Goose96

Goose96 Updated 

The rand managed to stage an impressive recovery last week off the back of the increased risk on investor sentiment which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50-day and 200-day MA support rates. I did not expect the rand to pull the pair onto the upward blue trend line but the month-end flows helped nudge the rand a further than expected. This pair has...

Goose96

Brent crude oil has caught strong support off the 50-day MA of $85.50 pb and the move towards $93.40 pb is now firmly on the cards.

Goose96

The DXY is pulling back ahead of the FOMC statement and the US non-farm payrolls. The key support levels to watch are at 105.11 and 104.77. A failed break below this support range will allow the DXY to climb back to the 2023 high of 107.35. The main drivers behind the DXY pullback are the drop in US 10year yields and the appreciation of the battered Yen.

Goose96

The early morning Asian sessions saw some peculiar moves with the USDJPY pair falling to a low of 154.56. There are rumors of possible FX intervention from BoJ to save their vulnerable Yen. Simultaneously, there was strong buying pressure for the US 10year which is pulling yields down aggressively. The US 10-year yield is showing signs of pulling back following...

Goose96 Updated 

The USDZAR has bounced up aggressively after the major blue support range held its ground at 18.40. The pair climbed a full rand to 19.40 within two weeks after touching the 3-month low of 18.40. The red resistance range has however managed to come to the rand’s rescue which has allowed the pair to slide back below the downward blue trend line. The blue wedge I...

Goose96

Brent crude oil is pulling back as expected despite the elevated tension in the Middle East. A failed break below $85 per barrel will allow black gold to continue its move higher towards $95 per barrel.

Goose96

The dollar traded in a tight range last week and with the US GDP and US PCE data prints scheduled for the week ahead we may see some selling pressure on the over-bought greenback. I’m expecting a pullback towards the 61.8% Fibo level of 104.80 before the dollar bulls find continued momentum.

Goose96

US stock indexes are falling off of their all-time highs which has seen the S&P fall below the 50-day MA support level at $5,125. A failed move back above the 50-day MA at $5,120 will see the index fall lower onto the 38.2% Fibo rate of $4,820.

Goose96

The US treasury market is becoming agitated at the latest Fed stance that rates may most likely remain unchanged through the 2Q2024 and 3Q2024 which has put upward pressure on the US treasury yields. US 10-year yields broke back above 4.50% last week and a continued sell-off will see yields spike back to 5.00% for as long as the current Fed narrative holds it...

Goose96

If the support at 19.10 hold we will se a move higher towards 19.60. A break below the critical support of 18.97 will invalidate the idea.

Goose96 Updated 

A failed break below 19.10 will be an indication of a 5-wave impulse to 19.60. Critical support level remains on 18.97

Goose96 Updated 

The rand has been able to weather the storms of the broad-based stronger dollar thanks to the spike in precious metal prices however the rand did stumble at the back end of last week following the higher-than-expected US CPI print. The critical rates to watch on the USDZAR pair is the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97 and the 200-day MA rate of 18.75. I expect the 200-day...

Goose96 Updated 

With the help of stronger commodity prices, the local unit is weathering the volatility storms ahead of the local elections. The rand has been able to keep the USDZAR pair below the critical rate of 18.97 which has allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 200-day MA support of 18.75, despite the broad-based dollar strength. The pair however remains trapped in...

Goose96

Commodities are awakening from their slumber which is sparking renewed global inflation fears. Due to escalating global tensions, crude oil has surged more than 10% since the start of March which has seen the price per barrel close above $90 per barrel last week. Precious metals along with industrial metals have also benefitted from the rise in oil prices which...

Goose96

Gold is leading the gains in the basket of precious metals and it is only a matter of time before the rest of the metals follow and break higher. The move higher in precious metal prices is immensely rand positive but we will have to see platinum come to the party for sustained rand gains before the local elections. Platinum has broken above the 50-day and 200-day...

Goose96

UK Brent Crude is looking poised to climb higher to test the 2023 high of $95 per barrel. Technically, the commodity is overbought on the RSI indicator so a pullback and test of the blue support range around $87.50 seems like the next likely move. Additionally, the 50-day MA has now crossed above the 200-day MA which is another strong indicator for a sustained...

Goose96

The DXY is maintaining levels above the red trend line which now serves as a neckline support for the index. The cross of the 50-day above the 200-day MA is also bullish for the dollar along with the dampened rate cut expectations. A failed break below the 50-day and 200-day MA’s of 103.8 will allow the DXY to break above the 61.8% Fibo level towards 106. A...

Goose96 Updated 

The SARB will announce their latest repo rate on Thursday and expectations are for the SARB to leave rates unchanged at 8.25%. The SARB will lag the Fed when it comes to rate cuts so South Africans should, on a best case scenario, only expect rate cuts in the back-end of the year. The SARB will not cut rates until the Fed has started cutting rates. The rand...