2024-05-02 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoin

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: Gave you the 60000 target multiple times over the last 10 days and right now the only question you have to answer is, how strong would you rate the buying here below 60000? Last weeks we saw big bull spikes at this level because everyone was in BTFD mode and eager to pump again. Less people do so now but those who do, are the ones who post the most shit on twitter. I gave my wave thesis many weeks ago and it’s pretty fucking accurate so far. Might get a W4 bounce here or sideways before we will be on our way to 50000ish.

current market cycle: Bear trend

key levels: 50000 - 65000

bull case: Bulls are not buying the lows as eagerly because many have given up on their 100k pipedream. The best they can currently hope for is to move sideways and reclaim 60000 but the daily 20ema is big resistance for 4 weeks now and we are making lower lows and lower highs.

bear case: Bears could be fine for now with trading below 60000 and let the market move sideways before the next leg down to 50000. So far this is orderly selling and on my weekly chart you can clearly see the big ass triangle we are forming. Bears have to keep this below 63000 though.

short term: Sideways for W4 before W5 brings us down to around 50000. W4 should stay below 63000.

medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged