Opinion:
Despite main stream media yearly inflation print FUD. A glass half full approach would yield a closer look into the CPI MoM. This is the first time it has come lower than the previous period in 2022. It signals a roll-over or at least a retracement and negative effect on the positive slope of core inflation . This is not an absolutely bullish /must buy now signal. But it is a positive and early sign of a plateauing inflation . I expect BTC to stay within the range and re-tap that 23-26k area. Beyond the macro inflation news, today is also the first day the Pi Cycle bitcoin bottom indicator has flagged a buy. All in all, I do not think this is enough to take us out of the range, but I am confident it could give us the fuel needed to re-visit the top.
“We now understand how little we understand about inflation”
-Powell ECB Forum on Central Banking, 29th of June 2022
The CPI print could provide evidence backing a gradual pause to rate hikes and QT. ( CPI lower than previous month; it would indicate a plateauing inflation = Bullish /Risk-On) However, if the CPI remains within its upward slope; no change in course will be possible and more temporary lip service during non-official duties can be expected from FED officials. ( CPI higher than previous month, would indicate inflation has not peaked yet. Therefore, the FED would have more evidence to continue with hikes and claim a lengthier period of hikes and QT may be necessary = Bearish /Risk-Off).
Either way, given the percentage size of the range, it could be that Bitcoin does not exit the range regardless of the CPI print. Outside temporary spikes to the up or downside.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
Despite main stream media yearly inflation print FUD. A glass half full approach would yield a closer look into the CPI MoM. This is the first time it has come lower than the previous period in 2022. It signals a roll-over or at least a retracement and negative effect on the positive slope of core inflation . This is not an absolutely bullish /must buy now signal. But it is a positive and early sign of a plateauing inflation . I expect BTC to stay within the range and re-tap that 23-26k area. Beyond the macro inflation news, today is also the first day the Pi Cycle bitcoin bottom indicator has flagged a buy. All in all, I do not think this is enough to take us out of the range, but I am confident it could give us the fuel needed to re-visit the top.
“We now understand how little we understand about inflation”
-Powell ECB Forum on Central Banking, 29th of June 2022
The CPI print could provide evidence backing a gradual pause to rate hikes and QT. ( CPI lower than previous month; it would indicate a plateauing inflation = Bullish /Risk-On) However, if the CPI remains within its upward slope; no change in course will be possible and more temporary lip service during non-official duties can be expected from FED officials. ( CPI higher than previous month, would indicate inflation has not peaked yet. Therefore, the FED would have more evidence to continue with hikes and claim a lengthier period of hikes and QT may be necessary = Bearish /Risk-Off).
Either way, given the percentage size of the range, it could be that Bitcoin does not exit the range regardless of the CPI print. Outside temporary spikes to the up or downside.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.