claypuzzle

claypuzzle Updated 

Since the New Year started SOXL has declined hard Straight into a -1 sig anticipated support around 25. Which is also a weekly level from 7/14/2023 There seems to be a jump over at VWAP around 28 which is also the daily close from 12/20/2023. The bet here is that it stays in the 22-31 range and the fresh Weekly supports at the red lines hold. It could keep pushing...

claypuzzle Updated 

Looking to sell 60 strikes on USO out to Jan 19, 2024. That's 1 deviation down and about 45 days out.

claypuzzle Updated 

Symbol TLT Open Date 11/8/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 95 Long Strike 97 Price to Open 0.24 Min Width Multiple 4 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 44 1 Day ROI% 0.31% Max Annual ROI % 113.1% TLT sold yesterday early afternoon as it tested +1 sig on the Bearish 4h/Daily range. Perfect textbook setup and entry execution...

claypuzzle

ARKK when modeled from the Oct 2023 rally base shows an inflection at VWAP 1x as support and 2x as resistance. It's been hovering just above -1 sig where it touched a Weekly level a whopping 3x. Yesterday it swept below it and this morning it's rallying on the 5 min. If it had run the weekly level lows it'd be another story But for now I'm viewing it as a...

claypuzzle

GLD tapped off the Weekly level 185 and has held it for over a week now. I think it could just actually hold right here or push down into the Blue line / Green highlighter level Daily level 183 and find support before moving higher. There is a fresh Weekly Daily MTF level at the Pink highlighter 179. Which is where I would put a short Put strike trading this as...

claypuzzle

Sold the 58 strike on XLU yesterday afternoon. It hit a weekly level and looked like it wanted to stop selling with small candles on the down move. Kind of in between the higher time frame declining -1 sig and the rising -1 sig with the best inflection point on VWAP. It's that weekly rejection that I'm anticipating happening. The strike is positioned at 58 which...

claypuzzle

I'm already short SOXL puts down at 22 set to expire, and was looking to get on a full condor. The resistance side has a bunch of spikes from early 2022 on the weekly that are all tested levels. Inside the last spike is a Daily level 45.58 that is likely where the rally is headed to find liquidity. When it tests there, I will look to sell calls at or above 57.50 or 58.

claypuzzle Updated 

Symbol XOP Open Date 11/8/2023 Put or Call Put Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 131 Long Strike 130 Price to Open 0.25 Min Width Multiple 2 Risk Ratio 3.00 Return on Risk 33.3% Opening DTE 44 1 Day ROI% 0.76% Max Annual ROI % 276.5% XOP testing the 4h/Daily Bull range. Held Oct 5 and buyer resumed. Test again could fail, but could also attract enough activity...

claypuzzle

XLE came down into, touched and wicked the weekly close of the week 12/04/2023 yesterday. I did not have an alert set so I missed the first opportunity. It wicked it on the daily chart. So this morning around 10 I saw it was near the lows of yesterday again. and the 2 weekly levels around 81 also held price in mid Dec 2023. I sold the 80 Put strike at 3 wide down...

claypuzzle Updated 

Symbol SPY Open Date 11/10/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 12/29/2023 Short Strike 460 Long Strike 462 Price to Open 0.28 Min Width Multiple 2 Risk Ratio 6.14 Return on Risk 16.3% Opening DTE 49 1 Day ROI% 0.33% Max Annual ROI % 121.3% SPY Bear call spread up at +2 sig on the daily buying range still in play. This one expires right up on Xmas break 12/22 It...

claypuzzle Updated 

Symbol XLE Open Date 11/6/2023 Bear Call or Bull Put Put Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 80 Long Strike 78 Price to Open 0.30 Min Width Multiple 4 Risk Ratio 5.67 Return on Risk 17.6% Opening DTE 46 1 Day ROI% 0.38% Max Annual ROI % 140.0% Longer term is bullish on XLE. Has engaged -1 sig Buying Oct 5 which would have been the best time and place to sell...

claypuzzle Updated 

ymbol GDX Open Date 11/9/2023 Put or Call Put Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 25 Long Strike 24 Price to Open 0.12 Min Width Multiple 2 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 43 1 Day ROI% 0.32% Max Annual ROI % 115.8% GDX hit a -2 sig on the weekly timeframe back on Oct 4/5 just like a lot of stuff did. Pushed up and took out the previous bearish...

claypuzzle

XBI is testing +2 sig from the last range selloff. There was fair respect for the Average on black line but the high value seller did not return at +1 sig. So now at +2 sig I don't think it's likely the seller returns aggressively enough for a push down. The much longer timeframe seller got filled in July at +1 at the Red line and has continued to sell. If the...

claypuzzle Updated 

Symbol EWZ Open Date 11/6/2023 Bear Call or Bull Put Call Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 34.5 Long Strike 36 Price to Open 0.18 Min Width Multiple 3 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 46 1 Day ROI% 0.30% Max Annual ROI % 108.2% Longer term, the buyer stepped in on the -1 sig test Oct 6 Rebought the Bearish range -1 sig and the selle did not...

claypuzzle

Symbol SOXL Open Date 11/14/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 12/29/2023 Short Strike 27 Long Strike 29 Price to Open 0.25 Min Width Multiple 3 Risk Ratio 7.00 Return on Risk 14.3% Opening DTE 45 1 Day ROI% 0.32% Max Annual ROI % 115.9% SOXL hitting +1 sig on the declining model. The thought is that the previous seller at +1 sig returns with some capital and...

claypuzzle

Symbol USO Open Date 11/8/2023 Put or Call Put Expiry Date 1/19/2024 Short Strike 65 Long Strike 64 Price to Open 0.24 Min Width Multiple 2 Risk Ratio 3.17 Return on Risk 31.6% Opening DTE 72 1 Day ROI% 0.44% Max Annual ROI % 160.1% USO has the worst calendars of any ETF. Tested the Bullish Daily -1 sig in the morning and I sold behind -2 sig at 65. Essentially...

claypuzzle Updated 

SPY 11/3/2023 11/3/2023 Call Expires 12/15/2023 Sold 452 Bought 454 Credit 0.43 Risk Ratio 3.65 Return on Risk 27.4% Opening DTE 42 I am modeling the SPY in higher timeframe Bullish rally off -2 sig last week. The Bearish range beginning in mid Sept tested a triple top at +1 sig. While the shortest bear range seller did NOT return, it was end of the week on...

claypuzzle

204/205 Call credit 10 DTE 0.20, 2 mins before the close. Tried for 0.22 and 0.21, couldn't get it. Testing descending VWAP. Not testing VWAP on M2K or RTY yet 1980