acatwithcharts

acatwithcharts Updated 

I have been waiting for the moment where my confidence was high enough to say the top was in for most of 2021. The relentless grind upwards has kept providing moments that "could be the one", but all have been quickly bounced before any real technical damage could be done. Hence, we went almost a year from the last 5% SPX correction until now. This will be...

acatwithcharts Updated 

I called for the generational short on US equities at the beginning of this year. I was, in fairness, calling for a slower, more typical bear market and not the sharpest selloff in US history other than Black Monday. I didn't pick "global pandemic" as "the reason" it would happen - but rather my thesis was that we'd reached 2000's extremes of index valuations /...

acatwithcharts Updated 

SPX/GDP is at a double top with its March 2000 peak. The NASDAQ 100 meanwhile, for which that 2000 chart has been the go-to example for "what a bubble looks like and how an 85% drop is a typical bubble retracement target” for the past 20 years, is just 15% away from reaching that same threshold. There's a large bear graveyard built over the past decade that...

acatwithcharts Updated 

I think this chart is very clean. We retraced to the implied mean reversion level and appear to be retesting it bullish. CCI rolled up. Initial target is the 1.25 STDEV of the implied period and we should expect to consolidate inside of it for the time being. That said, I think there's also an FA case for trend continuation as equities close in on ATH despite...

acatwithcharts Updated 

XRP has participated less in the bounces from the December 2018 selloff than ETH. My hunch is that you can thank the fact that it bottomed and broke out in September for a lot of divergence. It's needed a long time to re-compress. I think it's either ready for a very large rally, or at least presenting an opportunity to catch another one of its pumps, and is...

acatwithcharts Updated 

On the 4h chart, we have become approximately rangebound by overhead compressing periods between the W 200 SMA - which is where we bounced this past December and was the main support we adhered to and retested repeatedly while forming the bottom in 2015, and the implied pivot for mean reversion on the longest overexpanded period created by the November drop. This...

acatwithcharts Updated 

I don't normally trade equities, but this is a pretty clean chart. Clean enough to get me intrigued. SPX already tested its W 200 MA. NASDAQ has been trending down with the rest of US equities, still hasn't reached out to that institutional benchmark, but as the bounce in equities has now reached out to confluence volatility resistances, it finds itself at a...

acatwithcharts Updated 

It's been awhile since I've posted a public idea. I learned a lot of things that do and don't work this year, now code a lot of indicators, and do a lot of things from different angles. This one though seems pretty beautiful and straightforward. While I'll say that you can layer this with more indicators, I think distribution and volume profile tells the story...

acatwithcharts Updated 

Step back for a second. Look at the bigger picture. We are sitting on a key support level with longstanding bull divergences in a number of key indicators and some pretty big hints about what the bigger players have in mind if you start looking through various Bitfinex longs and shorts. These days, I think people ought to strongly consider pairing their BTC...

acatwithcharts Updated 

Credit to Glitch420 for the idea to take a closer look at ETC. What I found when I did has made me quite excited about it. ETC got an initial breakout alongside other alts at the April bottom but then cratered in May, giving back all of its gains. In the middle of May however, Accum/Dist. started diverging substantially and longs stopped closing. Then, in the...

acatwithcharts Updated 

So, there are a lot of ways to skin a cat (with charts). There are a lot of models that get to the same result right now that June is going to play out much like April. Wyckoff is one of them, and it's far cleaner this time than it was at the April bottom. (Other ways to attack cats with charts may include volume indicators where there's clear bullish divergence...

acatwithcharts Updated 

At around 8:45 UTC on April 28 2018, in two minutes the Bitfinex BTCUSD price swung suddenly and violent between 9500 and 8750 and generated one of the highest volume candles in months. The 9500 and 8750 prices used for the apparent stop hunt didn't seem correlated that well with trends up to that point, and were hard to explain at the time that they...

acatwithcharts

(I'd say up front that "high market cap" is subjective, that obviously some other top coins have a lot more running room and some of them will. The title is more about how straightforwardly bullish I think the chart is than it is a claim about nominal returns - I'm saying that the R:R looks unusually good from the risk side because the bet looks to me to be much...

acatwithcharts Updated 

I've never seen anything quite like this. This whole drop appears to be being bought margin long on Bitfinex. Interestingly, about a week ago, there was a similar mass closing of short positions and opening of longs at a similar price region. As seems to be my common refrain - I'd prefer to show this action on a shorter chart than 15m where the action is clearer,...

acatwithcharts Updated 

Chart is self-explanatory. I could really just post that picture and "BTFD" as a one-word explanation. Pretty much everyone, myself included, has been drawing the channel wrong for a month because there was no second touch of the bottom. In the past 24 hours there was - and now the channel makes so much more sense. We didn't break it at 9750 at all. We've always...

acatwithcharts Updated 

Another week of sideways in BTC turns out to be a much more exciting week of sideways than most - for the chart which has ranged nearly 15% from the local high has been a lot more volatile than it has been for awhile. Fortunately, the pattern is now really clear and I'm willing to put my butt on the line and say that the next major move up is soon to come. We...

acatwithcharts Updated 

36 hours of correction is all it took for the bears to start calling for BTC to fall through the floor again. I disagree strongly and I'm going to go ahead and take the risk of publishing a counter-case. We're at November levels of sentiment by various indicators. USDBTCLONGS/USDBTCSHORTS is at a level that has generally led to legs upward. Longs and shorts are...

acatwithcharts

Roughly 1 year ago, BTC went on a Spring bull run of +200% before it corrected more than about 15%. You can go a long way up during the disbelief stage of the market cycle without correcting. In the face of a remarkably steady march upwards with strong support against any attempted corrections which even started around the same time as last year (and the kicker:...