#202420 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btc
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
current market cycle: Very weak bear trend - if bulls trade it above 67400, it’s a trading range
key levels: 56000 - 65000
comment: My white circle played out exactly as I thought it would and bulls having a bad time trading above the daily 20ema which is bearish. Bulls will probably soon give up trying to keep this above 60000 and we will slice through to 50000.
bull case: Bulls still trying but unless they can clearly trade strong above the daily ema with follow through, best they can hope for is to keep the market above 60000.
bear case: Had to redraw the bear channel but bears need to get follow through below 60000 for bulls to give up.
I think many stops will be around 59000 and we will just crash down to 50000 then.
short term: Bearish if we stay below 65000 for target 50000 - invalid above 67000. I will not buy this, only looking to short. —unchanged
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
Update: Adjusted bear channel
current market cycle: Very weak bear trend - if bulls trade it above 67400, it’s a trading range
key levels: 56000 - 65000
comment: My white circle played out exactly as I thought it would and bulls having a bad time trading above the daily 20ema which is bearish. Bulls will probably soon give up trying to keep this above 60000 and we will slice through to 50000.
bull case: Bulls still trying but unless they can clearly trade strong above the daily ema with follow through, best they can hope for is to keep the market above 60000.
bear case: Had to redraw the bear channel but bears need to get follow through below 60000 for bulls to give up.
I think many stops will be around 59000 and we will just crash down to 50000 then.
short term: Bearish if we stay below 65000 for target 50000 - invalid above 67000. I will not buy this, only looking to short. —unchanged
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
Update: Adjusted bear channel