The_Firewalker

The_Firewalker Updated 

$ON:1D With the earnings forecast providing downside price pressure on the longterm trend, NASDAQ:ON hits the lowest level on its1D RSI in over two years. Needless to say, our trend has been weakened from a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.91 down to a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.88 while losing a little more than 3% of the longterm trend strength in the process. While there are...

The_Firewalker

$ON:1D With the earnings forecast providing downside price pressure on the longterm trend, NASDAQ:ON hits the lowest level on its1D RSI in over two years. Needless to say, our trend has been weakened from a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.91 down to a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.88 while losing a little more than 3% of the longterm trend strength in the process. While there are...

The_Firewalker Updated 

NASDAQ:TSLA $TSLA: 4 HOUR/BAR CHART ON LEFT SIDE (SHORT TERM) SHOWING SINCE OCTOBER ’22 (LAST 3 MONTHS). 2 DAY/BAR CHART ON RIGHT SIDE (LONG TERM) SHOWING SINCE JANUARY, ‘20 (LAST 3 YEARS). $TSLA is down roughly 58% since the start of October 2022 but is still up 299% percent since the beginning of 2020. Evaluating the short-term trend (left side)...

The_Firewalker

VOLUME FLOW INDEX: Both $SPY (broader market) and $SMH (semi-conductor industry) are currently in a neutral trend as measured by their 13 Day EMA envelope (top box). Both are also residing in similar places within their longer term downward trends. It is only when we take a look at volume as measured by the Volume Flow Index (VFI) that we can uncover some...

The_Firewalker

CHART DISPLAYS LAST 30 DAYS Utilities ($XLU) outperforming the broader market as represented by ($SPY) and growth oriented, tech based, sub-sector ($XLK) over the last 30 days. This has a correlation with an increased 'potential' for instances of heightened, near term (2 to 4 weeks) market volatility. During the recent selloff we can see that the 'bids' did...

The_Firewalker

HY= high yield option adjusted spread IG= investment grade option adjusted spread HY-IG Option Adjusted Spread showing significant inverse/negative correlation to the S&P500. When the HY-IG spread (white) rises we see the S&P500 (yellow) fall. The inverse is also true. Spread is currently trending down and SPX is rising which could be indicative of a short term...

The_Firewalker Updated 

MACRO FACTORS: Given the recent CPI print coming in over 9 in conjunction with a labor market that refuses to slacken, there is little reason to believe that a FED pivot is anywhere on the horizon. It can seem perplexing as to why the FED would continue to hike rates when it doesn't seem to be having the intended deflationary effects at the economic level, but...

The_Firewalker

When the spread between High-Yield (HY) debt and Investment Grade (IG) debt contracts or expands, this can be perceived as the market demanding more or less compensation for the risk it perceives to be present in owning the HY debt against the IG corporate debt. (HY-IG) = Risk On/Risk Off market sentiment. Generally speaking HY debt a.k.a. Junk Debt, is...

The_Firewalker Updated 

NVDA, 1D: The linear regression channel on the above chart is illustrative of 4 standard deviations of potential linear price range. 2 standard deviations up, illustrated by the +2SD and 2 standard deviations down as illustrated by the -2SD, along with the linear mean which is labeled LM . NVDA has fully reverted back to its linear mean ( LM ) in the 131 price...

The_Firewalker Updated 

One interesting difference between BTC and ETH is that ETH has snapped its larger downward trend whereas BTC’s larger downward trend is still intact. For that reason we will only display a short term trend for ETH with a color coded, six sigma regression channel and no long term regression trend. The Pearson score of 0.77 on the upward trending regression channel...

The_Firewalker Updated 

SOXX, 2D: Taking a look at the SOXX 2D chart I have drawn out a linear regression channel beginning on November 12, 2021 which was about 7 weeks prior to the ATH print at 557.12 on January 3, 2022. The SOXX proceeded to decline approximately 41% from ATH (557.10) down to its recent low at 326.70 on July 1st, 2022 before rallying almost 30% off the floor to 424.78....

The_Firewalker Updated 

With the SPX rallying over 18% from trough to peak over the last few weeks it looks like the recent upward trend could be under threat. As we can see on the chart above price is threatening to breach the lower third standard deviation (-3SD) off the linear mean at 4058.16. Given the high central tendency of signal to revert toward the linear mean(Pearson’s R^2 =...

The_Firewalker Updated 

The linear regression channel on the above chart is illustrative of 4 standard deviations of potential linear price range. 2 standard deviations up, illustrated by the +2SD and 2 standard deviations down as illustrated by the -2SD along with the linear mean which is labeled LM. NVDA has fully reverted back to its linear mean (LM) in the 131 price region. A...

The_Firewalker

BTC, 1 Day: Filling out the upper end of its linear range and now within the 1SD range off the mean. It’s quite possible we see a dip down to the linear mean (LM) given the 0.89 Pearson score and the strong tendency for price to centralize around the mean @16534.85. 1 Day RSI is approaching oversold but has some downside room to give if further spillage were to...

The_Firewalker

Take a moment to look at the ETH price volume divergence beginning to emerge on the charts. Price is beginning to follow the volume trend lower after rising over the last several weeks. With QT beginning in September along with the ETH merger, I expect volatility. Low liquidity does not a bull market make. FULL TA coming soon!

The_Firewalker

AVAX 1D: Bearish flag brewing as illustrated between the white regression lines. Also note the declining volume against rising price as shown along the bottom of the chart. Strong price architecture is built on a solid volume foundation. That foundation looks to be waning. A downside breach of the 24.17 level, which is (-2 ) standard deviations off the linear...

The_Firewalker

VVIX/VIX, 1DAY: The VVIX / VIX aka "The Vol of Vol", is essentially the historical volatility of the VIX , in relation to its own recent history as represented by the VVIX and over the current volatility of options on the SPX as measured by the VIX. It is a way of measuring current volatility against a second order measure of volatility gauging the "rate of...

The_Firewalker Updated 

MACRO FACTORS: Given the recent CPI print coming in over 9 in conjunction with a labor market that refuses to slacken, there is little reason to believe that a FED pivot is anywhere on the horizon. It can seem perplexing as to why the FED would continue to hike rates when it doesn't seem to be having the intended deflationary effects at the economic level, but...