The_Firewalker

The_Firewalker

$S:1D HH VWAP (highest high): yellow: 22.87 LL VWAP (lowest low): pink: 19.74 Major Fibs: left side Minor Fibs: right side After an extended, multi-year basing period NYSE:S appears ready to breakout to the upside over the remainder of 2024. That being said, the road to a breakout could be a bit rocky in the near term. The stock has suffered a 29% peak to...

The_Firewalker

$HOOD:1D Long-term Fib Retrace from ATH. Short-term Fib Extension from January 2024 lows. Top indicator = Relative Strength Index (RSI) Middle indicator = On Balance Volume (OBV Oscillator) Bottom indicator = Directional Movement Index (DMI) VWAP from highest high (yellow) After coming out of a protracted, multi-year basing (blue), upside price momentum...

The_Firewalker

$BTC:1D I'm using the standard (non-log) chart setting for display purposes. A bounce back to the VWAP off highest high (69.2K) with a possible 'wick ' over the line appears to be highly probable but not necessary. A 'close' over highest high VWAP would not invalidate my thesis but would require a fairly expedient price drop, within a few bars, for thesis...

The_Firewalker Updated 

$BTC:2D The above linear regression channel is illustrative of 2 standard deviations up and down off the linear mean. Price has again failed to breakout above the 2nd standard deviation line. Pearson’s R^2 is remains relatively strong at 0.87, indicating a high tendency for price to centralize around the linear mean (LM) price point of 38k. Bearish price to RSI...

The_Firewalker Updated 

$BTC:1D (1 year look-back period) CRYPTOCAP:BTC currently hovering around its linear mean price point of 45.6K in anticipation of SEC approval or delay tomorrow. Current linear range at standard deviation up and down is roughly 50.9K to 40.5K. Pearson’s R^2 is extremely high at 0.96, implying a high tendency for price to centralize around the linear mean....

The_Firewalker Updated 

$BTC:1D Bearish price to RSI divergence continues to play out with price hanging in the bottom half of the above regression trend. Maintaining the current trend trajectory would require an upward mean reversion to the 46.5K level. OBV remains constructive but seems to be weakening in strength. Sustained price action below the -3SD (39.5K) level would begin to...

The_Firewalker

OPRA:1W Using a 5 year look-back I see recent price structure from the October 2022 bottom as highly impulsive. Historical resistance (downward yellow arrows) has become support (upward yellow arrows). If you're a historical 'price memory' believer, which I am, this will make sense. RSI is flattening out to the downside with slightly higher lows. Stochastic...

The_Firewalker

Back in November of 2022 I wrote about using the HY-IG spread as a potential indicator of 'risk on' vs. 'risk off' sentiment and I will insert that below for readers trying to understand how this spread differential can be utilized. Subsequently I will explain what I currently see emerging on the above chart with the addition of both the RSI and correlation...

The_Firewalker

BE:1W Tradingview Description: Bloom Energy Corp. engages in the manufacture and installation of a solid oxide fuel-cell based power generation platform. Its product, Bloom Energy Server, converts standard low-pressure natural gas or biogas into electricity through an electrochemical process without combustion. The company was founded by K. R. Sridhar, John...

The_Firewalker Updated 

$TSLA:1D Price breaks out of downtrend at +3SD (190.79). Potential ‘gap-fill’ up to 206. Bullish price to RSI divergence. (yellow lines) Pearson’s R^2 is extremely high and I don’t believe this level of trend strength can be maintained at these levels of elevation for a very extended period of time. Significant inverse correlation to relevant index ETF (...

The_Firewalker

$MARA:4H I would expect the increased potential for NASDAQ:MARA to rise as high as the 0.5 retrace (20.75) or AVWAP (21.98) were CRYPTOCAP:BTC price to rise. I would expect the AVWAP (blue) off the recent high to be in confluence with the 0.5 retrace by that point and provide a solid line of resistance. Failure to consolidate above the 0.5 retrace/AVWAP...

The_Firewalker Updated 

$CVNA:1D Signal has almost completed the 4th wave down. I’ll be looking to see whether the 5th wave to the upside takes form. 5th waves are wiley and they fail all the time so it’s possible the local low is not in yet. Price coming off of its lowest point on the RSI YTD and is now coming out of oversold on our 1D RSI. The ‘model moat’ on NYSE:CVNA is very...

The_Firewalker Updated 

$NVTS:1W Small cap semi-conductor company and Seeking Alpha darling NASDAQ:NVTS is showing signs of strength, holding the 0.5 Retrace with a bullish outside bar on the weekly time frame. For NASDAQ:NVTS to breakout from the downward wedge being formed on the weekly chart, I would need to see strong consolidation above the 1.382 (9.12) price level and for an...

The_Firewalker Updated 

$NVDA:1D +27% since June 1, 2023 and well positioned for a pull-back down to the 460 price region (yellow horizontal line). Signal is just coming out of overbought on 1D RSI. Bear tombstone doji followed by bearish outside bar. Volume flows (vfi) remain positively constructive which could blunt the extent of downside price action. Not financial advice.

The_Firewalker Updated 

Update: NASDAQ:ON +177% since the start of 2020. Signal comes back in line at 73.32 and fills the gap at 80.51. I would look at an upward retrace to the 0.5 (81.38) the same as an upside gap fill. Given the depth of oversold on the 1D RSI in combination with an extremely high central tendency illustrated by the Pearson's R^2 of 0.94, a 'dead cat bounce' to the...

The_Firewalker Updated 

XOP Using $XOP as representative of the Oil and Gas Exploration Industry. Pearson's R^2 = 0.95 indicating strong tendency for signal to centralize around its multi-year linear mean (LM, 150.22). Signal currently resides just above the lower third standard deviation (-3) off the linear mean(LM). Statistically speaking it would be tough to hold this...

The_Firewalker Updated 

NASDAQ:NVDA ,1D: Price dipped just below the 50% line and popped back up over the line after coming off the local lows at 403. Given the 'uncertainty' around the level and duration of a 'higher for longer' rate environment along with the market's general preference for 'clarity' over 'uncertainty', it would not be unreasonable to expect the 'increased volatility'...

The_Firewalker Updated 

$SMH:1D Signal sitting just above the -3SD (136.46) and needs to reverse trend in order to maintain the strength of the longterm linear regression trend at 0.91 Pearson R^2. Given the strength of the multi-year trend, an attempt at an upward mean reversion to the 161.17 price region is not unreasonable to expect going into the end of the year. I would expect...