BTC and ETH showing hidden bearish divergence. Extremely Bearish
We have several points of confluence for a short from here.
1. BTC, the crypto market leader, has hit a long-term resistance trendline. (Note that ETH has not hit the same trendline on its own chart, but I have other reasons to believe ETH will still drop heavily here from the 1750s price point.)
2. BTC is showing signs of a large hidden bearish divergence on all big time frames (4h, 2h, 1h) between the last major highs that touched the trendlines.
3. If we zoom into BTC and ETH's micro timeframes (15min, 5min, 1min) on their most recent cup & handle (specifically the handle 26500-26600 BTC and 1730-1750 ETH) formation, there were:
- 3a. Very few divergences on the previous level before this rise
- 3b. Many divergences on this recent rise
- 3c. The rising candles to the last level were very fast and few (low volume), signifying the whales' desires to pump the price as high as they can without being sold into, so that they can sell themselves.
4. This high is timed almost exactly with the general market (SPY). And SPY and everything else showing bearish signals as well in my opinion.
I have sold almost everything here, waiting for either 1. a large flash crash and/or 2. a lengthy time of selling. I would not catch any falling knives here, because we're at risk of breaking through any levels of support.
1. BTC, the crypto market leader, has hit a long-term resistance trendline. (Note that ETH has not hit the same trendline on its own chart, but I have other reasons to believe ETH will still drop heavily here from the 1750s price point.)
2. BTC is showing signs of a large hidden bearish divergence on all big time frames (4h, 2h, 1h) between the last major highs that touched the trendlines.
3. If we zoom into BTC and ETH's micro timeframes (15min, 5min, 1min) on their most recent cup & handle (specifically the handle 26500-26600 BTC and 1730-1750 ETH) formation, there were:
- 3a. Very few divergences on the previous level before this rise
- 3b. Many divergences on this recent rise
- 3c. The rising candles to the last level were very fast and few (low volume), signifying the whales' desires to pump the price as high as they can without being sold into, so that they can sell themselves.
4. This high is timed almost exactly with the general market (SPY). And SPY and everything else showing bearish signals as well in my opinion.
I have sold almost everything here, waiting for either 1. a large flash crash and/or 2. a lengthy time of selling. I would not catch any falling knives here, because we're at risk of breaking through any levels of support.
Comment:
We're reaching the end of the Cup & Handle I think. Zooming in to the minutes time frames, we're seeing a mini triple top. Volume is increasing on the buys, but not really that much. Only buying up to the resistance, which in my opinion they are just liquidity hunting by creating false breakout signals.
Comment:
BTC consolidating after failed triple top, reduction in volatility. Signs of distribution and selling. We're looking for a few things that confirms this fall:
1. Maintained low volatility
2. Reduction in volume matched with slow price drops.
3. Consecutive red candles matching with increase in volume.
4. Price spikes upward (quick burst of green candles) matched with inequivalent low volume.
5. Lower highs.
6. Lower lows.
First we'll see the price lose momentum falling off like a small sloping hill matched with increasing volume, and then the waterfall. Do NOT catch this falling knife if it happens.
1. Maintained low volatility
2. Reduction in volume matched with slow price drops.
3. Consecutive red candles matching with increase in volume.
4. Price spikes upward (quick burst of green candles) matched with inequivalent low volume.
5. Lower highs.
6. Lower lows.
First we'll see the price lose momentum falling off like a small sloping hill matched with increasing volume, and then the waterfall. Do NOT catch this falling knife if it happens.
Comment:
On the micro time frames, BTC made a quad top, then broke through momentarily, before fading back down. It didn't happen quite like I said, at least not yet anyway. My predictions of points 1-6 from above are still in play right now until we drop below 26170 in a flash.
But so far, my main point still stands, which is we will NOT break through resistance of 26700s.
Catching falling knife here you'll probably lose more money trading because of the fees. These movements are not quite large percents yet, and I don't expect any recovery, even big ones, to be more than a couple percent, which has to be preceded by similar few percent drops first.
Again, very risky to catch falling knives right now. I would stay out and wait a week or two, unless you are a pro trader and have 0 fee trading.
But so far, my main point still stands, which is we will NOT break through resistance of 26700s.
Catching falling knife here you'll probably lose more money trading because of the fees. These movements are not quite large percents yet, and I don't expect any recovery, even big ones, to be more than a couple percent, which has to be preceded by similar few percent drops first.
Again, very risky to catch falling knives right now. I would stay out and wait a week or two, unless you are a pro trader and have 0 fee trading.
Comment:
Right now, looking for consolidation near the lows. Moving sideways, then slow slippage, before next major drop to next support.
Comment:
Consolidating for about an hour as I predicted, within a very tight window, on very low volume. Points 1-6 from above starts here.
Comment:
ETH just dipped on an increase in volume on 1min, which was preceded by low volume and tight range. Points 1-3 from above.
BTC didn't have the same volume pump and dip, so exhibiting Points 1-2 right now.
BTC didn't have the same volume pump and dip, so exhibiting Points 1-2 right now.
Comment:
BTC and ETH making price jumps on 1min candles on lower volume than it took to make the fall. Point 4.
Comment:
1-5min timescales showing lower lows and lower highs, within a tight range (Points 5 and 6. All 6 points have happened to some degree now, and we have slipped lower.
I perhaps expect to see this happen fractally on a larger time scale, within a larger range, but still within relatively tight channel. From here, it should be sideways and down, going below 26000 for BTC by or before end of next week, 6/25.
I perhaps expect to see this happen fractally on a larger time scale, within a larger range, but still within relatively tight channel. From here, it should be sideways and down, going below 26000 for BTC by or before end of next week, 6/25.
Comment:
So this was quite an unexpected breakout for BTC above the previous high. I don't know, I still think it looks extremely fake. Also note that ETH didn't really jump as high, so that tells me the plans are still to dump some time. Still watching.
Comment:
Ok, I am WRONG. BTC movement invalidated my thesis. The hidden bearish divergence stands, but they do appear during heavy reversals. I confirm that my idea was invalidated.
Also, you guys need to get altcoins. Right now. Look at my other latest idea in my profile.
Also, you guys need to get altcoins. Right now. Look at my other latest idea in my profile.
Comment:
Update: The crash is BACK ON THE MENU. BTC will NOT hit $34k. It's going to go back to $19k and below within the next 3 months.
