potential losses. Vix this low is just eerie and concerning. Trade Idea would be bear spreads in indices, easier than trading vix directly.

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Deep value means cheap and cheap can lead to opportunity. De risked or beat up is why we consider cheap stocks that are already depressed, the financial storm has already hit the stock price. Sometimes stocks get so beat up its unreasonable and doesn't make sense. Jaresh Holdings (JRSH) might fit in this category. Its trading below tangible book value and...

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Google earnings revealed some disappointment in search ad revenue, causing some selling in shares. The market is looking for an excuse to sell and take profits, this could be it. Apple, Google, and Microsoft have performed poorly this week and are the largest stocks in the large cap indices. These are the leaders. The Generals. Could they be signaling slower...

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While we still dont know the future of China and all its risks, these bargain stocks keep tempting us investors who follow valuations. IQ (iqiyi) is a online video streamer subscription model and also offers a live streaming platform in china. Used to be a part of Baidu, but is no publicly traded on its own. "iQIYI is currently one of the largest online video...

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Stock prices alone dont tell the entire story. stock prices just represent the equity portion of ownership. Debt holders are also a form of owners who can collect at liquidation before shareholders in the worst case scenario. The opposite of debt liabilities is excess cash on the balance sheet. While debt would make a balance sheet look worse, cash does the...