In truth, I haven't traded SPY or ES1! for some weeks and haven't been tracking it too, too closely anymore.
But here are the levels for next week.
Based on the chart (heikin ashi), upside is the expectation; though, I do foresee it being painful at first, and then probably out of nowhere just going for some highs. Becuase you know, its over extended.
We should end the year at testing ATHs and maybe making a new ATH (Can you believe it? shesh.. everyone wrong on that one, or least 95% of us who said No ATHs ever again).
Remember not to short at ATHs as a swing, I've made that mistake before. There will be a lot of people jumping in short at ATH so you can expect an immediate reject, but it will likely circle back and break it.
Presumptions that ATHs are coming, but it seems the reality of the situation. The S&P needs to re-test before it can move on with its life.
I have updated these weekly forecasts to include reference target. I stopped referencing the reference target because it was antiquated. But in my pursuit of premium indicator making, I had to go back and update a bunch of outdated stuff, so the reference target is back and in the chart (its yellow, but because its within the threshold level it appears green, essentially it just asserts a test of the lower bound of the threshold).
Short interest is incredibly high on NQ1! and NAZZY-Poo, but SPY is meh, at least on the futures side of things. I think the expectation of large market participants is the same expectation that I am advancing in this idea, that ATHs need to be re-tested. (A follower / trader has informed me of COT data, so that is what I am referencing here, not options interest).
And that is pretty much it for now. Will probably not update this idea with anything pertaining to SPY haha, but maybe by some stretch of a miracle I will feel obligated to trade SPY, in which case I will update.
Safe trades everyone!
But here are the levels for next week.
Based on the chart (heikin ashi), upside is the expectation; though, I do foresee it being painful at first, and then probably out of nowhere just going for some highs. Becuase you know, its over extended.
We should end the year at testing ATHs and maybe making a new ATH (Can you believe it? shesh.. everyone wrong on that one, or least 95% of us who said No ATHs ever again).
Remember not to short at ATHs as a swing, I've made that mistake before. There will be a lot of people jumping in short at ATH so you can expect an immediate reject, but it will likely circle back and break it.
Presumptions that ATHs are coming, but it seems the reality of the situation. The S&P needs to re-test before it can move on with its life.
I have updated these weekly forecasts to include reference target. I stopped referencing the reference target because it was antiquated. But in my pursuit of premium indicator making, I had to go back and update a bunch of outdated stuff, so the reference target is back and in the chart (its yellow, but because its within the threshold level it appears green, essentially it just asserts a test of the lower bound of the threshold).
Short interest is incredibly high on NQ1! and NAZZY-Poo, but SPY is meh, at least on the futures side of things. I think the expectation of large market participants is the same expectation that I am advancing in this idea, that ATHs need to be re-tested. (A follower / trader has informed me of COT data, so that is what I am referencing here, not options interest).
And that is pretty much it for now. Will probably not update this idea with anything pertaining to SPY haha, but maybe by some stretch of a miracle I will feel obligated to trade SPY, in which case I will update.
Safe trades everyone!
Comment:
Forgot to include levels for tomorrow:
Comment:
Actually took a SPY trade today.
Just got short, weekly threshold real time:
Looking for a move to the bototm and then maybe the reference target. I will take whatever we get today. Stop out will be a move just above the threshold. Pretty good entry area here for managing risk.
Just got short, weekly threshold real time:
Looking for a move to the bototm and then maybe the reference target. I will take whatever we get today. Stop out will be a move just above the threshold. Pretty good entry area here for managing risk.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stopped flat.
Not going to even both trying to ever short again.
We will see if that sentiment continues into 2024 but as of now, I will actively go out of my way to avoid shorts.
GLTA!
Not going to even both trying to ever short again.
We will see if that sentiment continues into 2024 but as of now, I will actively go out of my way to avoid shorts.
GLTA!
Comment:
PH1 taken out and PH2 almost taken out.
There is no technical indication on the Heikin Ashi chart of a continuation to the upside, though the S&P was the play of the day as it was slightly less rangy than the NAZ and tech in general.
Bias is hard to determine here. We have those high prob targets on the week on QQQ and SPY.
However the more rangey behaviour today and less of a push from buyers to continue pushing this up with a lot of conviction shows continued waning bullish momentum. Whether that can lead to a the start of a pullback before next year is TBD. However, the signs are telling.
Only fundamental catalyst this week is PCE on Friday and GDP on Thursday.
Bias on SPY: Neutral.
PH1 taken out and PH2 almost taken out.
