As elaborated in my previous idea that we have undergone a bearish reversal on gold, this is the further explanation of what to expect in the upcoming adventure of bearish trend continuation. And what the daily frame has to offer in the longer run. As it dropped from 1959 it dropped us a high and low price (1860 rounded off). This has allowed us to apply the Darvas Box concept to understand and identify the targets, as the trend continues hitting lower levels. Our guideline in this analysis are the following technical parameters:
1- Fibonacci retracement levels drawn between the extremes of the previous move i.e. between 1959.79 and 1613.75. They are best observed and followed on bigger moves
2- Ichimoku Kinko hayo with double up parameters
3- Chart pattern analysis (Inverted cup and handle)
4- Darvas Box theory, ideal for trending market analysis
5- Downtrend channel
Now as far as the analysis is concerned, I have the following parameters that indicate that we should avoid long entries and take short positions after bullish corrections or consolidations to side with the Primary Bearish trend:
1- I already told you that we have a major reversal pattern i.e. inverted cup and handle, spotted in my previous idea (see related ideas). It provided us the opportunity to short XAUUSD as its neckline ruptured at ~1860
2- Arguably, we are observing a minor downtrend channel (Marked in orange), as long we do not break higher from the upper border, we are not sure if daily/weekly correction has commenced, I will publish possible targets of the correction under this idea to know where it might head, whenever consolidation starts.
3- In my previous idea, our first structural target was 1830. Now, since we are lower than 1830 also the ~1828 Fibonacci retracement level, we should expect the target which is next in line at the moment i.e. between 1788 (Fibo level) and 1791 (structural target as demonstrated in my previous idea)
4- We are currently in the second Darvas box of our daily timeframe bearish trend cycle, it ends around 1770 therefore, I have highlighted the zone between 1770 and consecutive fFbo level 1788 as our target zone for the current trend extension cycle
5- We will talk about the third Darvas box region once we have breached the limits of the second however, its target extends as far as 1680, I have marked its target zone with a similar looking white box as I have demonstrated in the second box
6- Until weekly timeframe gives us a similar picture where we can use similar trend extension technical parameters, we will just stick to this daily timeframe analysis. In order to spot the week first box high and low, the price must give us some consecutive green weekly candles to mark the initiation of weekly timeframe correction.
That is all the data I could extract from the chart at the moment, will come back with more info and technical aspects as soon as they appear on the chart. Till then best of luck and happy trading :-)
1- Fibonacci retracement levels drawn between the extremes of the previous move i.e. between 1959.79 and 1613.75. They are best observed and followed on bigger moves
2- Ichimoku Kinko hayo with double up parameters
3- Chart pattern analysis (Inverted cup and handle)
4- Darvas Box theory, ideal for trending market analysis
5- Downtrend channel
Now as far as the analysis is concerned, I have the following parameters that indicate that we should avoid long entries and take short positions after bullish corrections or consolidations to side with the Primary Bearish trend:
1- I already told you that we have a major reversal pattern i.e. inverted cup and handle, spotted in my previous idea (see related ideas). It provided us the opportunity to short XAUUSD as its neckline ruptured at ~1860
2- Arguably, we are observing a minor downtrend channel (Marked in orange), as long we do not break higher from the upper border, we are not sure if daily/weekly correction has commenced, I will publish possible targets of the correction under this idea to know where it might head, whenever consolidation starts.
3- In my previous idea, our first structural target was 1830. Now, since we are lower than 1830 also the ~1828 Fibonacci retracement level, we should expect the target which is next in line at the moment i.e. between 1788 (Fibo level) and 1791 (structural target as demonstrated in my previous idea)
4- We are currently in the second Darvas box of our daily timeframe bearish trend cycle, it ends around 1770 therefore, I have highlighted the zone between 1770 and consecutive fFbo level 1788 as our target zone for the current trend extension cycle
5- We will talk about the third Darvas box region once we have breached the limits of the second however, its target extends as far as 1680, I have marked its target zone with a similar looking white box as I have demonstrated in the second box
6- Until weekly timeframe gives us a similar picture where we can use similar trend extension technical parameters, we will just stick to this daily timeframe analysis. In order to spot the week first box high and low, the price must give us some consecutive green weekly candles to mark the initiation of weekly timeframe correction.
That is all the data I could extract from the chart at the moment, will come back with more info and technical aspects as soon as they appear on the chart. Till then best of luck and happy trading :-)
