Hi All,
Although its too early to say, one must envision what is likely to play out and trade accordingly, buying the dips and selling at the current resistances.
My main area's of interest are 3800, 4200, 4500, 4800, 5000, 5500 and 6000
Along these points of interest, I'll be watching trends and so on in the small time frames along with what the SPx500 and Gold is doing.
If the SPx500 and Gold are not dropping, in certain time frames, those will be the opportunities I would think that BTC or ALTs will also make moves to the upside.
Observations:
> From the weekly chart, historically we can see both the 200 EMA and the 300 EMA played a role.
> From other charts, big volume spikes also helped establish pivot points in the trend. Big selloffs or buys.
> In 2015, it seems we had capitulation and we know of the previous 2018, reflected in both RSI levels.
In 2015, the bottom accumulation range was between the 100 and 200 EMA for about 245 days;
In 2018, the bottom accumulation range was between the 200 and 300 EMA for about 126 days;
> In a recent article Novogratz said it will take about 12 to 18 months to restore confidence to where it was before the 9K drop
> I have the Gaussian Channel to help make some observations
> I have 12 MONTHLY charts the help establish major lines: Noted the price reached the bottom of the next candle
> I have the MONTHLY charts for a closer look
Thoughts:
> Weekly 300 EMA will be tested 2 or 3 times during this ranging price movement
> I am expecting a ranging price action in this orange box
> Major markets look bad and have some more to go down...but slower. This might be how BTC holds onto this ORANGE box range.
> The 12 MONTHLY charts show that there is a wick on the bottom of each candle and I'm assuming the 3800 is the end of that, for now and potentially the wick hits 4100 based on the monthly candle sticks. Refer to chart below.
> Hence I'm imagining the bottom is this area. The next level up, I had 4200 and 4500 range.
> If you look at my fib. levels, this area has confluence with the 0.786 and 0.886 macro retracement fib levels, for now, this is the range price area.
> With regards to the Gaussian channel, we can observe a few times we were below it and the formation it took. Is it likely to do it again, I think so.
Trading method:
> I'm not going to assume anything, just watch the charts and buy where it makes sense, key levels and put my stop limits underneath support lines as well as cash in a % based on the micro level resistance.
Each day is a new assessment.
> Not planning to hold any coins that pass my establish lines, risk lines ...if I miss out, so be it for we are going to be here for a long time
> After a few weeks, we should be able to see how the WEEKLY RSI is doing as well as the formation its taking place. Maybe then, make a few key decisions.
*****************************************************************************
I have taken note as to what Novograz said recently:
"The biggest mistake that people make is that, when a market breaks, everyone thinks it’s time to get back in way too early. Shit always gets worse than you think it’s going to,” Novogratz said, before adding:
“I sometimes make the mistake, but I tell myself ‘hey, when you want to buy something, go on a long walk, then come back a week later and look at it,’ and it’s usually worse off. Once they start going bad, they kind of stay bad for a while.”
*****************************************************************************
MICRO Level chart, some formations and how I will play them for the short term
MACRO charts
Monthly and 12 Monthly candle sticks
Chart with the Gaussian channel
4 Day chart
Please give me a tick or a like for your appreciation.
Maybe some of this will give you ideas on how to look at the bigger picture.
Regards,
S.Sari
Although its too early to say, one must envision what is likely to play out and trade accordingly, buying the dips and selling at the current resistances.
My main area's of interest are 3800, 4200, 4500, 4800, 5000, 5500 and 6000
Along these points of interest, I'll be watching trends and so on in the small time frames along with what the SPx500 and Gold is doing.
If the SPx500 and Gold are not dropping, in certain time frames, those will be the opportunities I would think that BTC or ALTs will also make moves to the upside.
Observations:
> From the weekly chart, historically we can see both the 200 EMA and the 300 EMA played a role.
> From other charts, big volume spikes also helped establish pivot points in the trend. Big selloffs or buys.
> In 2015, it seems we had capitulation and we know of the previous 2018, reflected in both RSI levels.