There is no technical indication on the Heikin Ashi chart of a continuation to the upside, though the S&P was the play of the day as it was slightly less rangy than the NAZ and tech in general.
Bias is hard to determine here. We have those high prob targets on the week on QQQ and SPY.
However the more rangey behaviour today and less of a push from buyers to continue pushing this up with a lot of conviction shows continued waning bullish momentum. Whether that can lead to a the start of a pullback before next year is TBD. However, the signs are telling.
Only fundamental catalyst this week is PCE on Friday and GDP on Thursday.
Bias on SPY: Neutral.
Comment:
Clarification: High prob targets are to the downside for both SPY and QQQ.
Comment:
Am I the only one getting sick of constantly just mindlessly longing this garbage every day? Lol, its actually really starting to irritate me.
I am having a hard time, psychologically, with this price action. I have never seen such aggressive and relentless bullish pushing, even in 2021. The only time I somewhat saw something semi similar was the post COVID recovery. That is kind of the most recent and lived example I can think of. Otherwise, this is just obnoxiously unnecessary.
That said, the market is actually topping, for real this time. And I don't mean like parabolic collapse, new lows, etc. because no. New lows are not going to happen, I know some people still cling to that theory but its just so unlikely absent any kind of really disastrous external event.
But what I am referring to is just a local top. There are a bunch of warning signs:
This is a big one. We had a signaled top a little while ago, on Dec 13th. But we continued pushing up.
These tops always lead to a min pullback of around 5%. I will save the chart for a bigger analyiss I will do over the weekend, but that is to say, the further up this pushes the larger its going to fall.
We also, on a YTD basis, are in the red when we standardize this year to date data on Z-Score:
And there are sell signals in many other departments, too, but these are the ones I put most weight on.
That said, everything is on pause. We are at extreme greed and its going to continue until SPY re-tests and potentially breaks its all time highs. The market isn't being fueled by anything other than Greed and psychology right now which is why all of my stuff is broken (probs, gts, various other probability modelling techniques). The only way to trade it is to rely on the fact that the greed will continue until EOY or SPY hits ATH, whichever comes first.
I am saying this now for two reasons:
a) its not a short and
b) Forget the analysis, technical and chart patterns because it really doesn't matter....
GLTA!
I am having a hard time, psychologically, with this price action. I have never seen such aggressive and relentless bullish pushing, even in 2021. The only time I somewhat saw something semi similar was the post COVID recovery. That is kind of the most recent and lived example I can think of. Otherwise, this is just obnoxiously unnecessary.
That said, the market is actually topping, for real this time. And I don't mean like parabolic collapse, new lows, etc. because no. New lows are not going to happen, I know some people still cling to that theory but its just so unlikely absent any kind of really disastrous external event.
But what I am referring to is just a local top. There are a bunch of warning signs:
This is a big one. We had a signaled top a little while ago, on Dec 13th. But we continued pushing up.
These tops always lead to a min pullback of around 5%. I will save the chart for a bigger analyiss I will do over the weekend, but that is to say, the further up this pushes the larger its going to fall.
We also, on a YTD basis, are in the red when we standardize this year to date data on Z-Score:
And there are sell signals in many other departments, too, but these are the ones I put most weight on.
That said, everything is on pause. We are at extreme greed and its going to continue until SPY re-tests and potentially breaks its all time highs. The market isn't being fueled by anything other than Greed and psychology right now which is why all of my stuff is broken (probs, gts, various other probability modelling techniques). The only way to trade it is to rely on the fact that the greed will continue until EOY or SPY hits ATH, whichever comes first.
I am saying this now for two reasons:
a) its not a short and
b) Forget the analysis, technical and chart patterns because it really doesn't matter....
GLTA!
Comment:
In light of how we closed... I may have to renig on my "Don't short" haha.
The tumble was expected because there was a GT on SPY and QQQ unhit.
But it actually surpassed those GTs and broke down the downside of the range.
Depending on who you ask, SPY has made an ATH (if you use dividend / inflation adjusted data). So maybe this is the turning point because that was a pretty star rejection.
Like I said, tops showing up everywhere on multiple things of mine.
The last point I want to make, and keep in mind I will do a more in depth post about kind of what to expect leading into 2024, but anyway I have been experimenting with volume a bit more and creating something that you could call a Volume Adjusted Retracement Level (VARL). What this does, is it uses cumulative buying and selling volume on SPY, as well as the leveraged share positioning on SPXS and SPXL and the monthly close price to print a a price target on the month that serves as a volume "POC" type thing.
Went in just experimenting with things, my intent was to find sort of POC using volume but in a price format. It actually turns out that its another 99, haha.
