supere

supere Updated 

Undead Bear Captain's Log April 27, 2025 Will make one final attempt to chart and navigate the murky waters of the Great Bear. XLF may be a good candidate with still distinct waves, like XRT, XLRE and XHB. All other sectors, especially SPY are skewed by tech, same-day options and basically unchartable. I call this map the rhythm of the great bear. It is for my...

supere Updated 

Undead Bear Captain's Log, Apr 7 2025: Writing some observations due to a lurking feeling of something ominous about to happen: Bizarre signs in the wind since mid-March, such as VVIX/VIX Sudden downslide last week, almost unprecedented Minimal put action - bear breathen all obliterated Overlay of infant XBI and adolescent SPY suggests 3 year rally was...

supere Updated 

This chart shows that bears have literally been obliterated off the face of this market over the past 5 years. I'm talking about bears who actually take action, not the ones just sitting on the sidelines, blabbing. Even the 2022 bear leg barely pushed up the p/c ratio. Compare to market behaviour prior to 2020, even the entire average line was much higher. (Real...

supere

After 7 years of rising political tension, grassroots chaos, turmoil, war, viral zombie apocalypse, massive East-West cultural shift, digital gambling combatted with unprecedented money printing, political finger pointing and social bipolorization, and an almost unshakable popular belief in optimism and the rise of AI and technology to "fix" the fundamental...

supere

This disconnected market stretched its life for yet another month since the crash ratio indicator went nuclear in August and now heading down again. This time I show the longer time scale including the GFC. Seems like quite an important historic indicator. When this baby goes bottom up RED it's time to pay attention! Can it predict the future? We shall...

supere

Posting this one as well for the annals of history. I probably haven't updated this chart for two years. The insane red cliff drop finally arrived. How to prepare? Not really sure anymore. This market and economy has utterly frustrated, exhausted and depleted me. I quit and moved on to more meaningful things in life. Whatever the future brings, just bring it on.

supere

It's been over a year since I stopped all trading and updating charts. Just wanted to log in the annals of history that the VIX spike finally arrived and still within the red rectangle I had drawn long before I had quit. Phoenix is still kicking. Is there any value knowing this? Probably not. Nothing can be gained by bears through such months/years of grind and...

supere

How many bears remain in this market? I gave up last fall after trying to time this since 2020. Moved the little I have left (after bear roasting for years & years) into bonds & GICs. No matter what, I am just paralyzed from being able to press the buy button. Why do markets still look so incongruent? Why do so many sectors including this wilshire still look...

supere

Everything TECH, AI, and somewhere in between rocketing to new highs for whatever reason. Two major wars related to fundamental human existence (East-West philosophy and fundamental religion) without end in sight. Housing, homelessness, food poverty in supposed "developed societies" reaching unprecedented levels. Economic reports show nothing wrong at all. I...

supere

The traditional indicator of a bear market, transports, has officially broken through major support. (What wedge is there left?) When everything collides at once, high *everything* prices, high interest rates, high credit card debt, high social anxiety, and majority of bears are deathly silent, on a foundation of bull !@#$ and 0dte options (mostly bullish), what...

supere

I was 8 months premature, but will take another crack at riding this bear. Market has shown exceptional resilience despite fundamentals deteriorating (for years) and even multiple financial crises that otherwise would've taken it down. This resilience is led by a mob of FED fanatics that still pump everything they got into the market even though their leader(s)...

supere Updated 

We are likely approaching the event that will finally close the bull!@#$ MMT chapter of investment banking. The XLF sector is the most important sector to monitor as the speed and magnitude of its decline will likely dictate how the rest of the sectors will follow. Despite what the FED, government and bankers want us to believe, the financial system is not stable....

supere Updated 

Wave count, put-call sentiment, SKEW, VIX, and GANN timing all suggest that bank stocks (and likely the entire stock market) are about to get obliterated. GL.

supere

While most people have eyes fixated on the ever elusive AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ , completely skewed by the movement of the 7 generals (FAANG-MT) and a few other giant outliers like NASDAQ:NVDA , the broader Wilshire index has been riding along the gates of hell for nearly a year. Both the 10WMA and 50WMA have triggered the death cross with the 200WMA. MMT...

supere

I believe the market is on the cusp of a major flush down, likely toward the 200MMA. For over half a year, we have been violently bouncing up in down within the critical support zone 10500-12500 created during the 2020 MMA rally, while the volatility index VIX seems to be dying a slow death. However, likely it will come back to life when most least expect it, as...

supere Updated 

Is AAPL ready to join its FAANG-MT companions in the great fall? Not going to be fun for the world economy, but this sure looks like the way things are headed. All of the tech leaders at at critical decadian support, or close to those levels. Drew an extremely prolonged downward trendline, uncharacteristic of most bear markets, but seems to be the way this one is...

supere Updated 

The truth is that not many positions have created value beyond 2014 (fundamentally). The insane is many position have stretched way beyond imagination. Out of respect, koodos to the bulls who rode this up. Also out of respect, it is likely time to listen to the bears. I think Penthesileia's reign is over and Achilles is about to arrive. GL.

supere

Attempting to chart the beginning of the fall of MMT from grace and hence the market yet again. Use at your own risk. My advice has always been "cash is king." Bulls likely will be wasted; and so will bears who do not time it right.