Goose96

Goose96

The rand has surpassed my expectations recently and reminded me that the USDZAR pair tends to take the stairs up, and the elevator down. The risk-on swing last week allowed the rand to keep the pair below the 200-day MA resistance rate of 18.80 which saw the pair fall back onto the psychological rate of 18.50. The downside break out of the blue wedge thus...

Goose96

The risk on trade allowed equities to bounce off of their recent lows which saw the SPX test the 50-day MA resistance level of $5,130. A failed break above this resistance rate will allow the index to fall further onto the 38.2% fibo retracement level of $4,822.

Goose96

The critical support level to watch here is the 50-day MA at 4.38%, as a failed break below this yield will allow yields to spike to 5% off the back of a continued sell-off in US long-term paper despite the Feds efforts to aid the US bond market. Keep an eye on the tail in this week’s US 10-year note auction! The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last...

Goose96

The recent weak US data and last week’s dovish FOMC statement has seen the DXY ease and the index has pulled back (4th wave). The support level to watch now is the 50-day MA level of 104.54 and the 61.8% fibo retracement of 104.77. A failed break below this support range will allow the DXY to complete the 5-wave impulse on the chart which will take the DXY to...

Goose96 Updated 

The rand managed to stage an impressive recovery last week off the back of the increased risk on investor sentiment which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50-day and 200-day MA support rates. I did not expect the rand to pull the pair onto the upward blue trend line but the month-end flows helped nudge the rand a further than expected. This pair has...

Goose96

Brent crude oil has caught strong support off the 50-day MA of $85.50 pb and the move towards $93.40 pb is now firmly on the cards.

Goose96

The DXY is pulling back ahead of the FOMC statement and the US non-farm payrolls. The key support levels to watch are at 105.11 and 104.77. A failed break below this support range will allow the DXY to climb back to the 2023 high of 107.35. The main drivers behind the DXY pullback are the drop in US 10year yields and the appreciation of the battered Yen.

Goose96

The early morning Asian sessions saw some peculiar moves with the USDJPY pair falling to a low of 154.56. There are rumors of possible FX intervention from BoJ to save their vulnerable Yen. Simultaneously, there was strong buying pressure for the US 10year which is pulling yields down aggressively. The US 10-year yield is showing signs of pulling back following...

Goose96 Updated 

The USDZAR has bounced up aggressively after the major blue support range held its ground at 18.40. The pair climbed a full rand to 19.40 within two weeks after touching the 3-month low of 18.40. The red resistance range has however managed to come to the rand’s rescue which has allowed the pair to slide back below the downward blue trend line. The blue wedge I...

Goose96

Brent crude oil is pulling back as expected despite the elevated tension in the Middle East. A failed break below $85 per barrel will allow black gold to continue its move higher towards $95 per barrel.

Goose96

The dollar traded in a tight range last week and with the US GDP and US PCE data prints scheduled for the week ahead we may see some selling pressure on the over-bought greenback. I’m expecting a pullback towards the 61.8% Fibo level of 104.80 before the dollar bulls find continued momentum.

Goose96

US stock indexes are falling off of their all-time highs which has seen the S&P fall below the 50-day MA support level at $5,125. A failed move back above the 50-day MA at $5,120 will see the index fall lower onto the 38.2% Fibo rate of $4,820.

Goose96

The US treasury market is becoming agitated at the latest Fed stance that rates may most likely remain unchanged through the 2Q2024 and 3Q2024 which has put upward pressure on the US treasury yields. US 10-year yields broke back above 4.50% last week and a continued sell-off will see yields spike back to 5.00% for as long as the current Fed narrative holds it...

Goose96

If the support at 19.10 hold we will se a move higher towards 19.60. A break below the critical support of 18.97 will invalidate the idea.

Goose96 Updated 

A failed break below 19.10 will be an indication of a 5-wave impulse to 19.60. Critical support level remains on 18.97

Goose96 Updated 

The rand has been able to weather the storms of the broad-based stronger dollar thanks to the spike in precious metal prices however the rand did stumble at the back end of last week following the higher-than-expected US CPI print. The critical rates to watch on the USDZAR pair is the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97 and the 200-day MA rate of 18.75. I expect the 200-day...

Goose96 Updated 

With the help of stronger commodity prices, the local unit is weathering the volatility storms ahead of the local elections. The rand has been able to keep the USDZAR pair below the critical rate of 18.97 which has allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 200-day MA support of 18.75, despite the broad-based dollar strength. The pair however remains trapped in...

Goose96

Commodities are awakening from their slumber which is sparking renewed global inflation fears. Due to escalating global tensions, crude oil has surged more than 10% since the start of March which has seen the price per barrel close above $90 per barrel last week. Precious metals along with industrial metals have also benefitted from the rise in oil prices which...