So, over the last 2 years, never missed. Over the last 5 years, missed twice. This year, never missed.
The VARL it gives for December (right now) is 447. Now I kind of reserved this to being unlikely, but ... thought I would just put it out there, because if we look at the Top and Bottom Volume Marker indicator (that I showed previously), everytime a top is signled (which was signled on SPY on December 13th), SPY pulls back min 5% from the top signal. 5% from the top signal was 447.
All very, VERY curious.
Safe trades everyone!
The tumble was expected because there was a GT on SPY and QQQ unhit.
But it actually surpassed those GTs and broke down the downside of the range.
Depending on who you ask, SPY has made an ATH (if you use dividend / inflation adjusted data). So maybe this is the turning point because that was a pretty star rejection.
Like I said, tops showing up everywhere on multiple things of mine.
The last point I want to make, and keep in mind I will do a more in depth post about kind of what to expect leading into 2024, but anyway I have been experimenting with volume a bit more and creating something that you could call a Volume Adjusted Retracement Level (VARL). What this does, is it uses cumulative buying and selling volume on SPY, as well as the leveraged share positioning on SPXS and SPXL and the monthly close price to print a a price target on the month that serves as a volume "POC" type thing.
Went in just experimenting with things, my intent was to find sort of POC using volume but in a price format. It actually turns out that its another 99, haha.
So, over the last 2 years, never missed. Over the last 5 years, missed twice. This year, never missed.
The VARL it gives for December (right now) is 447. Now I kind of reserved this to being unlikely, but ... thought I would just put it out there, because if we look at the Top and Bottom Volume Marker indicator (that I showed previously), everytime a top is signled (which was signled on SPY on December 13th), SPY pulls back min 5% from the top signal. 5% from the top signal was 447.
All very, VERY curious.
Safe trades everyone!
Comment:
Late update,
Wonderful PA today. Whenever the market is destined to be bearish, we get this garbage. God forbid we let it touch ANY low targets haha.
Anyway it ook both SPY and QQQ over 3 hours to touch the first daily low target. Was the most painful trade I have taken in a while. Thankfully I was out and about and just let it do its thing while I waited for the alert, but you know.
Going into tomorrow, still things are coming up bearish, so be careful. We may see a continuation of this whipsawy/fighty type behaviour. Though we do have a PCE catalyst and this is the LAST MAJOR CATALYST OF THE YEAR!!! So this will be really interesting to see how the market takes it.
Otherwise, no real thoughts. We're continuing to top at this point, unless this can make a higher high tomorrow its uh, its topped.
Based on the various sell signals that have manifested in my stuff, the anticipated pullback is roughly 5% from the recent high.
That's it!
Safe trades!
Wonderful PA today. Whenever the market is destined to be bearish, we get this garbage. God forbid we let it touch ANY low targets haha.
Anyway it ook both SPY and QQQ over 3 hours to touch the first daily low target. Was the most painful trade I have taken in a while. Thankfully I was out and about and just let it do its thing while I waited for the alert, but you know.
Going into tomorrow, still things are coming up bearish, so be careful. We may see a continuation of this whipsawy/fighty type behaviour. Though we do have a PCE catalyst and this is the LAST MAJOR CATALYST OF THE YEAR!!! So this will be really interesting to see how the market takes it.
Otherwise, no real thoughts. We're continuing to top at this point, unless this can make a higher high tomorrow its uh, its topped.
Based on the various sell signals that have manifested in my stuff, the anticipated pullback is roughly 5% from the recent high.
That's it!
Safe trades!
Comment:
100% untradeable market, for real.
No momentum in either direction and too little volume.
I'm out until January.
Safe trades all!
No momentum in either direction and too little volume.
I'm out until January.
Safe trades all!
Comment:
Ended up shorting QQQ at the TD sell signal. Took off half at PL1 (in this kind of choppy PA I do shares, its easier to scale and not as hard to protect your position from losses). Will get out the rest if we break back over the bearish condition. Otherwise, inclined to swing this over the holidays because:
a) The video analysis I posted earlier today and
b) No new highs. Albeit, no new lows either, but also, no new highs :p.
Safe trades everyone :-).
Ended up shorting QQQ at the TD sell signal. Took off half at PL1 (in this kind of choppy PA I do shares, its easier to scale and not as hard to protect your position from losses). Will get out the rest if we break back over the bearish condition. Otherwise, inclined to swing this over the holidays because:
a) The video analysis I posted earlier today and
b) No new highs. Albeit, no new lows either, but also, no new highs :p.
Safe trades everyone :-).
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