welliguessso

welliguessso

Looking ahead. Assuming predictable cyclicality.

welliguessso

Why? Just cuz.

welliguessso

This might be overly optimistic and slightly baseless, but it's just an observation. So I saw this image (i.imgur.com) made in this comment (www.reddit.com) on reddit, expressing skepticism at all the 'bulls are back' sentiment. While I do agree that it's possible and think that people do get stuck in these patterns of thinking, I just noticed something that...

welliguessso

The LTC/BTC ratio has meandered within a pretty well defined sideways channel for almost a year now, kinda between .01 and .02 with a little leeway on either side. Coming up in about 2 weeks there is a convergence of trends, we'll see what happens but it is reasonable to expect it to stay within the sideways channel for at least the short-medium term. Trades...

welliguessso Updated 

Possible convergence on the ratio. Still within a longer term sideways channel.

welliguessso Updated 

Experimental ratio patterns

welliguessso

Projecting bitcoin into the future, assuming the past will repeat itself on a different scale.

welliguessso

LTCBTC could be breaking out.

welliguessso

Based on log scale, assuming long term continuation of upward movement.

welliguessso

Bitcoin may be gearing up to test the upper limit of the overall descending channel for the second time in a short period of time. Large inverted head and shoulders would indicate a reversal of the downtrend. Seeing some resemblance to the last bull/bear cycle (the one that peaked at just under $5000, then entered a downtrend which bottomed out ~$2900).

welliguessso

This chart shows is pure speculation showing a possible long-term path for litecoin to take. Just an idea (i.e. a wild guess).

welliguessso Updated 

I'm interested to see what happens in the next few weeks/months, because that last bullrun seems anomalous. LTC going to $135 from double digits was pretty insane, let alone going up to over $400. I expected it to break above 100 last time. Did not expect 200, let alone 400. I am expecting it to return to the lower $100 range and consolidate there for some time....

welliguessso

This adds to my previous chart which I realized is pretty unrealistic. It is still a copy of the previous price movement, superimposed into the future, but it doesnt go as far down as I had it before, which had it totally collapsing to like $20 lol. Instead, I am projecting a more realistic recovery after retesting lower 100s.

welliguessso Updated 

This chart assumes the downtrend will continue within its channel, as it has been. I copied the previous price movement and imposed it into the future as a rough estimate. I am not convinced that it will continue as far down as I have projected it, but I do think it is possible that LTC will retest $100 support again. Whether or not this will happen, or if the...

welliguessso

Litecoin continues to follow bitcoin and the rest of the market. Despite recently doubling in price, I think that litecoin is still well within a prevailing downtrend channel. Short term, expecting a decline to ~160.

welliguessso

BTC USD projection, looking into possible continuation of downtrend for next few weeks.

welliguessso

The main reason I don't think that this is a bear trap is because BTC cleanly bounced off its downtrend since ATH, making a third point of contact with a long down trendline. Litecoin doesn't look the same but we know BTC is king and strongly dictates movement. Check out this 4h chart: Pretty clean bounce off that trendline. There was no reason to believe in a...

welliguessso

The main reason I don't think that this recent downtrend (~ 2/20 - 2/22) is a bear trap is because BTC cleanly bounced off its downtrend since ATH, making a third point of contact with a trendline. Litecoin doesn't look the same but we know BTC is king and strongly dictates movement. Check out () 4h chart. Pretty clean bounce off that trendline. There was no...