bull trades when over sold, bear trades when overbought, and tidy up the house when in the middles. when you know you dont have edge, trade small and clean up. wait for you setup scenario. dont be in a rush to lose money the market will always take your money, dont rush it. wait for you sweet spot for better reward to risk. audio book link if you want:...
DIA has been stuck in channel and will eventually pick a side. rates rising, jpowell speaking, will treasuries pull assets form dollar sensitive dow?
does it get cleaner than this? thank you silver gate trend is higher highs and higher lows. all a technical pattern does is observe change.
as rates keep rising, that risk free rate from the treasury is making international income investors salivate. 5% plus is very competitive against he sp500 earnings yield and very close the to expected return on stocks of 7-10%. and remember a fixed income return is far safer than the expected potential volatility of stocks. mechanical traders like the Turtle...
near 1x sales on anything gets me interested. the money bleeading is slowing down. share count still rising a little. close to break even. has a positive tangible book. 3.8 billion in cash and equivalents. ill start to nibble and watch. small size small risk. tiny position. will see how market plays out month by month. looking for 20% growers to buy...
inside moves vs outside moves. just wait for the break out either way. its in the box, the box of indecision. churn churn churn. the bulls place their votes. the bears place their votes. the crowd will decide whats it worth when they are ready to overwhelm one side. its not up to you or me. thinking wont help. price discovery will prevail.
JayPow spookes market today at congress hearing, speaking on more potential rate cuts and mentioning that higher rates havent even hit full effect yet. testing channel and support. we shall see.
TJ max isnt expensive, 26 PE and 15 ish price to book. gross profit margin 27%. Net income margin 7% With walmart and home depot warning about weakening consumer and saying guidance is flat for 2024, will the trend squeeze on TJX margins and sales revenue? They already missed earnings most recently. The salsa bowl of doom says TJX may be showing profit taking...
"Consumer retail is 70% of the economy". If anyone know where we are heading next, it should be the major big box and big web consumer retails names in the "WATCH" INDEX. WATCH is just Walmart Amazon Target Costco and Home depot added together.
Nat gas isnt a stock, its also a weird commodity. Its almost always oversold and cheap, and then all of a sudden its wrecking shorts. Remember James Cordier? the option seller who blew up his clients selling calls on nat gas? geez. tough. Any who, there momentum divergences in nat gas, showing the selling is slowing. theres lot of volume showing interest. I...
Schwab put out a great letter yesterday showing various ways to value the market. While the market valuation has improved slightly, on most measures, the investors are getting very little bang for the buck. I enjoyed the article very much and will give the link here if youre interested www.schwab.com In summary, market aint cheap. Scanning over the big...
GE2! is euro dollar (dollars outsside usa) and is commonly known as libor. its important because thats the common rate for non bank entities who enter into contractual lending. they are not supported by the federal reserve directly. Libor is unsecured funding. zq2! is fed funds which the banks lend to each other and the fed sets this rate. also unsecured...
3 days holidays weekend have a tendency to be reversal points, trader known tendency. sure seems like it for this 3 day presidents weekend. Junk bonds week, energy range bound in channels sideways, treasury yields rising, and retail news from home depot and walmart comes in weak. Oh and vix is threatening to go higher. Stocks arent cheap yet. 20 toe 30 Price...
If and when stocks finish the bear market, there will be deals at fair prices. snap is a good example of a once over valued and over exuberant stock whos earning guidance and result kept coming down after peak 2021. If arkk and the rest of the growth stocks keep trending lower as we may or may not be already in recession, I'm checking my favorites list to see what...
Stocks are businesses. most of them anyways. some are expensive hobbies until the money runs out. Its a good exercise to value opportunities as you see them. useful to weigh it and make notes in your files. Maybe not now, but later, your pitch with be thrown, and you might be ready to swing at it.
Sometimes you see things you cant unsee. Im seeing price action rhyme across various charts. Sure, trading off of pictures and crayons isnt science. But I've also been tracking the valuations and current sentiment readings. I mean, doesnt everybody like sales and discounts anyway. Buffett Indicator says GDP isnt keeping up with current stock market size....
Bad business model, losing money. But had more assets that was being reflected in the stock. this was not quite a cigar butt net net benjamin graham type stock, but it was low priced compared to liquid assets.
Valuation change my life. I was blind and now I see. not kidding. I love technical analysis. I love it more when combined with valuation. Stocks are actual businesses. Charts only track transactions. its like receipts in the trash outside the store :D Warren Buffett used to collect bottle caps as a kid. Then would sort them to find out what drinks were most...