The recent death of Iran's President might initially impact oil prices due to concerns about Middle East instability. However, this effect is likely to be temporary for several reasons:
Limited Presidential Power: In Iran, the President's role is more executive, with real power concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader. Therefore, the President's death does not signify a major shift in governance or policy direction.
Supreme Leader's Influence: The President, including the late Ibrahim Raisi, is essentially elected by the Supreme Leader. This ensures continuity in Iran's political landscape, reducing the likelihood of significant instability.
Market Realization: Any initial market reaction based on fears of instability is expected to be short-lived. As the market realizes that the Supreme Leader's authority remains unchanged, confidence should return, stabilizing oil prices.
In summary, while there may be an initial reaction in the oil market, it is unlikely to result in long-term chaos or a significant deviation from the current market direction.