14 May 2018 Week - Short AUDUSD

Technical Observations:
- Daily -
1.) Price breakout of weekly trendline resistance in previous weeks
2.) In 7 May 2018 week, price was bullish after reacting to a bullish divergence
3.) Currently, the price is testing the 20MA resistance near the weekly trendline resistance

- 4 hour -
1.) 10/20 MA indicator is bullish
2.) A bearish engulfing pattern formed with a bearish divergence near the weekly trendline resistance

Market Sentiment Indicators:
- AUD COT Published on 8 May 2018-

• Net non commercial changes: -11,094 or -16% {Long 44% Short 56%; Previous week: Long 48% Short 52%} -> Speculating more bearishness
  
• Commercial hedging changes: +12,570 or +20% {Long 65% Short 35%; Previous week: Long 61% Short 39%} -> Increase hedging as anticipating drop in price
  

* Sentiment is bearish

Conclusion and action plan:
1.) With the recent breakout of weekly trendline and daily bullish divergence , price is expected to move up to retest resistance
2.) However, i would be looking to short this pair because of the H4 bearish divergence and bearish market sentiment
3.) To short, i will look out for any bearish price action near the red triangle drawn in the H4 chart

# Orange dotted line - Weekly trendline