In this idea, I will try to give an alternate perspective on the BTC/USD performance by the theory of Elliot wave technique analysis.
I will discuss about 2 main rules of Elliot Wave Theory (EWT), the first is triangles and the second is the alternation rule:
1)Triangles appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles contain five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled a-b-c-d-e. A triangle is delineated by connecting the termination points of waves a and c, and b and d. Wave e can undershoot or overshoot the a-c line, which is a pretty common move.
triangles nearly always occur in positions prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree or in other words, as wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, or the final wave X in a double or triple zig-zag or combination.
2) Alternation Within Impulses, in a very simple word alternation, is If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice
versa. so if wave two retraced beyond 61.8 fib level, we can expect wave four to retraced between 50.0 - 38.2 fib levels.
Now you can have a look at the attached chart, you can see that my analysis suggests a variation that we are now at the 4th wave, if you will measure the reactionary move to move one, you will find out it retraced to 78.6 fib level, which by the alternation rule is a deep correction, and if we had a steep correction in wave two we can expect wave four will bounce at the 38.2 - 50.0 fib levels.
considering the overshoot or undershoot of the triangle structure (see triangles explanation in paragraph 1), which not yet happened, we can expect that move will occur the time the prices will reach to the 'E' move at the triangle and snap the 50.0% fib level by reaching 8500$ price and go up again to break the triangle structure to the upper side of it with the last (5th wave) move in the 12345 impulse move.
long story short - we are one and a half move short from our destination to complete the impulse wave, the prices could drop up to 8000-8500$ just to go up again to at least the previous pik on last Jun.
Please let me know if any question comes up regarding my analysis, also I'll love to explain on other rules of EWT by demandish curiosity,
also please see how this idea correlates with my other idea "The Exhaustion Of Bitcoin" which relates with WXY counting by EWT as well!
yours with love,
Josque!
I will discuss about 2 main rules of Elliot Wave Theory (EWT), the first is triangles and the second is the alternation rule:
1)Triangles appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles contain five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled a-b-c-d-e. A triangle is delineated by connecting the termination points of waves a and c, and b and d. Wave e can undershoot or overshoot the a-c line, which is a pretty common move.
triangles nearly always occur in positions prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree or in other words, as wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, or the final wave X in a double or triple zig-zag or combination.
2) Alternation Within Impulses, in a very simple word alternation, is If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice
versa. so if wave two retraced beyond 61.8 fib level, we can expect wave four to retraced between 50.0 - 38.2 fib levels.
Now you can have a look at the attached chart, you can see that my analysis suggests a variation that we are now at the 4th wave, if you will measure the reactionary move to move one, you will find out it retraced to 78.6 fib level, which by the alternation rule is a deep correction, and if we had a steep correction in wave two we can expect wave four will bounce at the 38.2 - 50.0 fib levels.
considering the overshoot or undershoot of the triangle structure (see triangles explanation in paragraph 1), which not yet happened, we can expect that move will occur the time the prices will reach to the 'E' move at the triangle and snap the 50.0% fib level by reaching 8500$ price and go up again to break the triangle structure to the upper side of it with the last (5th wave) move in the 12345 impulse move.
long story short - we are one and a half move short from our destination to complete the impulse wave, the prices could drop up to 8000-8500$ just to go up again to at least the previous pik on last Jun.
Please let me know if any question comes up regarding my analysis, also I'll love to explain on other rules of EWT by demandish curiosity,
also please see how this idea correlates with my other idea "The Exhaustion Of Bitcoin" which relates with WXY counting by EWT as well!
yours with love,
Josque!