In 2015, the bottom accumulation range was between the 100 and 200 EMA for about 245 days;
In 2018, the bottom accumulation range was between the 200 and 300 EMA for about 126 days;
> In a recent article Novogratz said it will take about 12 to 18 months to restore confidence to where it was before the 9K drop
> I have the Gaussian Channel to help make some observations
> I have 12 MONTHLY charts the help establish major lines: Noted the price reached the bottom of the next candle
> I have the MONTHLY charts for a closer look
Thoughts:
> Weekly 300 EMA will be tested 2 or 3 times during this ranging price movement
> I am expecting a ranging price action in this orange box
> Major markets look bad and have some more to go down...but slower. This might be how BTC holds onto this ORANGE box range.
> The 12 MONTHLY charts show that there is a wick on the bottom of each candle and I'm assuming the 3800 is the end of that, for now and potentially the wick hits 4100 based on the monthly candle sticks. Refer to chart below.
> Hence I'm imagining the bottom is this area. The next level up, I had 4200 and 4500 range.
> If you look at my fib. levels, this area has confluence with the 0.786 and 0.886 macro retracement fib levels, for now, this is the range price area.
> With regards to the Gaussian channel, we can observe a few times we were below it and the formation it took. Is it likely to do it again, I think so.
Trading method:
> I'm not going to assume anything, just watch the charts and buy where it makes sense, key levels and put my stop limits underneath support lines as well as cash in a % based on the micro level resistance.
Each day is a new assessment.
> Not planning to hold any coins that pass my establish lines, risk lines ...if I miss out, so be it for we are going to be here for a long time
> After a few weeks, we should be able to see how the WEEKLY RSI is doing as well as the formation its taking place. Maybe then, make a few key decisions.
*****************************************************************************
I have taken note as to what Novograz said recently:
"The biggest mistake that people make is that, when a market breaks, everyone thinks it’s time to get back in way too early. Shit always gets worse than you think it’s going to,” Novogratz said, before adding:
“I sometimes make the mistake, but I tell myself ‘hey, when you want to buy something, go on a long walk, then come back a week later and look at it,’ and it’s usually worse off. Once they start going bad, they kind of stay bad for a while.”
*****************************************************************************
MICRO Level chart, some formations and how I will play them for the short term
MACRO charts
Please give me a tick or a like for your appreciation.
Maybe some of this will give you ideas on how to look at the bigger picture.
Regards,
S.Sari
Comment:
Micro level, not looking good, a continuation pattern
Comment:
Key levels of interest for me now, to short, 4800 or 4200.
Comment:
Black swan event
The price crash was the biggest one day fall in Bitcoin’s history in dollar terms and saw it breach the 200-week moving average. In a single hour, A$820 billion worth of long positions were liquidated on BitMEX and the exchange went offline, sparking many conspiracy theories, BitMEX claims a botnet attack may be involved. Bitcoin futures on OKEx, BitMEX, Huobi and Binance topped $50.8 billion in 24 hours and Coinbase saw record volumes this week. In a much-shared post on Crypto Twitter, Wall Street veteran Caitlin Long suggests the coronavirus financial crisis is actually the credit system dying, and suggested that intraday swings of 50% in traditional markets could be coming.
The price crash was the biggest one day fall in Bitcoin’s history in dollar terms and saw it breach the 200-week moving average. In a single hour, A$820 billion worth of long positions were liquidated on BitMEX and the exchange went offline, sparking many conspiracy theories, BitMEX claims a botnet attack may be involved. Bitcoin futures on OKEx, BitMEX, Huobi and Binance topped $50.8 billion in 24 hours and Coinbase saw record volumes this week. In a much-shared post on Crypto Twitter, Wall Street veteran Caitlin Long suggests the coronavirus financial crisis is actually the credit system dying, and suggested that intraday swings of 50% in traditional markets could be coming.
Comment:
BTC Dominance chart is of no use
www.tradingview.com/chart/TCoRUgCn/
www.tradingview.com/chart/TCoRUgCn/
Comment:
Comment:
target 5600 to 6100
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Comment:
Some MACRO concepts
Comment:
Another perspective
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Comment:
Another macro perspective
Discord: TradeToProspa
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
