What is the right price for ALICE? Buy, hold, or sell?
Disclamer:
I'm not advising anyone anything. I'm only sharing my thoughts.
Briefly:
Sell.
Buy below $10, possibly below $1.
Will it be below 10 cents? I don't believe so now, but I don't exclude it anymore.
Why do I think so?
My opinion on ALICE:
- The farm game is great.
- A farm with a good market is great
- NFT is cool.
- The team behind the project is promising
Before trades.
I analyzed the charts of all the projects that started on launchpool except for fun tokens.
On the first day, the price shoots skyward.
Price stabilizes, taking three to ten times the starting price and rises from there
In a few cases, the price falls below the starting price. An example is
REEFUSDT
, which reached a high of 3000% on the first day (ALICE 6000%). However, correction in the majority of projects takes place within the first minutes Observation in the first minutes of trading:
The price held at $10 for a while. That is 1000%. Presumably there was a massive sale at this price. I can't say for sure, TV doesn't have that data.
Is ALICE falling because of falling bitcoin?
Yes. But even without bitcoin, ALICE is falling right now. You can see it best on the ALICE/BTC chart.
ALICE's buying level?
That's the toughest question.
I think the price will be below $10. It could be below $1. Could be below the starting price.
The price today is held on faith in the description of a project with a good team.
One that won't have many players for about a year. So the team has to create demand for ALICE or else it will not be bought and it will start to fall.
What will happen to ALICE when there are a few more similar projects inspired by the ALICE launch? Warning, we are selling or buying a coin that has demand in the future, and a lot can happen before that.
I'm waiting for the falling knives on the chart. I will be buying on tech analysis. Most likely in multiple runs. And not a large amount. With a plan for HODL.
Right now the price is not falling sharply. It's hard to say anything right now. I think there are several bull traps waiting for us.
And at the end - what were the sellers thinking about the price at the start of trading?
Let's take another look at the first few minutes of trading. When the price lingered at $10. My guess is that the sellers, like me, analyzed the start of sales and put a price that they think is grossly overpriced from the bottom line. Assuming they bid at five times the estimated final price, we get $2. If ten, one.
Very interesting. Very happy to have sold at a super high price. Very anxious to get in at a normal price in the long run.
Comment:
The value is rising and has reached almost $20!
On 3/17/21, a reader asked what he should do with his coins, which he bought at $24?
I answered him about half an hour later (about 7 PM UTC+0). Unfortunately the comment is still in moderation.
The response was about the following:
ALICE has not fallen to the $10 area, we can assume the bottom is around $14 today. If I were in a position, I wouldn't sell.
Even if the bottom turns out to be around 10, I wouldn't sell.
If the bottom turns out to be around $3, then that's a problem. So you have to watch the price for both USDT and BTC closely.
Rising bitcoin raises the value of most coins. A bad signal would be a fall in the face of a rising bitcoin.
On 3/17/21, a reader asked what he should do with his coins, which he bought at $24?
I answered him about half an hour later (about 7 PM UTC+0). Unfortunately the comment is still in moderation.
The response was about the following:
ALICE has not fallen to the $10 area, we can assume the bottom is around $14 today. If I were in a position, I wouldn't sell.
Even if the bottom turns out to be around 10, I wouldn't sell.
If the bottom turns out to be around $3, then that's a problem. So you have to watch the price for both USDT and BTC closely.
Rising bitcoin raises the value of most coins. A bad signal would be a fall in the face of a rising bitcoin.
Comment:
At about 10PM UTC+0 I entered ALICE at just above $15 with a Stop-Loss of 13.98.
Why this figure?
Yesterday's swing low was at 14.08.
$14 would be a little extra resistance and only an extra 10 cents to it.
The absolute low on the coin is somewhere around $13 (can be found on binance, on the second candle of the 15-minute trading chart).
My SL as a percentage was about 7 percent. That's not even a lot for such a strategy.
The coin went up to about 15.50 and started falling amidst a very rising bitcoin. I made the decision to exit after losing a couple of cents relative to my purchase.
At midnight UTC-0 the coin retested the bottom around $14. 14.08 was not breached, from there the rise began and then reversa .
Good if the reasons for run was not fundamental, but it was the bears that gave up.
A resistance retest around 15.50 is possible today, after that around 14. If 14 will be broken through, the next resistance will be somewhere near 13. And then the fun part will begin.
At the moment I don't believe the price will go much below 15.60.
Would I buy around 15 today if a coin dropped there? No decision yet.
On March 19, Friday 08:00 UTC you can already stake your $ALICE in BakerySwap to earn NFTs or more $ALICE!
This news appeared yesterday around 3 PM UTC. I wouldn't say that it has had any tangible effect on the price so far. I wonder what will happen tomorrow.
Why this figure?
Yesterday's swing low was at 14.08.
$14 would be a little extra resistance and only an extra 10 cents to it.
The absolute low on the coin is somewhere around $13 (can be found on binance, on the second candle of the 15-minute trading chart).
My SL as a percentage was about 7 percent. That's not even a lot for such a strategy.
The coin went up to about 15.50 and started falling amidst a very rising bitcoin. I made the decision to exit after losing a couple of cents relative to my purchase.
At midnight UTC-0 the coin retested the bottom around $14. 14.08 was not breached, from there the rise began and then reversa .
Good if the reasons for run was not fundamental, but it was the bears that gave up.
A resistance retest around 15.50 is possible today, after that around 14. If 14 will be broken through, the next resistance will be somewhere near 13. And then the fun part will begin.
At the moment I don't believe the price will go much below 15.60.
Would I buy around 15 today if a coin dropped there? No decision yet.
On March 19, Friday 08:00 UTC you can already stake your $ALICE in BakerySwap to earn NFTs or more $ALICE!
This news appeared yesterday around 3 PM UTC. I wouldn't say that it has had any tangible effect on the price so far. I wonder what will happen tomorrow.
Comment:
Everything is going according to plan. We are watching the price and the project itself.
Today I don't even want to talk about the right price. I would talk about the right timing. ALICE needs demand. When it appears, then the price will begin to form.
Sometime in the summer, the project will open the first version for a small number of players.
Today I don't even want to talk about the right price. I would talk about the right timing. ALICE needs demand. When it appears, then the price will begin to form.
Sometime in the summer, the project will open the first version for a small number of players.
At the 4-hour chart support is formed. At the time of writing the analysis there is a retest of support.
BINANCE:ALICEUSDT .
Daily and 4hour charts are in a bearish trend at the time of writing.
There is a retest of support on the hourly chart. At the time of writing, a hammer canlde is forming, which gives hope for growth in value. However, I wouldn't state that the coin has found the bottom and will only grow from here. It needs a few more confirmations. For starters, not to go below 15.86. To rise above 18.84. After some time to go down on the retest. Not to go below 15.86, ideally forming a hammer candle above.
Could this be a turning point? Anything is possible. The only thing that worries me in the whole short history of the coin is the giant rise on the first day. Not fivefold. Not tenfold. Not even a hundred times. That's what worries me. That's why you shouldn't compare the coin to DEGOUDST - DEGO rose about twice as much on launch day. That's not even a lot.
Is it safe to buy the coin now? If I were to do it, it would be with SL under 15.50, watching and tweaking SL. But I'm not willing to do that.
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