Hello friends,
I am still waiting for the final correction before I close my shorts and decide if I will go long. My thoughts are written below explaining my ideas about the possibility of keeping my shorts intact and casting away any ideas about long positions.
There is a possibility as indicated on this chart that BTC will make a proper ABC correction for wave 3 at 7173.xx then head down towards the final wave for wave 5 at a 50% to 61.8% retrace, from there we should see the next target at 8973 as the finality for the bigger timeframe as indicated in red denoted as an "ABC" for wave 4. Here at this level, this means that A=C in fib size and this makes sense according to what was support now has turned to resistance. It is doubtful to see BTC go higher because we have strong resistance up in this area at 9169.xx and that the target 8973 is a safe bet for pulling profits before the whipsaws begin.
As wave 4 finishes, I can see the 5th wave down as being truncated because the extended 3rd wave will require balance according to Elliot Wave Theories. Yes, it is possible to go lower but I am expecting a bullish double bottom before the halving takes place which therefore fits with every other bullish breakout according to BTC's halving history.
Final thoughts are that according to the CFTC COT reports "Large Speculative Traders" I am having doubts about a proper ABC correction for wave 3 at 7133 and expect BTC to reach the 5th wave at 6659 to 6469. As this report has proven that there has been a large increase in shorts and these positions are being held at 87.9% interest vs the longs being at 60%. The increase of longs is 50% less of those who are shorting BTC at the moment. I have provided an image link here " https://i.imgur.com/ZMOWAHD.png " of the latest reports, you decide for yourself where you think BTC is going.
For me, looking at the reports rises doubt in me for BTC to even try to test the resistance level let alone reach the target as indicated at 8973. The question is why did I bother posting this? The answer is, according to TA, this chart is properly laid out according to the wave structures and fib retracement tools I have used. However, behind the scenes, hedge funds are painting a different picture. If the shorts prove right, then this chart will have to be gone over to find out what kind of complex correction we have just experienced. If the shorts do not hold (doubtful) then this chart is valid.
If the shorts do hold then the question is, where to now? I still expect a double bottom and a bullish breakout before the halving, as I previously mentioned. The idea is sitting at the thought that speculators now have enough liquidity to bring the price down and create a better buy situation for their next long and IMO that is looking like a double bottom.
Trade Safe
Cheers!
I am still waiting for the final correction before I close my shorts and decide if I will go long. My thoughts are written below explaining my ideas about the possibility of keeping my shorts intact and casting away any ideas about long positions.
There is a possibility as indicated on this chart that BTC will make a proper ABC correction for wave 3 at 7173.xx then head down towards the final wave for wave 5 at a 50% to 61.8% retrace, from there we should see the next target at 8973 as the finality for the bigger timeframe as indicated in red denoted as an "ABC" for wave 4. Here at this level, this means that A=C in fib size and this makes sense according to what was support now has turned to resistance. It is doubtful to see BTC go higher because we have strong resistance up in this area at 9169.xx and that the target 8973 is a safe bet for pulling profits before the whipsaws begin.
As wave 4 finishes, I can see the 5th wave down as being truncated because the extended 3rd wave will require balance according to Elliot Wave Theories. Yes, it is possible to go lower but I am expecting a bullish double bottom before the halving takes place which therefore fits with every other bullish breakout according to BTC's halving history.
Final thoughts are that according to the CFTC COT reports "Large Speculative Traders" I am having doubts about a proper ABC correction for wave 3 at 7133 and expect BTC to reach the 5th wave at 6659 to 6469. As this report has proven that there has been a large increase in shorts and these positions are being held at 87.9% interest vs the longs being at 60%. The increase of longs is 50% less of those who are shorting BTC at the moment. I have provided an image link here " https://i.imgur.com/ZMOWAHD.png " of the latest reports, you decide for yourself where you think BTC is going.
For me, looking at the reports rises doubt in me for BTC to even try to test the resistance level let alone reach the target as indicated at 8973. The question is why did I bother posting this? The answer is, according to TA, this chart is properly laid out according to the wave structures and fib retracement tools I have used. However, behind the scenes, hedge funds are painting a different picture. If the shorts prove right, then this chart will have to be gone over to find out what kind of complex correction we have just experienced. If the shorts do not hold (doubtful) then this chart is valid.
If the shorts do hold then the question is, where to now? I still expect a double bottom and a bullish breakout before the halving, as I previously mentioned. The idea is sitting at the thought that speculators now have enough liquidity to bring the price down and create a better buy situation for their next long and IMO that is looking like a double bottom.
Trade Safe
Cheers!
Comment:
Something I am seeing, here is an alternative count that has created a Head and shoulders pattern. This does support the large speculator's short positions.
Comment:
If you are looking to get into this trade, I would wait to see for a change of trend. Shorting or longing in the middle of this is hard on your pocketbook not to mention the emotions as well.
Comment:
I should have added that this wave could hit the 78.6% retrace. Oh well, next time I will add that.
Comment:
B.E.A.utiful. I love it when it all comes together.
Comment:
Possible reversal with a 4H Divergence.
Trade active:
2 of the targets bang on, lets see if we get the next target.
