Current apple price may already factor in all the growth for 9 years, if analyst expectation play out. Investors might be better off hoping for a sell off to get a discount from current price.
Active accounts declining and merchant loan risk increasing. 5 and 10 year outlook according to analysts is still rosy for the business, despite the chart looking bad.
snapchat drops in after hours despite beating numbers. Investor call mentions they are focused on getting free cashflow positive even if it means slower growth.
Palantir stock has been volatile and yet the business cashflows havent moved very much this year. The multiple on future values is what makes stocks volatile. The discount rate or hurdle rate is what investors use to price investments appropriately. If a s tock trades too high compared to its realistic future business values, investors may seek other opportunities.
Dollar index show rise in currencies like swiss franc. Every bull run in gold and silver has been linked with a rise in swiss franc since they used to have large gold holding. If dollar persists lower and sticky inflation and sticky rates, does that mean that the market is pricing in more debt and money printing? Is the break out in swiss franc marking a green...
SPX/SPY future price can be calculated by take earnings and compounding out in time using analyst growth projections. You can do this for any stock. Spx in 5 years maybe 1.6x times higher which is approximately a 5-6% annual return. Historically speaking, sp500 yields 7% to 10% so current prices are promising wimpy returns according to analysts. And if the...
made a trading game to play for fun. uses a coin and beans/rice/money. its really a learning tool on choosing a trading system or business model. Let me know what you think.
Natural Gas and other commodities offer alternatives to main show which is the stock market indices. The spx sp500 is currently offering very low volatility premiums because its been trending higher in smooth way, and put sellers have crushed premium there. UNG etf offers an alternative potential opportunity for me since premium is high enough and its already...
Rivian is still a young company trying to prove its model can make a profit. They have a pile of cash and along way until they can break even in their business model. Tangible book is all tangible assets minus liabilities. Tangible meaning physical and cash like assets but not including intangible like brands and patents. Tangible assets may also be a better...
in 2008, high yield b rated bonds went as high 22% in the peak of panic. This also coincided with the peak of panic for stocks. Quality high growth potential stocks sold for fantastic prices and valuations. And it makes sense to not make sense this way. Bonds are debt, and must get paid first as part of normal business operation. Equity gets the excess profits...
New bull market, or sideways chop as reality hangover incoming. bullish reasons- ai potential end of war asset inflation bearish reasons- rates hurt inflation still here war continues which way is most likely from what you can see? I added crypto and spx stocks, but any mix would have worked as a substitute.
Vix, MMTH, and Junk bond yields trade along stocks to add color to this movie. SP500 stocks are businesses with earnings yields that grow over time, but stock dont trade alone in a vacuum. Investors can choose to get in, get out, sell puts, buy bonds, or stain short term money market assets. if we look back at history, we can also compare what different risk...
Fill in the last comment bubble.... Have you gone a similar ride before? :D
Lordstown Motors (RIDE) will be an interest stock to watch because of its balance sheet. They are having production issues with their Foxconn partnership which is forcing them to file for bankruptcy. "Lordstown's move to seek Chapter 11 protection from creditors comes after a dispute with Foxconn over a deal to produce trucks at an assembly plant in Ohio....
Hot days mean more Air conditioning, which is good for natural gas since its 40% of electricity generation. The Nat gas chart has been in a down trend since losing support in fall of 2022. Will the chart turn directions? Currently its trying to begin higher highs.
More debt leads to more devaluation. Its math. Thats why prices rise. Thats the magic trick we never learned in school. The game is designed this way. The machine harvests energy and keeps running. Debt is created by gov and spent into economy. Banks generate loans. Asset prices rise. Taxes are generated. Those who dont play the game find their purchasing power...
Warren Buffett credits ESOP for the first philosopher to ponder the finance math question in 600 BC. Buffett even argues that ESOP should have kept going and described it further. Both these old legends speak in code and dont really explain clearly in my opinion. Its taken me years to figure it out plainly, and this could be my own issue :D But after reviewing...
Not enough juice in the puts for the effort. Premium on the at the money puts are only 8-10% premium to stock value for 1 year where as owning the stock is essentially a better forever yield. selling the low yield puts vs owning a good earner and potential grower. may be silly in a decade.