Bitcoin: 36,250 Break To 37K Area?

Bitcoin has generated a new swing trade long signal on the daily time frame upon the break of the 26,250 candle high (couple of days ago). This is a momentum continuation pattern and it can lead to a test of the next resistance area around 37K over the coming week. This context is ideal for day trades or swing trades only, these are far fro ideal levels for new investing.

In my previous article I described a test of the 33K resistance followed by a potential pull back. This scenario never came to be and Bitcoin surged through the resistance area, pushing into the 35K resistance. The key takeaway here is this: we can come up with all the scenarios we want and assign probabilities to them, until price confirms the scenario, it carries little weight. In other words, markets are RANDOM and it is ineffective to navigate them successfully with "opinions".

There has not been one confirmed short setup (based on my system) since this rally has begun. There have been 3 long setups on the daily time frame with the third one confirming at the break of 26,250. Having a well defined system for decision making in such an environment cannot be emphasized enough. This is what keeps emotions in check and helps to minimize the nonsense and noise coming from the internet.

The 37K resistance area dates back to 2021 where it served as an important support area. Old support has a tendency to become new resistance which is a function of human behavior.
This is the price area to measure profit potential from, and place take profit orders for swing trades, etc. IF price FAILS to reach this area and instead produces a conflicting signal, adjustments have to be made as soon as possible to risk/reward expectations (like moving stop to break even).

What about rates? And why is Bitcoin rallying while stock market is pushing lows? Markets can be irrational for any reason. I don't waste time trying to figure out why, instead I adjust my expectations and orders to what the markets wants to do, NOT what I "think".

With that being said, my "opinion" (which I do not trade on) is still that interest rates are far from favorable in terms of sustaining a bull market. Just like we had the AI hype in the stock market throughout the summer which went against a rising rate environment. I believe the move in Bitcoin is being engineered in a similar way, except that there is even less regulation.

While I will not trade on such an opinion, I do consider this when it comes to profit expectations and probabilities. Until rates and the Federal Reserve start making some changes, I will NOT be optimistic about any type of asset bubble any time soon. Overly dramatic moves like we have seen are temporary in this environment.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.