SPY reached the top end of its ascending wedge it has been forming since October of 2023. QQQ is also in a similar spot, I'd expect a failure here. I've been expecting failures, but resistances keep getting broken, so I'll be cautiously optimistic about a failure here. VX is still showing strength, which I find odd. It may be telling of what's to come, but the...
I've posted a few ideas on VX, mostly focusing on a falling wedge from the top in April, but there's another wedge on a smaller time frame shown here. VX has broken above both the longer term and shorter term wedges. I would say this is a pretty large divergence, because ES and NQ are making new all time highs every day, but VX is showing strength. VX has failed...
A recap of today's action, another strong day for bulls. New all time highs for the S&P and Nasdaq, with semis like AVGO leading the way. VX remained fairly strong today in my opinion, still watching it closely to see if it can get back over 14.35 or if it's time for more decay.
BTC had a nice flush below the ascending wedge after it broke earlier. It's having a recovery rally now, but I'd expect this to fail if it moves all the way up to retest the wedge. There's also some horizontal resistance around there as well for it to contend with. If it's able to get past all that, I think the short term trend may be switching back to up.
The Dow has been relatively weak lately, but had a strong bounce off of support and formed an inverse head and shoulders, so I'd expect upside until that neckline is breached. First target would be the resistance above where it has already failed twice. If it's able to reclaim, I'd expect more upside and vice versa.
I forgot to mention the economic calendar and earnings calendar in the video. Earnings are really light this week, but there's a decent amount of economic data coming out. We also have a short week with Wednesday being a holiday. Don't forget that, if you're buying options early in the week, theta decay will be worse than usual because the market is closed on...
This is a shorter term chart for BTC with an ascending wedge it is trying to break below now. First target would be the previous low near FWB:65K , followed by the trendline below. It's currently sitting right under some longer term resistance, so that's another confirmation. If it breaks to the upside here and reclaims ~$67.3k, I'd see that as fairly bullish.
Bad week for the challenge account this week. I tried shorting MSFT and SMCI before CPI and got wrecked in short. The bearish bias did not pay off this week, especially when it came to tech and semis. I should have picked something weaker and not held through CPI, but I can't change it now.
The market crash did not start this week unfortunately for me and my puts, but I still have confidence in the setup. I believe we're seeing a large divergence between NQ, ES and the rest of the market, which will eventually correct, it's just hard to say when. I know many are bullish due to the election year and other things, but I remain firm in my stance that we...
ES has a nice looking bear flag on the 15m and VX is strong today all of a sudden. I'd expect this to break to the downside before close,.but not sure how far it can go..Depends on how high VX goes I suppose. For now just watching previous highs and lows for potential support if it does drop.
We are finally seeing the strength in have been expecting from VX today. This is a pretty large divergence between VX and NQ so I'd expect more downside today unless.VX fails as usual. I would not want to be a bull if this thing gets moving after breaking a downtrend that started in April.
Here's another ascending wedge here on NQ. It closed above today for the first time, so looking fairly bullish for now, but it's far from being a confirmed breakout. I'll be watching this wedge and the one on ES moving forward. ES has moved quite a bit further above its wedge than NQ, but neither have sustained the breakout just yet. Here's some paths I'd expect...
QQQ rejected perfectly on a retest of its previous ascending channel from the rally over the last year. It has finally gone back for that retest after breaking well below in April. It's not a big rejection yet, but this is something bears can feel good about. I'm still confident in my prediction and today has reaffirmed that confidence honestly, but I still...
Silver is struggling along with BTC and other inflation assets at the moment as DXY climbs. Silver recently had a huge squeeze and then immediate drop. I see this as quite bearish, but it hasn't moved much since. Currently forming a bear flag right above support which I expect to break.
BTC had a hard rejection after rallying on the CPI print, but failed on a retest of it's previous trendline support. Now it's sitting back at demand, bulls need to defend here or it's likely headed towards $50-$60k. Not looking great for inflation assets in this overnight session, but we'll see what the morning brings.
DXY had a lot of weakness after the CPI release this morning, but has slowly been recovering since the fed minutes were released show a target rate of only one cut by year's end. DXY held trendline support and is heading back up for another breakout attempt. If it does breakout, it should lead to significant weakness on NQ.
So everything went almost exactly as I expected today, but there was a big problem, no sell off and no life for VX. Going into the day I wasn't sure about CPI but figured a hot or cool reading would get a reaction, but didn't expect that big of a rally off of a 0.01% cool print which was mostly as expected. After CPI release, fed fund futures priced in a 75%...
I give my thoughts on CPI and FOMC. Some of the things I'm looking for and my opinion on rate cut expectations.