dratzlogic

dratzlogic

This is the moving weighted average of Wednesday's price action over the last 4 weeks that excludes the FOMC meeting results. It looks like we have some good opportunitiy for scalping. 100 to 1028 looks like a chop zone, as well as 1046-1102, 1238-1300. Should be a fun day! This pattern was based on the qqq's.

dratzlogic

There will be two scalp opportunities in the morning based on historical Monday data that falls on FOMC week. Look for tight boxable action from 1115 to 130. Go take a long walk, read a book, call your mom. This action looks untradeable. A couple of scalping opportunities arise after 135 up til 200PM. With a small dip, and a resumed move into the close. Some...

dratzlogic

These are the weekly support channels if the market continues to fall after today's bad news.

dratzlogic

Looks like a cup with handle is forming on the daily chart. Look for a retrace down to at least the 18.47 mark on the red support channel. And then let's look for a lift off!

dratzlogic

A rise until 10:00 with a drop to low at 1030. Then some bumpy action. Look for a gradual rise to close in late afternoon at 2:20 interval.

dratzlogic

Here is the Wednesday Moving Average updated. No FOMC Wednesday days. But honestly, I need to look back and factor out any speeches and minute pubs, because that 2PM candle still looks fishy to me. I'd be watchful of that 2:00 five minute interval, and be super twitchy on my keyboard right at 1:59:59 PM. Happy Trading!!

dratzlogic

Slight shift in intra-day pattern after averaging the last normal Tuesday into the model at 15% (data from 12/6/22). Note that the biggest change is the gradual rise from 235 to close. As opposed to a rise and dip from Tuesday's pattern a few weeks ago (before FOMC). Boxable ranges are still consistent when they appear, and 1145 to 105 should be strictly...

dratzlogic Updated 

This is the QQQ "Normal Mondays" pattern projecting for 12/19/22. It is a moving weighted average of the Monday Intra-day movement, smoothing out FOMC and Holidays for the past year. The pattern is substantially different from FOMC Mondays. Some important notes: 1) On Friday, we saw a pattern break on moving weighted average trend following the FOMC...

dratzlogic Updated 

Normal drop in morning to 9:45 then pivot to a rise, followed by a continued drop. Historical low of the day comes in at 11:00 AM followed by a rise. Look for a brutal chop zone during lunch hours from 12:15 to 1:35, followed by a slow steady rise to close. Parabolic close high likely in last five minute interval. This was calculated by looking at the...

dratzlogic

I don't think I need to write or draw anything here. It's self-explanatory and not great. This is the Thursday pattern following FOMC meetings for the past year with a moving weighted average of 15% on the last three meetings. :O Its a very clear and strong directional pattern. We will see how it holds. As always this is not a guarantee....just a forecast...

dratzlogic

Whew....based on history, you should just check out in the morning and not do anything at all. There is some hobble of price action, but historically the swings are very small, with low opportunity for scalping. Flat, and all within range all day until the Fed Announcement. Which way will the market go at announcement? Who knows. Wait for an initial huge...

dratzlogic

I'm not sure what to make of today's pattern given the huge surge in volume following the CPI data. Still when the market has a huge rise in pre-market, it is usually followed by intra-day action with a steady decline but not retracing to lows. So this pattern may still be valid. Note a steady drop with some good volatility opportunities in the morning, with...

dratzlogic

This is an intraday model using a moving weighted average of historical data. To build this model, I looked at the last 52 Tuesdays and excluded any Tuesday falling on FOMC weeks. I took a straight average of the remaining weeks, save for the last four weeks. Finally, I used a moving weighted average of 15% on each of the last four weeks into the model. This...

dratzlogic

This is a historical weighted Moving Average of QQQ for Mondays. To build the model, I took a straight average of the past 37 Mondays, and then used a moving weighted average of .15 for the past three Mondays. Unfortunately, Mondays have not proven to have much price action. You can look for some volatility in the early hour with highs and lows, but the five...

dratzlogic

This is a 5 minute moving weighted average pattern looking at the Mondays for the past year falling on the weeks of the FOMC meetings. I used a straight average for the first five Mondays, then weighted the last 3 Mondays falling on FOMC at 15% consecutively (7/25/22, 9/19/22, 10/31,22). Historically, the high clocks in at the 9:40-9:45 interval, followed with a...

dratzlogic Updated 

This is a 5 minute moving weighted average model of the Wednesday Intra-Day stock price for QQQ. The average looks at all Wednesdays for the past 12 months, and excludes any Wednesdays that fall on FOMC announcement days (those are a separate pattern). To calculate the initial model, I did a straight average of 11 months, then performed a moving weighted average...

dratzlogic Updated 

Normal Wednesdays are trending with a pump til 10, and then drop to a chop at 12:30. Even if price action is not a match on Wednesday, it is always a good idea to avoid the historical chop. I will grade and score the model at the end of the day Wednesday. Tomorrow should be very interesting with CPI data being published. Happy Trading!

dratzlogic

Thursday's model. I won't be lectured by someone who has no quantitative background in forecasting, or ridicules the forecasting methodologies of the top Forbes 500 companies I have consulted. Models are tested daily. The history is the baseline to feed the model and project going forward. I don't have the time or energy to backtest each model I build and...