I deem it important to visit long term projections of the instruments we are trading on day to day basis. Therefore, today we are going to discuss about what is happening on XAUUSD monthly. In my last long term projection ideas (See related ideas) I claimed that the major downtrend has struck the yellow metal. We underwent a major reversal triggered by breaking a three year support at 1680. Later, we were struck with 3 months of correction where gold drove the trend from 1614 to 1959. Now, we have the following technical parameters dictating the resuming of the second monthly bearish wave (the first one carried on for over 9 months from 2075 to 1614):
1- Our first reversal signal candle has appeared during the month of February 2023 as a dark cloud cover candlestick on monthly tf, projecting the start of a new bearish wave.
2- It is a perfect picture considering we were followed by the three months of correction after 9 months of bearish trend.
3- Earlier, during the last three years, our consolidation high and low were 2075 and 1680 respectively since, we never broke higher than 2075 during the bullish up move so that remains valid so far. But, we broke through the 1680 low support level so it is no longer valid and now we have a new low at 1614. Which means our double tops M pattern is still valid from the last monthly ideas (see related ideas).
4- Our current lower low and lower high are marked at 1614 and 1959 respectively, which marks the big picture to remain as long term bearish.
5- Now that we have bounced off after a sound bullish correction we are good to expect a new low for the current year or the next possibly.
6- Now, our task remains to determine the new possible monthly low for the upcoming bear tide. Note that we must break through the current low at 1614 to expect new low. Therefore, if that is to be the case, the potential candidates for the new lower low are the white horizontal lines and the bottom of the second lower purple Darvas box.
As far as the fundamentals are concerned, The Federal Reserve rate hike mania remains the leading factor in the USD uprising.
1- Our first reversal signal candle has appeared during the month of February 2023 as a dark cloud cover candlestick on monthly tf, projecting the start of a new bearish wave.
2- It is a perfect picture considering we were followed by the three months of correction after 9 months of bearish trend.
3- Earlier, during the last three years, our consolidation high and low were 2075 and 1680 respectively since, we never broke higher than 2075 during the bullish up move so that remains valid so far. But, we broke through the 1680 low support level so it is no longer valid and now we have a new low at 1614. Which means our double tops M pattern is still valid from the last monthly ideas (see related ideas).
4- Our current lower low and lower high are marked at 1614 and 1959 respectively, which marks the big picture to remain as long term bearish.
5- Now that we have bounced off after a sound bullish correction we are good to expect a new low for the current year or the next possibly.
6- Now, our task remains to determine the new possible monthly low for the upcoming bear tide. Note that we must break through the current low at 1614 to expect new low. Therefore, if that is to be the case, the potential candidates for the new lower low are the white horizontal lines and the bottom of the second lower purple Darvas box.
As far as the fundamentals are concerned, The Federal Reserve rate hike mania remains the leading factor in the USD uprising.
