peterdcharlebois

peterdcharlebois

Each trend line if broken, opens the door to accelerated downside into the gap.

peterdcharlebois

This is my entry with stop and target. If I hit the target I may just keep part of the trade on as I expect the JPY is due for more strengthening. I do love using 8 hour candles for swing trading. Just enough time frame to keep me engaged without having to stay glued to the screen. And I love the way 8 hour candles quite closely represent the 3 trading times...

peterdcharlebois

If we only looked at fundamentals, we might think the traders are crazy for not selling out of the market completely. But the fact of the matter is that there are still enough traders with a risk appetite to keep buying the dips in hopes of a renewed rally. So the direction of the markets is still unclear. I've laid out an Elliott Wave triangle pattern grid that...

peterdcharlebois Updated 

This is the place to watch for a possible renewal of the downward trend. One of the most common retracement levels in trading and/or anything in nature for that matter is .618. Thursday is a typical turn day so let's see what tomorrow brings. I'll take a new short if the move downward accelerates from here.

peterdcharlebois

I'm only about 60% certain that this is indeed an ending diagonal. But it really seems like it's the only count that fits. The part that is not a normal shape is the wave 4 that preceded it. It's really quite shallow. (I didn't mark in on the chart). But what I can't argue with is the tremendously volatile drop from the top which is very typical of a diagonal...

peterdcharlebois

I'm not completely comfortable with the shape of the first few legs down but I have taken a short. Finally. I'm counting on this being a double top

peterdcharlebois

Well, this is a fine mess. I use multiple disciplines to make my trades. Of all the ones I use, believing my eyes is the most important. That is to say that strong price action in a given direction is the most important trading cue. I do love to try and overlay the most obvious Elliott wave pattern on my charts. About the only one I can make fit here is the one...

peterdcharlebois

We are way past a normal retracement zone. BUT B waves in a strong market can do that. Even surpass the upper high. But not usually by much. And this could also be a new wave 5 up. Suffice to say, still waiting for a confirming down-trend to short.

peterdcharlebois

We are in the retracement zone. If this is going to fall anew now is the time. With that said I would expect once again any new highs to be met with selling pressure once again. Patients everyone. Patients.

peterdcharlebois

As I've been saying all along, the turn lower is not yet fully in play. As we have bounce and the upward move looks strong at this stage, we may yet revisit the highs. I am however expecting a renewed drop once again in the coming weeks/month. Critical support now at 4583. I'm careful about buying at this point as to me this would be like trying to pick up dimes...

peterdcharlebois

Not a clear direction with a stall at the bottom trendline. And the shape of the retrace could fool me into thinking the move down is ready to resume. At this point I really want to see a strong retrace then a break below 4580 as this could still be a developing ending diagonal

peterdcharlebois

Well the price action made a thrust lower out of Alt 4 as expected. Now we are caught between two possibilities. The shape of the move is more impulsive looking than that of a wave 4, which I would count as an ABC at this point. (I did not mark this on the chart). I can't quite reconcile the previous move up to the recent top as being complete. So I was open to...

peterdcharlebois

The corrective move is sideways and weak in it's conviction of direction. It should give way to a new low. The next move after that will likely give us better clues as to whether or not the bears have finally taken control.

peterdcharlebois

I'm keeping a watch on the 8 hour chart for a change in direction. We are entering overbought territory but I have yet to see clear evidence of a turn downward. It's hard to understand how OIL is decoupled from the broader equity markets that have been turning bearish. So... I wait for a downward engulfing candle or lower low and lower high. We have broken back...

peterdcharlebois Updated 

For the last week or so I have been saying a move to 4700 was a good downside target. At this point I think we may see a bit more sell off before a bounce. We are in no-man's land on the EW count. So I have posted the ALT. (alternative) count for a bigger bearish move.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Todays New York session didn't provide any clarity on where the price action is headed. I still think any new highs will be sold off. Right now it's a wait and see.

peterdcharlebois

Well I'm keeping the same view and count on the index as it's still the one that fits the best. With that in mind the sell-off needs to retrace to around 4700 and start back up again to further bolster this count.

peterdcharlebois

This interpretation still has merit. How the next two weeks play out till certainly be interesting.