Bitcoin: 52K Break Out Starts Wave 5?

Bitcoin continues to find support around the 50,500 area. This is particularly important for intraday strategies. The consolidation that Bitcoin is within is still part of what looks like a Wave 4 configuration. This wave can expand to 48K and even lower and still maintain the integrity of the broader bullish impulse structure. The idea here is to look for trade signals that align with this structure, can capture at least of portion of the next leg higher which can potentially test the 56K area.

Not much has changed on the bigger picture. The 48K area is still the next major support in play. The ideal swing trade scenario would be a test of 48K over the coming week followed by a bullish reversal pattern (see line illustration on chart). I have been describing this scenario for some weeks now and the market simply does not deliver this opportunity.

Keep in mind there is no guarantee the market will present this pull back scenario, AND it is also possible for 48K to break while still maintaining a broader bullish structure. As long as Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1, it would be reasonable to consider longs on the bigger picture.

It is important to WAIT for the setup, especially when it comes to a swing trade. What if 48K is never touched and 50K holds? Then the event to watch for is the bullish break out of 52K. Such a move can lead to a test of the 56K area or higher IF momentum persists. This is what I am considering to be the Wave 5. As I have pointed out many times, once this wave completes, a broader corrective wave is likely to follow and risk on the long side increases dramatically.

All you need to make adequate decisions are just a few essential elements that paint a realistic picture based on price. Trend, support/resistance, candlestick and price patterns draw from recent price history and provide a routine way to gauge potential movements in the near future. These elements can be evaluated on any time frame, and can serve investors as well as day traders alike.

Over complicating analysis is a common mistake which is often part of a larger problem: most traders/investors are unable to think beyond the limitations of their own human nature. This is precisely why the herd mentality exists and offers opportunities to those who recognize it in themselves and others.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.