As we can all observe, ETH is doing pretty bad against BTC. And I mean neck-deep-up-sh*t-creek-with-its-mouth-wide-open kinda bad LOL.
People are starting to worry and get flashbacks of the December 2020 dip of ETH against BTC.
The current situation is the price retesting a historic golden FIBONACCI level (61.8%) that's about 3 years old. This level is crucial because it's formed by the last cycle's bull-run surge.
Let's explore the possible and impossible, or rather unlikely, scenarios.
FIRST SCENARIO: Ethereum ETFs get approved.
This obviously is what we all wish for, not only ETH investors and fans, but everyone who cares about the Alt-coins market. I expect a huge surge from our golden FIBO level if this scenario occurs.
SECOND SCENARIO: Ethereum ETFs get disapproved.
In this case, it would be reasonable for the price to decline and retest the bottom of an even more historic symmetrical triangle structure that's as old as ETH.
The price should bounce from there as Ethereum recovers from the bad news and retry surpassing the golden FIBO level.
THIRD SCENARIO: Ethereum is doomed.
This is a very unlikely scenario, but let's humor it anyway. What if ETH fails to retest the bottom of the symmetrical triangle structure that's been containing its price action since millennia?
Well, I don't expect this to happen unless ETH fails to recover from the bad news and turns out to be a huge SCAM coin. The biggest scam coin in the history of crypto.
Sorry if this was too intrusive and scary. I just think it's reasonable to always consider the worst as we consider the best outcome possible.
The GREAT news is all of the speculations are pointing to the approval of the Ethereum ETFs, I personally expect the approval next week, so I'm ruling out anything but the BEST possible scenario for ETH this cycle!
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.
People are starting to worry and get flashbacks of the December 2020 dip of ETH against BTC.
The current situation is the price retesting a historic golden FIBONACCI level (61.8%) that's about 3 years old. This level is crucial because it's formed by the last cycle's bull-run surge.
Let's explore the possible and impossible, or rather unlikely, scenarios.
FIRST SCENARIO: Ethereum ETFs get approved.
This obviously is what we all wish for, not only ETH investors and fans, but everyone who cares about the Alt-coins market. I expect a huge surge from our golden FIBO level if this scenario occurs.
SECOND SCENARIO: Ethereum ETFs get disapproved.
In this case, it would be reasonable for the price to decline and retest the bottom of an even more historic symmetrical triangle structure that's as old as ETH.
The price should bounce from there as Ethereum recovers from the bad news and retry surpassing the golden FIBO level.
THIRD SCENARIO: Ethereum is doomed.
This is a very unlikely scenario, but let's humor it anyway. What if ETH fails to retest the bottom of the symmetrical triangle structure that's been containing its price action since millennia?
Well, I don't expect this to happen unless ETH fails to recover from the bad news and turns out to be a huge SCAM coin. The biggest scam coin in the history of crypto.
Sorry if this was too intrusive and scary. I just think it's reasonable to always consider the worst as we consider the best outcome possible.
The GREAT news is all of the speculations are pointing to the approval of the Ethereum ETFs, I personally expect the approval next week, so I'm ruling out anything but the BEST possible scenario for ETH this cycle!
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.
Comment:
UPDATE
ETH has completely erased a two-month decline against BTC and is still on the rise today.
Two things to really pay attention to:
1- VanEck's spot Ethereum ETF has been listed on the DTCC as $ETHV.
We should expect a surge in the market once US sessions are open.
2- There are millions of dollars to liquidate once ETH price reaches $4000.
It's safe to assume that ETH might have another upward go today.
Let's see
ETH has completely erased a two-month decline against BTC and is still on the rise today.
Two things to really pay attention to:
1- VanEck's spot Ethereum ETF has been listed on the DTCC as $ETHV.
We should expect a surge in the market once US sessions are open.
2- There are millions of dollars to liquidate once ETH price reaches $4000.
It's safe to assume that ETH might have another upward go today.
Let's see
Comment:
UPDATE
JUST IN: SEC officially approves all spot Ethereum ETFs.
Our June scenario is on.
I would wait for the news sell-off and the liquidation schemes to end before making new decisions.
ETH hasn't reached $4000, so we should expect pretty unexpected movement all over the market in the upcoming few days.
Congrats to the resilient investors and traders who believed in this cycle's potential!
JUST IN: SEC officially approves all spot Ethereum ETFs.
Our June scenario is on.
I would wait for the news sell-off and the liquidation schemes to end before making new decisions.
ETH hasn't reached $4000, so we should expect pretty unexpected movement all over the market in the upcoming few days.
Congrats to the resilient investors and traders who believed in this cycle's potential!
Comment:
UPDATE
Hooray! Our first target has been reached with one weekly candle.
The price is getting rejected from the 200 EMA as we had predicted, I expect it to retest the 50% FIBONACCI level before continuing its bull-run.
However, we should be ready for a non-stop rally as June approaches. The market is extremely volatile and hard to keep up with.
A few tips that I myself am always keeping in mind while trading these days:
- DO NOT trust the market movement until big short positions on ETH are liquidated. Our main metric is the $4000 price level. As long as ETH hasn't reached that level, you should assume its whole movement is manipulated.
- Take advantage of the volatility and the red candle wicks by placing limit buy orders on your favorite ALT coins, not by opening leveraged positions.
- BE PATIIENT. Keep to your strategy for the bull-run and don't let the market shake you off before the ALT season starts.
Hooray! Our first target has been reached with one weekly candle.
The price is getting rejected from the 200 EMA as we had predicted, I expect it to retest the 50% FIBONACCI level before continuing its bull-run.
However, we should be ready for a non-stop rally as June approaches. The market is extremely volatile and hard to keep up with.
A few tips that I myself am always keeping in mind while trading these days:
- DO NOT trust the market movement until big short positions on ETH are liquidated. Our main metric is the $4000 price level. As long as ETH hasn't reached that level, you should assume its whole movement is manipulated.
- Take advantage of the volatility and the red candle wicks by placing limit buy orders on your favorite ALT coins, not by opening leveraged positions.
- BE PATIIENT. Keep to your strategy for the bull-run and don't let the market shake you off before the ALT season starts.
ETH has rebounded from our golden FIBONACCI level.
And one piece of news about the Ethereum ETFs was enough to boost ETH against BTC.
As expected, ETH is breathing again and this could be the first day of our first scenario.
Stay tuned and beware of a possible major manipulation next Thursday and Friday.