Nobody cares about data, and pauses drag on

Yesterday's data on jobless claims in the US clearly showed that the markets are now interested in nothing but stimulus in the US. The jobless data came out, if not excellent, then certainly good. At least in terms of tendency. The number of individuals who are currently receiving unemployment benefits fell by a million during the week, and initial ones decreased by more than 50K, dropping below 800K. This is certainly the reason for the growth of the US stock market. But no. The data was ignored completely.

The reason for this behavior is that now everything is lost against the background of the global focus - the fate of the stimulus package in the United States. Everyone is tired of this topic, but Democrats, the White House and Republicans continue to pull rubber. The formal reason is the search for a compromise. Real - no one needs an agreement right now on the eve of the elections, because stimulus will give political dividends to the side that shouts first that they won. Given that initially the initiative came from the Democrats, it is clear that they will ascribe to themselves the laurels of the savior of the US economy.

The Republicans, who, judging by the polls, are already losing on all fronts, starting from the presidency, ending with the House of Representatives and the Senate, are not interested in this. Especially when you consider that their only chance is the Senate.

In general, we continue to bet on the fact that there will be no stimulus before the elections, which means that the US stock market will remain under permanent downward pressure. Moreover, the earnings season cannot yet be called super-successful. The airlines have shown that the depression in the air transportation market is still deep and the companies are by and large on the verge of bankruptcy. Even Coca-Cola had to admit that the closure of cinemas and other entertainment establishments had a negative impact on their financial results.

There is also no clarity on the Brexit fronts. Although the sides returned to the negotiating table, there was no breakthrough after that. And it is hardly worth expecting it in the next few days. So, the growth of the pound can be used to sell it. However, the decline will be a reason for buying. Naturally, subject to the status quo in the negotiation process.