Good day friends, I sure hope your all having a good day. I wanted to update some retrace options based on a couple of differing factors. IF, key word if, $42K is the LOW of this impulse, I still see a retrace back to the .618-.786 Fib and a back test to our broken trend line. However, if we have one more leg lower to go (in the shorter time frame), my thinking is that we would revisit our last significant low of $39.8K, and possibly even a touch lower. This assumption is based on a 5 wave down count of a Major 1 wave that initiates a Bear market. In that scenario the retrace would be the same magnitude, but the top target would be obviously lower than option 1. Another major factor in making these retrace assumptions, is that the THE TOP is truly in. It is my belief that it is, based on multiple factors that I have already discussed on prior charts. The Key for me now is securing my own principal and gains on my $Alts during this retrace. I would be scaling out regardless of price on those coins, based on my own underlying belief that the top of Bitcoin is in.
So let me answer the question many are already thinking in their mind. Could I be wrong about the Top being in? And if I am, what would change my position from Bear to Bull?
This is a fairly easy one to answer, and YES, I could absolutely be wrong! To turn me Bullish again I would need to see Bitcoin regain a weekly close over the .786 Fib. If I saw Price action exceed that level. However, in that scenario, I would have sold only a few points under that level protecting me from the Bear option I see coming. Again, if that happened, I would quickly reenter the market and ride the Bull alongside you all, only missing out on the first initial move over resistance. My answer reminds me about a saying I have heard below:
A wise man once told me, "It is ok to be wrong, but it is NOT ok to stay wrong."
Investing and Trading are like Life, Unpredictable. BUT, where a good technician can help, is helping put the odds in your favor.
That is all for now friends. :)
So let me answer the question many are already thinking in their mind. Could I be wrong about the Top being in? And if I am, what would change my position from Bear to Bull?
This is a fairly easy one to answer, and YES, I could absolutely be wrong! To turn me Bullish again I would need to see Bitcoin regain a weekly close over the .786 Fib. If I saw Price action exceed that level. However, in that scenario, I would have sold only a few points under that level protecting me from the Bear option I see coming. Again, if that happened, I would quickly reenter the market and ride the Bull alongside you all, only missing out on the first initial move over resistance. My answer reminds me about a saying I have heard below:
A wise man once told me, "It is ok to be wrong, but it is NOT ok to stay wrong."
Investing and Trading are like Life, Unpredictable. BUT, where a good technician can help, is helping put the odds in your favor.
That is all for now friends. :)
JT