decklyndubs

decklyndubs

Market seems to be betting on the rate cuts and soft landing again. The narratives are floating around the unemployment numbers as a possible cause for rate cuts, or else rate cuts because why not? Jpow today seemed to hint at hotter inflation, PPI came in super hot today forecasting inflation, but Jpow has been a little less hawkish than his constituents in the...

decklyndubs

BTC looks poised to test 66, possibly to break it and get to 68. Catalyst is the FOMC words "employment data will give us a reason to cut" then jobs data comes in weak. Rally ensues. Last night down trend was broken, I'm playing a consolidation, looking for the vwap this weekend as a swing which I'll try to scalp inside of. Invalidated under 62kish if the trend...

decklyndubs

I thought we'd see the top. I couldn't see any way to print more money. No knobs or dials left. Until I saw multiple reports of Trump planning to oust Jpow, and nullify the separation between the US Federal Reserve and the US Government. That would mean that an elected Trump would control the interest rates. He wanted negative interest rates when he was in, and he...

decklyndubs

Crypto corporations are telling you this is a buy the news event, that's now what I'm playing. Expecting price agreement around 63800 and then a move, very probably to the downside

decklyndubs

Called not lightly, gold and dollar are rising into PCE. Long weekend. I believe for the second time 5260is is ES top locally. I called it after FOMC as well, I share this with a lot of analysis behind it, but I could be disproven by 0dte distortions or general hysteria. I would be very surprised to be disproven here, but we cannot predict. Seeing symptoms of...

decklyndubs

Bullflag was validated out of NYSE close monday into europe with a break from the descending channel after 6 or 7 taps. An uptrend has been forming into NYSE open. There are a few events later in the week that I expect may rattle the market: Consumer confidence today was on expectation GDP/Unemployment - probably has little effect now even if off...

decklyndubs

Overpriced here at 3 cuts. I believe this will fail and am shorting in the channel until proven wrong.

decklyndubs

Total all markets moved on manufacturing and sales data. Bonds, USD, Crypto all getting pummeled. I would expect _at least_ further selling, if not a trend change in the markets. Everyone is greedy, only up forever. I don't want to see anyone get hurt but I have also been laughed at and told I'm wrong a bunch by Pavlov's dog drooling at the sight of any dip....

decklyndubs Updated 

Powell testified today and I think what he said will devalue the dollar and boost everything else - the pushback on Basel III and the willingness to re-evaluate are signalling that banks won't be tightened down too much. To me, that's possibly an inflationary signal as they can create more money.

decklyndubs

I'm not much of one for predicting, but my read is that BTC will consolidate through europe, and break around NYSE open 8:30am ET-9:30am ET, either blasting towards 66k (price discovery) or testing down towards 60k (vwap) or 61.2k (regression).

decklyndubs

NVDA earnings today I suspect will push everything up. Go long on whatever you want until a catalyst comes and destroys the euphoria :P

decklyndubs

I'm short on equity, crypto also looks short. We'll see what happens. I have a short on niike, S&P, and nasdaq (tighter risk,) Crypto also looks short to me.

decklyndubs

I shorted Nasdaq within a few bucks of ATH. monday lifted after closing 7 green weeks in a row, rallying 12%. It could keep going but it's a good RR double top play. I would expect some liquidity to get nabbed possibly before retracement so I kept the risk lower. It sold after I entered so I'm regretting not going much heavier now :P

decklyndubs

A rare and high probability signal, Nikkei has printed a horn here in a bull run. These are historically rare on high tf and generally signal reversal.

decklyndubs

Price on NQ has fixed sideways. PA has generally been strange. Assuming market makers do have control of the price, this consolidation period will build buy and sell side liquidity up. I'd anticipate we might see one more grab at the sell side liquidity and then retreat. If for some reason the money printing continues, then we have a good high tf regression to...

decklyndubs

I found a regression in the NASDAQ price that helps make some sense of the PA. Although the price fell a level yesterday on the bond auction/jpow talk, the trend still appears to be up. I managed to get a long on the breakout, unfortunately it's not a heavy entry.

decklyndubs

I'm collecting funded accounts now that I have consistency but they're all small so my plan is to fund large 400k account challenges with profits out of 10k accounts. I have a 10k swing account I got funded with Oct Friday the 13th - I'm trying to figure out what to do with it and I think that finding a short to hold against risk assets is probably the...

decklyndubs

BTC is one of the most interesting assets as it's so heavily controlled by the perspective of a myriad of bots. While a lot of traders think of trend line as "magic lines" that don't mean anything, there is 0 doubt in my mind that bots follow. the regressions so finding the different perspectives can give good guide lines in combination with liquidity conceps....